UK Election

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martinkil
Posts: 746
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

UK Election

Postby martinkil » Thu May 18, 2017 1:28 pm

Have the Tories just shot themselves in the foot.

The latest announcement in the Tory manifesto about the value of the house being included when assessing social care cost is a very brave announcement and shows the level of contempt in which the Labour party are held. It's targets all homeowners, but especially those with very little savings who's main asset is their home which this will directly effect. These will predominantly be ex Labour voters who had been hoping to pass it on to their children intact - along with the reduction of the pension lock to a double from a triple, they are gifts which could be mercilessly exploited by the opposition parties.

You can just see the condemnation

- The Tories are rewarding the spendthrift who didn't want to save for a house and will now have their social care paid for by those who worked hard bought a house and saved for their retirement.

I've already had some bets on Labour getting 200-249 seats (and a small bit on 250-299) as well as 30-34.9% of the vote ( and a little on 35-39.9%)
I though they were lost, but it's a little more likely I might collect now.

martinkil
Posts: 746
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:20 pm

The last 4 days have seen 5 polls with the difference between the Tories and Labour at 12%, 10%, 8%, 6% and 3%.
The polls have been tightening - how much depends on what turnout model the polling company uses - here's an interesting article

https://www.research-live.com/amp-page.html?id=5023222&name=the-pollsters-experimental-election

martinkil
Posts: 746
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:22 pm

Another article about the polls and their differences

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

mickyj25
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: UK Election

Postby mickyj25 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:14 pm

Have the Torys shot themselves in the foot? The results today show they have, good call about the social care plans, but did you collect as it was a higher % of the vote than first predicted?

martinkil
Posts: 746
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:45 pm

Yes I won on the Labour 200+ (had traded so I won about the same whichever won)
Labour vote % and a few other markets

Also using the Yougov model - https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - picked up with - Ipswich 9/1, Canterbury 25/1, Newcastle-under-lyme 3/1, Enfield Southgate 4/1 and I'm still waiting for Kensington 25/1.

mickyj25
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: UK Election

Postby mickyj25 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:54 pm

Nice result for Kensington. !!!

martinkil
Posts: 746
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:06 am

Yes it was, but the Canterbury 25/1 is the one I was most proud.

Even though there was a Tory lead of 9,700 at the 2015 general election, the experimental - https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - model gave it as Labour leaning, and during the day there were online photo's of long line of students at the polling booths, including at the University of Kent.

On the http://www.constituencyexplorer.org.uk/ ... ss_section - site the Canterbury report -

http://data.parliament.uk/resources/con ... 000619.pdf -

gave Full-time students as 19,786 in a population of around 88,000 16+

All in all 25/1 looked a good price for a punt


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