UK Election

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martinkil
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

UK Election

Postby martinkil » Thu May 18, 2017 1:28 pm

Have the Tories just shot themselves in the foot.

The latest announcement in the Tory manifesto about the value of the house being included when assessing social care cost is a very brave announcement and shows the level of contempt in which the Labour party are held. It's targets all homeowners, but especially those with very little savings who's main asset is their home which this will directly effect. These will predominantly be ex Labour voters who had been hoping to pass it on to their children intact - along with the reduction of the pension lock to a double from a triple, they are gifts which could be mercilessly exploited by the opposition parties.

You can just see the condemnation

- The Tories are rewarding the spendthrift who didn't want to save for a house and will now have their social care paid for by those who worked hard bought a house and saved for their retirement.

I've already had some bets on Labour getting 200-249 seats (and a small bit on 250-299) as well as 30-34.9% of the vote ( and a little on 35-39.9%)
I though they were lost, but it's a little more likely I might collect now.

martinkil
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:20 pm

The last 4 days have seen 5 polls with the difference between the Tories and Labour at 12%, 10%, 8%, 6% and 3%.
The polls have been tightening - how much depends on what turnout model the polling company uses - here's an interesting article

https://www.research-live.com/amp-page.html?id=5023222&name=the-pollsters-experimental-election

martinkil
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:22 pm

Another article about the polls and their differences

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

mickyj25
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: UK Election

Postby mickyj25 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:14 pm

Have the Torys shot themselves in the foot? The results today show they have, good call about the social care plans, but did you collect as it was a higher % of the vote than first predicted?

martinkil
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:45 pm

Yes I won on the Labour 200+ (had traded so I won about the same whichever won)
Labour vote % and a few other markets

Also using the Yougov model - https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - picked up with - Ipswich 9/1, Canterbury 25/1, Newcastle-under-lyme 3/1, Enfield Southgate 4/1 and I'm still waiting for Kensington 25/1.

mickyj25
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: UK Election

Postby mickyj25 » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:54 pm

Nice result for Kensington. !!!

martinkil
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:06 am

Yes it was, but the Canterbury 25/1 is the one I was most proud.

Even though there was a Tory lead of 9,700 at the 2015 general election, the experimental - https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ - model gave it as Labour leaning, and during the day there were online photo's of long line of students at the polling booths, including at the University of Kent.

On the http://www.constituencyexplorer.org.uk/ ... ss_section - site the Canterbury report -

http://data.parliament.uk/resources/con ... 000619.pdf -

gave Full-time students as 19,786 in a population of around 88,000 16+

All in all 25/1 looked a good price for a punt

slothrop
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Re: UK Election

Postby slothrop » Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:53 am

Just signed the petition on social housing Martin. Nice link and definitely worth a gesture.

Having just about survived the crash in the Uk and Ireland I would like to add my contempt to that expressed on the policy of penalising home owners as they approach the need for care in their old age.

The failures to regulate lending, to build affordable housing and plan for an ageing population through the equitable use of general taxation are blights on the political economy on all the British Isles.

They knew we were getting older and they knew we needed care.
They knew successive sales of social housing had depleted that affordable housing, whilst helping to drive prices everywhere yet they just stood by and let banks lend ridiculous amounts to all and sundry.

I'm not against lending and home ownership - they positively encourage folk to feel that they are taking part and making a contribution - but politicians just see such ducks as sitting targets when their flawed macro-economic policy inevitably fails.

And we still have whopping deficits and dodgy banks...

martinkil
Posts: 774
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: UK Election

Postby martinkil » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:26 pm

The public deficit isn't the problem it's private debt which is now at a higher level than before the 2008 crash (we need wage rises).
On the banking front I believe they still have to keep higher levels of reserves so as to keep themselves solvent if there is a bank run, but the Tories are forever wanting to make things easier for the mates (and paymasters) in the city.


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