Special Congressional Elections in Alabama

Any general discussion an go here
martinkil
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Special Congressional Elections in Alabama

Postby martinkil » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:51 am

The forthcoming special Congressional Elections in Alabama on the 12 Dec is very interesting. Normally a Republican victory in this deep red state would be a shoe in, but this is no normal election. The Republican Roy Moore won the Republican primary beating the Trump backed candidate. Calling Roy Moore controversial is an understatement as two of his public statement will underline.

“homosexuality should be illegal,”
"the only thing I know that the Islamic faith has done in this country is 9/11."

Not that these view will go down badly with White evangelical Christians who represent half of Alabama’s electorate, according to exit polls. Even recent allegations of sexual contact with a 14yo, along with several other women who have come forward to accuse him of seeking to date teenagers when he was in his 30's, may not dent his support among republicans.

That said this is probably the best chance for the Democrats to win the state and recent opinion polls make the race very tight giving Moore an average 2.8% lead.

On this basis I would expect Moore to be 1-3 and the Democrat to be 3-1, but currently it's nearer 1-5 and 5-1. Don't get me wrong the Democrats are the underdogs, but many of the opinion polls in the recent Virginia gubernatorial election understated the Democratic eventual support (a 9% win) giving the difference anywhere between a 3% republican lead to a one poll which did give a 9% democratic lead,but most put the lead at 2-4%.

Anyway I feel in these uncertain times that the 6.0 available on Betfair for a Democratic victory might on the one occasion is worth the risk.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .135032133

martinkil
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Special Congressional Elections in Alabama

Postby martinkil » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:43 pm

Two polls out just 24 hours before the special Congressional Elections in Alabama give wildly conflicting pictures. The Emerson College Poll gives Moore (R) a 9 point lead, while a Fox poll gives Jones a 10 point lead.

martinkil
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Special Congressional Elections in Alabama

Postby martinkil » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:24 pm

Having backed the democrats at 6.0, I've laid back at 2.9 for a free bet.
This one really could go either way and it all depends on turnout.

martinkil
Posts: 811
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Special Congressional Elections in Alabama

Postby martinkil » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:19 pm

Turnout was projected to be between 20-25% which the secretary of state continued to insist would be the expected number well into the day, but from reports it was obvious it would be bigger - 40% is what it turned out to be.

This allowed Jones to pile up the number in the metropolitan areas and to squeeze out a small but historic Democratic win in a deeply red state.


Return to “Down The Pub”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest