race selection Process

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Earlybird
Posts: 331
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:01 pm

race selection Process

Postby Earlybird » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:34 pm

Being in my fifties, i am often in danger of becoming obsolete, especially with technological advances being made, my children are for ever trying to convince me i'm no longer needed lol... i know how to use a computer to the capacity where i can get my needs met with racing matters, however i often wish i could do more with the thing, i know there are very clever ways to work and manipulate data, and people being very creative with software. but for me i' am still very much in the stone age with pen and paper, but it works, and perhaps some of these old methods may still be pertinent today as they were when i was 16. i see so many people on social networking sites, the internet, groups and forums, all following as if they have in their hands the gospel according to the bookie, odds on shots and favs, and all backed with the discrimination of a Thompson Machine Gun.. They post selections with the word Info, Dead Cert, the trainer says...with the fear of missing out- in all my experience if there is one thing i have learnt, it is the the only dead cert is the one the course judge has declared the winner,,

when i was a kid i was lucky enough to be taught about punting by an old bloke , who i saw as a hero, if there was one thing that he drove home to me it's "if you can't read a race before the off, then you have no business backing anything in it" he taught me to find races types that appeal to me , and once a horse has been identified, start with, why is it in the race, and then eliminate the others by working out why they should not be in the race,

earlier today there was a brief discussion about the old adage horses for courses, and this is still equally as true as when it was first uttered, except today i have modified to horse for course types, just as horses will run better on certain going equally they tend to run on certain course types Sharp, uphill, galloping , sharp galloping etc, and this can be tied in with the animals gait, overstepping, high knee action, long or short back.

some of these thing can tell you, not only how the horse is going to run, but where it may run to it's optimum,

on a slight Digression, i got friendly with a bloke a few years back who is an equine vet, he told me ( and i will explain it the best i can) that horses, no matter how good they are on turf, when switching to all weather, generally do not do too well, against seasoned dirt runners and may no find their feet for quite a while. However decent horses with a fast pace switching from all weather to turf often find another half - 1 length improvement and the reason is apparently simple, it's down to traction... Dirt, sand etc is soft and easily displaced by the horse under foot , so they are technically scrabbling just after the break, Turf is less movable because even in really muddy conditions the roots of grass will bind together, and give the traction a horse needs to find forward momentum...

now obviously this is not in every case but that wee bit of information gave me a few ideas for both laying and backing to return a decent profit ,

i try to find angles in a race that bookies may have missed, my mind set in race selection is fairly simple, a lot of coffee and a decent pipe of tobacco, (optional ) and the attitude that i am in a better position than a bookie... for i only have to work one race , however bookies have tons of races, golf tennis football hockey darts ...yada yada i have all the time in the world.. i start with why is the horse in the race and work from the ground up... but i guess my point is this better prices are there to be found, i know lots of successful fav backers, but even then they do their homework, for me i rarely want to punt £100 on a horse to win say £15, but each to there own

i have recently started to configure winning distances into my process, but that's on going and if anybody has any ideas or is indeed doing something similar but successfully then please share

it's still a learning curve , but the more i study the luckier i get

i wrote this, not with ooooh aren't i a cocky sod, but because a few people have asked me how i do what i do, it is really hard to explain what to look for and if it could go in a nutshell "when it's going well don't Deviate"

Cheers EB

philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: race selection Process

Postby philipg » Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:58 pm

Eb, A very good read indeed. What ever you use to find your going . Stick with it through thick and thin. I use Time form. I like yourself am a pen a paper man. Also I use a mechanical stopwatch, Unbelievable I know but I like it. Also I swear by it. We have a good crowd on hear, and what Martin has brought together hear should be applauded. I have said it before and I will say it again we should organise a race day. A big meeting nice hotel or B&B whatever? the deal is we pay for the boss and his wife if she would attend. Then we skin the bookies. Who will bring the computer and laptop though :lol:

SteveV
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:20 pm

Re: race selection Process

Postby SteveV » Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:03 pm

Nice post EB. Being of the same vintage as yourself I have worked out over the years that the only methods that have been profitable for me are those based on trainer patterns, or angles if you like. 'Form' in the traditional sense is pretty irrelevant in the typical bog standard handicaps that we are faced with on a daily basis so its more a question of interpretation and reading between the lines to get an idea when a horse might be ready to be let off the leash or, more charitably, capable of better performances than it has shown recently. Of course if you want to back odds on favourites in Novice Hurdles then 'form' will mean something but if you want to get decent priced winners you have to look beyond the obvious.

Buzzit
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: race selection Process

Postby Buzzit » Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:31 am

Hello All, Thanks for the read.. And the note on AW.. and I agree that the only way to be serious about a race (especially a high grade race) is through a process of horse elimination based on the knowledge you have gained through a lifetime of enjoyment and fustration while following horses..

I was once thrown out of a trainers lounge for forgetting where I was when I claimed two of the local trainers were rigging races (they weren't but the fact was they dominated in the local area and often had two horses in a race and the hard part was trying to work out which one was going to be doing the pacing..) Always makes me chuckle.

I am always amazed by the amount of people willing to risk so much on an odds on favourite.. Especially when odds on have wildly varying lifetime strike rates dependant on race class, and odds on is never a true reflection of the chance of a horse winning a race because the sheep keep putting more cash on it.

I'm sure you have heard before : 75% of races are won by the first three favourites, so it is a lot harder to find the value in the remaining 25%.. Or as I like to generalise another way.. In a 16 horse field at the base level each horse outside the first three in betting starts with a 2% chance of victory so afor an outsider you need to get that horse to a % you are comfortable to bet on so you need to take other horses out of the equation.

You might of guessed I like to start my elimination process by trainer...
Then jockey - Then the odd owner - and then I might finally get around to the horse.. If an odds on selection is looking likely I move on to a new race.

I will say though that you can make consistent profit by only selecting horses paying 3/1 or less in non c1&2 races but if your selection in a race is odds on - then you do not bet on the race. You should achieve consistent winners every day of the week doing this. (You may be surprised as an example just how often and with regularity favourites win when they are paying in a range from evens through to 3/1 and the second favourite is 7/2 or greater..)


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