Football - Wales vs Andorra

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gpevans
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:03 am

Football - Wales vs Andorra

Postby gpevans » Tue Oct 13, 2015 2:31 pm

After a few successful punts on the football this season combined with some cajoling from MartinK, I've decided to put a post up here.
For football betting, I prefer some of the more esoteric markets that are available from bookies outside of Betfair. That said, the best value on the more traditional markets will be found on BF.

So... Wales vs Andorra. Wales qualified for their first championship finals since the 1950s with Israel's defeat to Cyprus at the weekend and so the match this evening in Cardiff should have a more celebratory air to it. Tonight's opponents, Andorra, are ranked 205th out of 208 in the world, so there is unlikely to be much value in the match odds market when they are playing the world's 8th best team (according to FIFA rankings...), Wales (1/20 best priced).

Instead, I've looked at some other markets. Looking at Andorra's recent away matches, they're not shy of tackling in the box! They've had a penalty successfully converted against them in four of their past five away matches (9 penalties from 11 have been scored in their past 10 matches home and away). William Hill go 9/4 on a penalty to be awarded, and Skybet go 3/1 for Wales to score a penalty. Also of interest on the Skybet site is 2 or more penalties to be scored in the game at 25/1. In the Premier league and (more interestingly in Champions League and La Liga), this is usually priced at 50/1. This has happened twice in their past ten matches, although both times this was in Andorra. (apologies for formatting below)

10.10.2015 ECQ Andorra 1-4 Belgium - 3 pens (2 scored)
06.09.2015 ECQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-0 Andorra - 0 pens
03.09.2015 ECQ Israel 4-0 Andorra - 1 pen (1 scored)

12.06.2015 ECQ Andorra 1-3 Cyprus - 1 pen (0 scored)
06.06.2015 FRL Andorra 0-1 Equatorial Guinea - 0 pens (friendly)
28.03.2015 ECQ Andorra 0-3 Bosnia-Herzegovina - 0 pens
16.11.2014 ECQ Cyprus 5-0 Andorra - 1 pen (1 scored)
13.10.2014 ECQ Andorra 1-4 Israel - 2 pens (2 scored)
10.10.2014 ECQ Belgium 6-0 Andorra - 1 pen (1 scored)
09.09.2014 ECQ Andorra 1-2 Wales - 1 pen (1 scored)
26.03.2014 FRL Indonesia 1-0 Andorra - 1 pen (1 scored)
05.03.2014 FRL Andorra 0-3 Moldova - 0 pens

The referee for tonight's match is Kevin Blom. In the Dutch Eredivise this season he's refereed 5 matches and has given 4 penalties. He has only refereed 4 matches in European Championship qualifiers, but has given 2 penalties and a red card in those matches (as well as 20 yellows). I think that the 5.5 available for a red card on Betfair looks okay, but I'll be sticking with the penalty bets myself. There's the danger that this could end up with the atmosphere of a friendly, but given Andorra's recent record, I wouldn't be surprised to see a penalty or two.

Bets

A penalty to be awarded @ 9/4 (William Hill (or if better available on Betfair (only 2.02 in the blue side available at time of this post)))
Wales to score a penalty @ 3/1 (Skybet)
2 or more penalties to be scored @ 25/1 (Skybet)

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Football - Wales vs Andorra

Postby shakeshuck » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:30 am

Sadly no penalties, but you were right about the yellow cards - 10 in one match. I don't know what those odds would have been...


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