French Elections

Any general discussion an go here
martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

French Elections

Postby martinkil » Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:02 pm

The French elections seem in a state of flux, but a possible nice trading position may have presented itself in the shape of - Francois Baroin - if the previous front runner Francois Fillon decided to call it a day.

Prosecutors have decided there is sufficient evidence to open a full judicial inquiry into abuse of public funds by Francois Fillon and on 15 March the examining magistrate is expected to place him under formal investigation.

It would be unprecedented for someone under formal investigation to continue with their presidential bid, and with Alain Juppe making it clear he won't stand, there are growing calls for Francois Baroin to take over from Fillon.

Available at around 15.0 - it's risky, but might be worth a punt since his price will half if he replaces Fillion.


My other position is that the left will come to their senses and that the left winger Melenchon will drop out and leave the way for - Benoit Hamon (55.0) to give the socialists a small chance of getting through to the second round. Their combined polling number might get them through to the second round.

Benoit Hamon at 55.0 is really risky :)

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:00 pm

So much for French elections - as soon as I mention him - Francois Baroin - shoots out from 15 to 50 - kiss of death or what!

Steve
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:20 pm

Re: French Elections

Postby Steve » Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:58 pm

To be fair Martin it was a far shout, as Fillon was widely expected to stand down. Very unexpected that he has decided to carry on. A politicians wife now has her snout in the trough using public funds for their own financial gain. Quelle surprise !!!!!!!!

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:44 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens to Fillon in the polls. If he stays around the 19/20% then there's no way he gets through to the second round. They need a candidate who can attract some of Macron's centrist votes ... which might though see them lose some to Le Penn.

But he/she would just need to beat Macron for second place in the first round to go through.

If only the left winger Mélenchon could be convinced to drop out - now that would throw the cat amongst the socialist pigeons!

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:55 pm

Just noticed that François Asselineau - a far right Frexit candidate - has collected 480 "sponsorships of elected officials" (500 required) so presumably will soon be appearing in the polls. I wonder if this will effect Le Pen's numbers ?

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/en-direct/a-chaud/34281-presidentielle-candidats-officiellement-depasse-parrainages.html&prev=search

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:41 am

With under three weeks to go to the first round of voting the race is getting interesting.
Le Penn and Macron tie at the top. Fillion is hanging on by his finger tips, and Mélenchon has surged from 11% to 15% in the last two weeks since the first presidential debate.

The following view needs to be treated with care since I have already bet on some dodo's -

Francois Baroin - 15.0 - who didn't make the final line up - and
Benoît Hamon - 55 - who's dropping like a stone.

By all accounts Mélenchon did well in the first debate, so I had another saver on at 170 - and having had a little post debate surge in the polls he's now sub 40. He's a good orator so should do well in tonight's debate - he'll attack Le Pen, since that is where, some much needed votes are.
The other main left candidate Hamon is currently on 11% and with Mélenchon having the momentum it's possible that Hamon could lose another 2-3%.

Mélenchon is currently 36.0 on BF, and of all the candidates is the best placed for another big move in the market. If he joins Fillion on the 17/18% mark then considering 43% of french voter are uncertain about who'll they will vote for, it really is all to play for and theses debates could be really important.

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:20 am

By all account Mélenchon did well in the debate, just as he did in the first. A snap poll of viewers gave

Mélenchon: 25%
Macron: 21%
Fillon: 15%
Le Pen: 11%

This may well get repeated on the news programs and could well give Mélenchon a boost in the polls over the next week If he can match Fillon it should allow his price to drop to the teens. BF price 30/32

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:45 pm

The five latest polls

Le Pen / Macron / Fillon / Mélenchon
23.0/ 23.0 / 19.0 / 19.0 - BVA
24.5/ 23.5 / 18.5 / 17.0 - Ifop-Fiducial
23.0/ 24.0 / 19.0 / 18.0 - Harris
25.0/ 24.0 / 20.0 / 16.0 - OpinionWay
23.0/ 23.5 / 18.5 / 18.0 - Odoxa

It's the Fillon / Mélenchon battle which is interesting. Mélenchon has hit 18/19% in 3 of the last 5 polls for the first time and is now level pegging or only 1% and 0.5% behind Fillon.
Their prices on betfair 6.0 and 20.0, yet Mélenchon has all the momentum.

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 09, 2017 8:20 am

Looking at the weekly BVA poll -

The latest BVA poll has Le Pen 23.0, Macron 23.0, Fillon 19.0, Mélenchon 19.0, Hamon 8.5.
The change from last weeks BVA poll is - Le Pen -1, Macron -2, Fillon 0, Mélenchon +4, Hamon -3

If Mélenchon can peel between 0.5 and 1% from Macron, Le Pen, and Hamon (which he more than did last week) we would have Mélenchon, Macron and Le Pen all around the 22% mark, well within the margin of error, that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons, and the pollstars would have to include Mélenchon in final round runnoffs with the both Le Pen and Macron.

One of the reasons why Mélenchon is so overpriced (in my opinion) is that Mélenchon enjoyed the same momentum in the run up to the first round in 2012, when polls put him at 16 percent (mainly 13/14%), just behind Le Pen. In the end he gained 11 percent of the vote.

But remember in 2012 there were no debates (in which he does well) before the first round vote, and that year it was a socialist who won and the two main parties with Hollande and Sarkozy both polling in the 26-29% range at this time before the first poll- those two parties are polling 10% and 20% this time round.

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:05 pm

Mélenchon has hit 12.0 on Betfair .... what to do ?

I've seen several articles putting forward that Hamon has almost hit his floor and for Mélenchon to go much higher he'll need to strip votes from Marcon and Le Pen. There is also much talk about how he surged in the polls in 2012 then faded back.

2012 was very different. Mélenchon was more of a protest candidate, and the two main parties had their men at 26-29% in the polls (Mélenchon and Le Pen were 14-16%), so there was never any hope of going through to the second round. This time it's different with the two front runners on 23-25%, and a politically more astute Mélenchon looking more like a statesman than in 2012. He learnt a lot from 2012, and his team are making sure that he has events planned right until the voting starts, something which was missing from 2012.
There are also indications that Macron numbers may be soft, with him being the current "Not Le Pen" choice.

With the ongoing momentum, I think there is still more to come for Mélenchon, and his price should be in single figures before the end of the week. I'm holding on to my stake. If it fizzles out, then so be it, but my gut tells me there more juice to come.


Return to “Down The Pub”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests