French Elections

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martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:47 pm

There was an interesting move on betfair this morning for Mélenchon when a rumour that the Socialist candidate Hamon was going to withdraw. With between 8/9% of the votes, it would have been decisive move for Mélenchon (he touched 9.2 from 14 on BF - now 10.5/11.0). The rumour proved false but there is mounting pressure on Hamon supporters to switch to Mélenchon to give the left a voice in the final round of voting.

It was the hope of the left's vote coalescing around a single candidate which prompted my initial bet on Hamon (and my saver on Mélenchon).

It's unlikely the Hamon will withdraw - there are financial implications - but the first elected socialist - Jean-Yves Lalanne, Mayor of Billère - has called for the withdrawal of the socialist candidate Benoît Hamon in favor of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Even if he doesn't withdraw, if there are enough calls to switch to Mélenchon "for the good of the Left", then the polls may move further up for Mélenchon at the expense of Hamon. His expected floor of 7% may just have turned into a pit of 3%!

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:27 pm

The two latest polls show the leaders dropping the the chasers gaining

The latest BVA poll has Le Pen 22.0, Macron 23.0, Fillon 20.0, Mélenchon 20.0, Hamon 7.5.
The change from last weeks BVA poll is - Le Pen -1, Macron =, Fillon +1, Mélenchon +1, Hamon -1

The latest IPSOS poll has Le Pen 22.0, Macron 22.0, Fillon 19.0, Mélenchon 20.0, Hamon 7.5.
The change from last weeks IPSOS poll is - Le Pen -2, Macron -2, Fillon +1, Mélenchon +1.5, Hamon -0.5

Just 3 points between the four in both polls.

Mélenchon has dropped into single figures - 8.8, and I see no reason to think he won't drop some more over the weekend.

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:20 am

The final set of polls will come out later today.

In recent days Macron has been gaining (solid 23/24%) and if the polls are accurate will definitely go through to the second round.

Le Pen has been in free fall the last two weeks dropping from 24/25% to 21/22%, much of that has come from the Non-partisan crowd where her support has dropped from 30% to 20%.

Fillon is solid between 19% and 20%, but hasn't gained much from Le Pen's fall. His best hope is for party loyalties to take over in the betting booth.

Melenchon is solid 18.5/19.5%. Since Hamon has dropped to 7/7.5% he's relying on the "useful vote" concept to convince some of the remaining Hamon voters to switch.

With a margin of error between 1.5% and 2% this is still a really close contest and the final polls will be very interesting

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:20 am

I think it might be worth taking a punt on Macron to win the first round at 7-4 (3.0 on BF).

In the 2012 election the last polls from the 8 main polling companies had Hollande beating Sarkozy by 0, 0, 0, 0.5, 1.0, 3.0, 3.5 and 3.5 - he won by 1.45%

The last polls from the 7 main polling companied this years have Macron beating Le Pen by: 0, 1.0, 1.0 2.0, 2.0, 2.5, 3.5. On that basis alone Macron should be favourite.

The argument is that the polls under count Le Pen's support. She scored 17.9 in the last election in 2012 and he last 8 poll numbers were: 14, 15.5, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 17.
So she scored 2% points higher than the average of her last numbers. To win she would need to do that again. The market is priced as if she WILL do that again.

Macron is no sure thing, but based on the polling numbers and the divisive nature of Le Pen, I really think the prices should be reversed. The one final nail in Le Pen's coffin is Donald Trump. We've seen what can happen when we protest too much - maybe the French will look at Trump and turn away from a abyss which is le Pen!

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 23, 2017 11:17 am

There is a market on Turnout.

In 2012 it was 79.47%, and the fav for this year is the range 79.01 - 82.

In the 2012 polls not that many polls measured the expected turnout, but those that did had it down at 85% or more (Abstention 14% or lower) only two had Abstention above that at 27% and 28%.

This year though it's much different. The last polls from the 5 main polling companies which measure it have Abstention at 20%, 27%, 27%, 29%, 30%.

On that basis I think there is a very good chance of turnout being less that 79% this year. How low it will go is anyone's guess.

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:32 pm

Looks like I might have got the turnout wrong. Today 12;00 is very similar to 2012 - which had an eventual turnout of 79.48

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:48 pm

An early Exit poll (published in Belgium) gives Macron 24% Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20.5 and melenchon 18% - very similar to the polls -
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201704231052909373-exit-poll-le-pen-macron/

The same exit poll in 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/french-presidential-elections-are-underway - gave -


RTBF quoted first projections based on counted votes from hundreds of polling stations, which by law cannot be published in France until the last polling stations close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), as showing Sarkozy and Hollande would go through to the second round on May 6.

Hollande was ahead on the first ballot with 27 percent of the vote, with Sarkozy on 25 percent. RTBF said extreme-right leader Marine Le Pen came in third with 20 percent.
Actual result in 2012 was Hollande 28.6, Sarkozy 27.18, Le Pen 17.9, so the early exit polls had them in the correct order, just the amounts slightly wrong.

This is of course only indicative - things can change

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: French Elections

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:40 am

All ended up brilliantly with Macron winning and the turnout of 78.23 - just below the crucial 79%.
I even traded Melenchon back at an average of 12.0 (he went as low as 7.0).

Time to look at the German Elections later in the year :)


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