Tory Leadership
Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:22 am
Here are a couple of posts I put in the betfair community forum concerning an outside bet for the Tory leadership on Rory Stewart.
Berk or not, the question is whether he can get traction within the contest. After an initial surge down to around 12-1 mark he's back out to 25-1 not helped by the rule changes with his 4 declared supporting MP's. But he's trying a different sort of campaign. Rather then traipsing around westminster begging for votes, he's taken to social media local radio and podcasts to get his message out with lots of small public meetings – he'll talk to anyone, even ISIS!
He's not just talking about Brexit, his two main policy thrusts are two million new homes over 5 years funded via housing bonds and adult social care for those retirees – it will be interesting to see how he intends to fund that.
His strategy is to show his fellow MP's that he can attract the younger slice of the population back to the Tory party and hence make it electable in the future when it's current ageing base has died off.
He's also being very aggressive against “no deal brexit” accusing anyone proposing it as being disingenuous since there is no way it will get through this current parliament. His suggestion for a citizens assembly is interesting, although this has already been done back in September 2017 - http://citizensassembly.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/CAB-summary-report.pdf – The point he's making is that we are a divided country and the only way forward is if no-one wins.
There's every chance that he'll be able to scrape together 8 MP to get his name into the fray especially since there is a large rump of Tory moderates still to declare who they will support.
He's currently available at 26 here and 25-1 with many bookmakers. So yes this is very much an outsider bet, but we live in interesting times and although Rory Stewart may well have his eye on the next leadership election stranger things have happened – just look across the Atlantic!!
Berk or not, the question is whether he can get traction within the contest. After an initial surge down to around 12-1 mark he's back out to 25-1 not helped by the rule changes with his 4 declared supporting MP's. But he's trying a different sort of campaign. Rather then traipsing around westminster begging for votes, he's taken to social media local radio and podcasts to get his message out with lots of small public meetings – he'll talk to anyone, even ISIS!
He's not just talking about Brexit, his two main policy thrusts are two million new homes over 5 years funded via housing bonds and adult social care for those retirees – it will be interesting to see how he intends to fund that.
His strategy is to show his fellow MP's that he can attract the younger slice of the population back to the Tory party and hence make it electable in the future when it's current ageing base has died off.
He's also being very aggressive against “no deal brexit” accusing anyone proposing it as being disingenuous since there is no way it will get through this current parliament. His suggestion for a citizens assembly is interesting, although this has already been done back in September 2017 - http://citizensassembly.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/CAB-summary-report.pdf – The point he's making is that we are a divided country and the only way forward is if no-one wins.
There's every chance that he'll be able to scrape together 8 MP to get his name into the fray especially since there is a large rump of Tory moderates still to declare who they will support.
He's currently available at 26 here and 25-1 with many bookmakers. So yes this is very much an outsider bet, but we live in interesting times and although Rory Stewart may well have his eye on the next leadership election stranger things have happened – just look across the Atlantic!!