MMA/Combat sports

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LoveWinners
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MMA/Combat sports

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:48 am

As im sitting up waiting for the main card which is scheduled for 3Am i thought it might be good to a thread on this and future cards.


A sport i have watched since ufc1 that i purchased on VHS :o A lot of progress since those no holds bared fights into fully sanctioned sports entertainment and a few decent betting opportunities pop up along the way.

I created a simple model for fun that gives me a rough guide but its far from accurate yet and often so far off the markets i know its no where i want it , hopefully creating a thread and forcing myself to post will encourage me to put needed effort in.

Markets can be volitile for such events so bf for outrights but round betting i use regular and exchanges when i feel like having a bet..I can Seem pointless having a model if you dont bet all value bets it throws up in every event BUT im using it as part of math/feel strat.

highlighted fight to show an example.


Anthony Pettis v Nate Diaz



Two strikers (different strengths) that are both well rounded as we would expect. I think Pettis has the advantage in the striking and his footwork and kicks will score early on Diaz. One huge thing that Diaz has in his favour is his heart and will to win....he soaks up damage well and keeps on coming forward. Diaz is bigger and rarely gasses out so ill be looking at markets that underplay value in the way i see the fight going and see what price the model throws up?


So the outright market is

Nate Diaz 2.2
Anthony Pettis 1.81

model output (full)
Nate Diaz 2.3
Anthony Pettis 1.7

There looks like some juice in the outrights as they stand but i dont bet big at all as the model isnt where id like it to be so R vs R isnt to my liking.

Method of Victory

Diaz by KO TKO or DQ 6.6
Diaz by Dec / Tech Dec 4
Diaz by Submission 8
Pettis by KO TKO or DQ 6
Pettis by Dec / Tech Dec 2.96
Pettis by Submission 12.5
Draw or Technical Draw 38


I think there could be some value here with a decision with for pettis for 2 reasons -
1). Model output is 2.38 (inc 7% error)
2) Pettis should score early and can see him taking the first 2 rounds if he uses his footwork and speed.

The problem for me is R vs R is ok with a 7% error margin but as stated with the model where it is and my limited bet sizing at this point in time id like a tad more.

The way i feel this fight goes then round betting is my way into this fight from a betting point of view. Taking a few things into account here
pettis starting off fast
Diaz's break in competition
pettis' ko stats (16/18 in first 2 rounds backs up his overall use of energy )
model price.

Bet £9 round 1 @10/1 WH
Bet £11 round 2 ko @11/1 WH

Its a tight fight as market and model indicate and anything can happen in the blink of an eye but i'm happy to have a few small bets on a pettis ko in the first two rounds at the odds on offer.

So all that needs is diaz to ko pettis in 30ss :lol: to remnd me its the fight game

until next time.

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: MMA/Combat sports

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:29 am

Quick review...Diaz wins by decision , its was a clinic by nate with pettis looking gun shy from the get go which is disapointing for him ,he's bounced back before but he will struggle badly against a top 5 at 170 ..I will have to build a momentum fig into model to show this when i get some time.


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