2016 US Presidential Election

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martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:17 pm

Two new polls for South Carolina ARG which give Clinton and unchanged 65/27 lead over Sanders, and CSB/YouGuv which puts the difference at 59/40 which after the first two results is more believable.

The YouGuv poll still gives Clinton a 19% point lead (down from 22% in Jan) which is going to be difficult to close in the next two weeks, but a good showing in Nevada (Clinton out to 1.86 and drifting on betfair) would help.

There is also a very interesting analysis of the YouGuv poll which looks at the demograph of the poll against the 2004/2008 turnouts of black voters and speculates that the gap could be closer to 10%, and with two weeks left for phone banking and canvassing there's every chance of a significant closing of the gap.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/45tien/how_to_win_in_south_carolina_its_a_lot_closer/

The essence of the argument is that in 2004 the democratic primary 47% of those who voted were black, but in 2008 55% % of those who voted were black, but that was for Obama. The expectation is that Clinton won't be as inspiring as Obama and the black voter turnout could well go down to 2004 levels, even with Sanders getting the young vote out. The sample in the YouGuv Poll had 62% black, which inflates Clintons numbers since amongst Whites Sanders wins 63% to 36%.

There is also anecdotal evidence that Sanders could well canvas and phone bank better than Clinton:

On the "ground game" front - As of last week, the Clinton campaign had only two campaign offices in South Carolina: one in Charleston and another in the capital, Columbia, with just 14 full-time staffers including state director Clay Middleton. The campaign also has nine “get out the vote” sites – smaller-scale sites devoted to turnout – across the state.
The Sanders campaign, meanwhile, had 240 staffers on the ground as of last week – 80 percent of them African-American – spread across 10 offices statewide.

On Betfair, the South Carolina democratic primary spread for Clinton is currently 1.05/1.11, I've laid Clinton at an average of 1.10, I'm not expecting a miracle, and I know it risky, but at the odds I'm prepared to give it a go, and hope a poll comes out in the next two weeks with the gap down to 10%.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:10 pm

Nevada's over and I'm afraid it's time to close down most of my bets on Mr Sanders. It would have been nice if he could have persevered, but those pesky African-Americans wouldn't "feel the burn". I'm leaving some profit in case he wins - lets face it Clinton could yet be charged for those darn emails.

Since I have a penchant for outsiders I'm going to have a little on John Kasich for both the Republican nominee - at 44, and President - at 100.


Bush has finally dropped out and Carson can't be far behind, since he has no conceivable path to victory.

This leaves a field of 4 with Super Tuesday on the horizon

Trump leads the field and at this moment in time is the most likely nominee. His greatest problem is that he's a marmite candidate, you either love him, or hate him.

Cruiz is a god fearing crazy man, but as long as Trump stays in the race his right wing stance and anti establishment position means he's hit a ceiling. He's done well so far via a very strong ground game in Iowa and South Carolina along with the support of evangelical Christians. They can take you just so far.

This leaves just the two "establishment" candidates, Marco Rubio and John Kasich.

Rubio is obviously the favourite of the two but his relatively poor showing in New Hampshire and inability to get a clear second in South Carolina have rather dimmed his sparkle. If he picks up most of Jeb Bush's poll number it will push him into a clear second behind Trump.

Kasich is a bit of a wild card. He campaigned strongly in New Hampshire and managed a second. He did the minimum in South Carolina, but his momentum from NH allowed him to effectively tie for 4th with Bush and Carson. On the expectations front he won. It will be interesting to see how many of the Bush polling numbers come his way, and if any of the republican backers are tempted to bankroll him. His price is obviously reflective of his current polling position and he appears to be hanging on in there until the Sate of which he is Governor - Ohio - votes on 15 march in a "winner takes all" primary which would yield 66 delegates.
So, for a vary small outlay there is a change that a favourable poll of primary result could move the market in our direction.

There is of course another possibility that he'll be "convinced" that it would be best for the party if he dropped out - but that's another reason why we're getting such a good price - so be aware this is a VERY risky bet

Buzzit
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Buzzit » Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:39 pm

"Ted needs to be the crusader against Washington that he is. That's it. Nothing more cute than that," tweeted Amanda Carpenter, a former top aide in Cruz's Senate office who is now a CNN contributor.

"It is time to expose Trump," one pro-Cruz fundraiser, granted anonymity to candidly assess the campaign, told CNN.

The worries come after Cruz finished third in South Carolina, where evangelical or born-again Christians made up 74% of the GOP electorate. Making things worse for Cruz, Trump captured all of the 50 delegates up for grabs. If Cruz can't win one delegate with demographics like that, the fears are Super Tuesday won't be much better without a change in tactics.

In the eyes of the frustrated, Cruz has been unable to effectively neutralize Rubio and turn it into a genuine two-way race. Rubio's second-place showing in South Carolina has made him into a threatening candidate who has shown the ability to drag Cruz into the mud and strip votes away from Republicans anxious about nominating Trump.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Feb 25, 2016 4:33 pm

I can't see a path to the Nomination for Cruz, even with Carson's Evangelical supporters - assuming they migrate to him. He would need either one of Rubio, Kaisch, or Jebs newly released supporters to migrate to him, and that's unlikely to happen.

In the last 4 National Republican polls Trump has averaged 37, Rubio/Kasich/Bush 30.5 and Cruz/Carson 26.75.

Cruz's home state of Texas votes on 1 March and currently Cruz and Trump are running neck and neck. Cruz will undoubtedly try to get ahead, but there isn't much time and if he loses his home state then his support could decline even more. Even if he wins there isn't much hope while Trump stays in the contest, and I can't see him leaving anytime soon.

For Rubio and Kasich March 15 is their key date when both Florida and Ohio vote in winner takes all contests.

In Florida a Quinnipiac University poll today (25-Feb) has Trump crushing Rubio 44 - 28, so he has a lead of 16 points to overturn.

In Ohio a Quinnipiac University poll earlier in the week has Trump leading g Kasich 31 - 26 (Cruz 21 Rubio 13), so he has a lead of 5 points to overturn, which is a lot more achievable.

If Rubio is humilated in Florida, but Kasich wins Ohio, the Kasich camp will argue that Rubio can't beat Trump in his own backyard and should let the establishment get behind Kasich, especially as currently Kasich polls best against Clinton.

It's a longshot but we know Kasich will stay in the game for another couple of weeks, and if he can put a good show in some of the northern and mid-west states on Super Tuesday he could generate a little momentum for his mid-march showdown. A good show in tonight's debate would be a bonus, and it will be interesting to see if Rubio or Trump turn their attack on Kasich tonight.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:20 am

Bernie had his a** kicked in South Carolina on Saturday losing by almost 50 percentage with the African American making up 62% of the electorate (based on exit polls). This will hopefully be a low point. After that loss he's drifted out on Betfair to 46.0 having touched greater over he last 24 hours.

Tomorrow we have Super Tuesday where there are 12 States voting in a primary or caucas.

Clinton should do well in the Southern states - Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas - although in Oklahoma Sanders has a narrow lead in eve of voting Monmouth poll.

Sanders has a better chance in the more northern states Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, Vermont, although most recent polls in Massachusetts give Clinton a 10 point lead.

One interesting development in several Southern states are new ID rules which could make it more difficult to vote. This is thought to disproportionately effect Democratic voters and it will be interesting to see if this has any effect on the turnout, especially African-Americans

http://theweek.com/speedreads/609210/5- ... t-who-vote

martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 01, 2016 12:35 pm

The most interesting contest on the Republican side for betting purposes is the one in Texas on Super Tuesday.

Texas Cruz is the Senator and has "home" advantage, and is a warm favourite 1.12/1.13 on betfair.

Two recent polls give him a double digit lead, but three other give him a lead of 1,2 and 3 percentage points.

All polls give Cruz as winning but with Trump rising in the polls generally and the enthusiasm Trump appears to be generating amongst new voters, it's possible these polls are underestimating Trumps support.

The question you need to ask yourself is if the 7-1 available on Trump to win the Republican primary in Texas, a big enough reward for the risk!!

martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Fri Mar 04, 2016 1:49 pm

Kasich did better then expected on Super Tuesday with two 2nd placed finishes in Vermont (almost won) and Massachusetts where he just beat Rubio for second. He also picked up some delegates in Virginia.

He followed that with a good show in the debate in Detroit Michigan last night and his price has now dropped enough for me to be able to trade back my stake in both the Next President and Republican Nominee markets. In the Next President his price has dropped to 46/50 - I managed to lay back at 50 having backed him at between 100 and 140 . In the Republican Nominee his price has dropped to 20/21 - I managed to lay back at 19.5 having backed hat between 42 and 48.

Going forward Kasich's next target will be in Michigan, on March 8. He's currently last in the latest polls on 9%-12%, and has 4 days to turn that around. Last night performance will have helped, and he's conducting Town Hall events in Michigan over the next few days, which should be covered by the local news outlets. Now the field has narrowed to just 4, he's receiving more attention (most that he should drop out!!) and more financial support which will help with advertising. I think he's almost certain to rise in the polls over the weekend, and may even get enough support to challenge for second place.

A good show could well see his price tighten further.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:56 pm

A poor showing by Rubio on Super Saturday along with a rogue ARG Poll showing Kasich leading Trump in Michigan has allowed his price in the Republican Nomination market to drop to 11.5/12.5 and Next President market to 30/32. I decided to take a little green at 32.

------------------------------

Five polls over the last 5 days in Michigan for the Democratic contest shows Clinton with leads of 25, 28, 17, 11, 24 with under three days to go it might seem that Michigan is a lost cause.

But there are a few things which could paint a slightly better picture.

The first one is that Sanders really really needs to win or tie this contest. He has a war chest and has been spending on Ads to get his message home and will almost certainly be outspending Clinton here.

Clinton is getting nervous. Sanders is to have a Fox town hall on Monday, but when it was announced on Thursday Clinton's campaign said she couldn't make it due to scheduling difficulties. Now apparently she can make it, so their campaigns private polls must make them worried enough to make sure Sanders doesn't have a clear platform for Monday night. If she was well clear she wouldn't be worried enough to re-schedule.

I know it's a big ask, but I've laid Clinton at 1.08 for Michigan - fingers crossed ...

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 08, 2016 1:50 pm

Michigan is the most interesting State which is voting today.
I have two bets in the contest but I don't think they can't both win, since both my candidates, Sanders for the Democrats, and Kasich for the Republican will be looking for support from a pool of Independent voters.

They're both outsiders so neither is likely to prevail, but being an Open primary, any registered voter can vote in either of the Democrat or Republican event. Anecdotal evidence shows that many Independent voters are divided between Sanders and Kasich, since Kasich is seen as being the most "left wing (relative term when applied to Republicans)" of the available Republicans.

I really need as many of these Independent voters to move in the same direction, either Sanders or Kasich - not both.

Of the two I expect that Kasich has the best chance of delivering a surprise.

Sanders looks to have too much to do to catch Clinton in Michigan. One recent poll has him trailing by 5 points, but that had only 280 people in the survey, the rest with larger samples have Clinton winning by 11% to 24%, with the African American community siding with Clinton in as greater amount as their brethren "Down South".
If he loses by more than 10% it's probably game over, which of course means that if he does pull off an unlikely victory it will be seen as a potential game changer.

Kasich, on the other hand has chosen the best time to finally start a regional surge. His home State of Ohio has it's primary next Tuesday. After a really good debate on Thursday and with only 4 candidates remaining he's finally begun to get more airtime. With the other candidates focused on other contest today he's basically had a free reign in the State for the last week and it's having an effect. From 9%-13% a week ago he's surged to 20%-23% in the last 7 days. In fact in the latest Monmouth poll, interviews on last Thursday and Friday had Trump Cruz and him on 39/22/17 but on Saturday and Sunday the Trump/Cruz/Kasich spread was 32/25/26. Any further moves yesterday could make this a very close contest.

On that basis, the 10-1 available on BF for KASICH in the "Republican Michigan Primary Winner market" might be worth a few pennies.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:00 pm

martinkil wrote:Five polls over the last 5 days in Michigan for the Democratic contest shows Clinton with leads of 25, 28, 17, 11, 24 with under three days to go it might seem that Michigan is a lost cause.

But there are a few things which could paint a slightly better picture.

The first one is that Sanders really really needs to win or tie this contest. He has a war chest and has been spending on Ads to get his message home and will almost certainly be outspending Clinton here.

Clinton is getting nervous. Sanders is to have a Fox town hall on Monday, but when it was announced on Thursday Clinton's campaign said she couldn't make it due to scheduling difficulties. Now apparently she can make it, so their campaigns private polls must make them worried enough to make sure Sanders doesn't have a clear platform for Monday night. If she was well clear she wouldn't be worried enough to re-schedule.

I know it's a big ask, but I've laid Clinton at 1.08 for Michigan - fingers crossed ...


Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeee - I stayed up until 3:00am and couldn't really believe that he was holding on. Had a bit of a scare when a big lump of Detroit votes came in for Clinton changing the % from 53/47 to 50/49 in a single update (about 65% of vote in at that point)!!

Anyway I took my usual approach and had laid back enough to give me a nice profit on both outcomes (more for Sanders), and went to bed. Pleasent surprise when I woke up :)

Some reflections on the pre primary Polls and Exit polls:
The CBS/Yougov poll which covered (2-4 March), and gave a lead to Clinton of 55/44, and has the best breakdown of the sample.

The CBS/Yougov poll had the 18-29 age group make up 16% of the sample for Democrats

In Massachusetts the exit poll gave 18-29 age group as 19%.
In Michigan the exit poll gave 18-29 made up 21%

So the polls appear to be understating the young vote which Sanders is motivating

In the Michigan exit Poll 18-29 broke 81/18 % to Sanders (projected to break 65/33 in CBS/Yougov poll).

In Massachusetts the 18-29 broke 65/35 to Sanders which was more in line with the projected break from the Michigan CBS/Yougov poll.

The CBS/Yougov Michigan poll projected the black vote breaking 80/19, but the Michigan exit poll had it breaking 65/31. This is very important if it's repeated in similar states which are voting next week.

Independent made up 12% of the CBS/YouGov Poll but 28% of the exit poll. Again these voted in Sanders favour 71/28.

One interesting point from the exit polls is that in the Rep race the Independent made up 31% of the poll and tended to favour Kasich. On the democratic side they made up 28% and favoured Sanders.

If Kasich stays in the race this could hurt Sanders, since without Kasich more Independent could well decide to vote in the democratic primary.


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