2016 US Presidential Election

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Buzzit
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Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Buzzit » Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:03 pm

And also have to keep in mind the %chance that Hilary will be undone by her use of non secure email to discuss state secrets which is an impeachable offence in USA law.. not to discount possible breaches of position in financing the Clinton foundation through her time as Secretary of State... besides I find it very unlikely to follow a black president with a female president in my view.. and if Sanders does win first two primaries then you can almost guarantee Bloomberg will run as an independent as he will feel he can win against Trump etc.. unlike 08 & 12 where he did not run as he had no conceivable chance of success

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:41 pm

I thought about this a few days ago, but I couldn't put a price on his chance so left it alone

martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:42 pm

Iowa Caucus tonight.

The last two IOWA polls have come out, the "Gold Standard" Des Moines Register's Iowa poll which gave Clintom a 45/42 lead over Sanders - still within the margin of error of 4% and the Quinnipiac University Poll has sanders in the lead by 49/46. The general consensus is the deciding factor will be turnout. Sanders is polling extra well with "first time out" caucus goers, and if turnout is up it should work in his favour. My main worry though is that Clinton is polling best with women (not too surprising), who in the 2008 Caucus made up 57% to male 43%.

Looking at the overall picture I would make Clinton a 4/6 with Sanders at 6/4, the bigger the turnout the better Sanders chance. Sanders was available at 3-1 on Betfair earlier, and 11-4 with William Hill at the moment. I'm expecting a turnout of 150,000+ so at that price Sanders is worth a few pennies

martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:26 pm

That was an amazing roller coaster for my Sanders bet. With a turnout of more than 171,109 it was always going to be close, although early returns from mainly rural venues gave Clinton an early 53/46 lead. As more results started to arrive the gap began to close something like this
52/46 52/47 52/48 51/48 51/49 50/49 50.4/48.6 50.3/48.9 50.2/49.0 50.1/49.2 50.0/49.3 49.9/49.5 49.8/49.6, 50.1/49.3 49.9/49.5 49.8/49.6

by this time though 95% of votes were in and it was 5am so I called it a night.
A really exiting if eventually disappointing night but exceptionally entertaining - especially with Trump coming second in the GOP version.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:07 pm

With Sanders failing to win the Iowa caucus I've decided to trade back my full stake at 11.5/12.0.
Since my average price back price is about 20.0, if he starts to actually pick up support amongst minorities I'll still have a nice amount to trade back, but there must be a risk that having won New Hampshire (expected now so I wouldn't expect any movement) he'll fail to progress in Nevada and South Carolina.

There are a lot of young Hispanics in Nevada, and if he can attract them he could well move up in the polls, but my intention when I started this thread was to look out for some trades on Sanders, and I'm contend to now reduce my risk, and watch how things play out.

martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sat Feb 06, 2016 1:26 pm

There have been three National polls since Iowa and they are quite illuminating

The first one is the Rasmussen and automated poll. The last 4 surveys are given below:
Aug 2015 - Clinton 50%, Sanders 24%
Nov 2015 - Clinton 50%, Sanders 29%
Dec 2015 - Clinton 46%, Sanders 30%
FEB 2016 - Clinton 50%, Sanders 32%

Automated phone are by law restricted to Landlines which misses out the younger generation who are cell based. So it tends to focus on older voters. What the trend shows if fairly static support for Clinton, but a fairly steady growth in Sanders support. To supplement the automated calls Rasmussen also has an "online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. "

The second poll is from Quinnipiac who use live phone, so call both landline and cell

Oct 2015 - Clinton 53%, Sanders 35%
Nov 2015 - Clinton 60,% Sanders 30%
Dec 2015 - Clinton 61%, Sanders 30%
FEB 2016 - Clinton 44%, Sanders 42%

This change in support is stunning, and the initial reaction is to call it an outliner.

The third poll is the weekly Ipo/Reuters, who are internet based - If we take the first one each month we get:

Nov-15 - Clinton 57%, Sanders 28%
Dec-15 - Clinton 51%, Sanders 36%
Jan-16 - Clinton 58%, Sanders 30%
FEB`-16 - Clinton 48%, Sanders 45%

In this one Sanders can move about a bit, but his trajectory is upwards.

The next couple of polls will be interesting to see if this is indeed a sea-change or whether a couple of polls have had co-incidental outliners. Sanders is currently on 13 on betfair for £965. Having bailed out at an average of 11.81 (average win price 20.59) , I'm tempted to have a little more on at 13, since if a few more polls have them close and should he win New Hampshire, (with double digit lead I hope), and if he can go close in Nevada we could he drop 3-4 points quite easily.

martinkil
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:19 pm

Sanders drifted out to 14.0 so having bailed out at 12.0 I went in again, but not with quite as much as I had previously invested.

His lead last last week was up to 30 points, which I was worried might depress his turnout, but of the last 7 polls in the last two days, we have leads of 7, 10, 11 12, 16, 26 and 9, which hopefully will encourage his supports to come out and vote.

I'm banking on Sanders winning New Hampshire with a double digit lead, and getting improving polling numbers from both Nevada and South Carolina.

On the expectation of some improving poll numbers I've laid Clinton in the Nevada Primary market at an average of 1.12, hoping I'll be able to trade out on the back of some improving polls. Can't make up my mind whether to lay Clinton any more in the South Carolina Primary market - I've already laid her at an average of 1.09, but until Sanders South Carolina poll numbers improve I think this is about her correct price.

Interesting tactic - possibly by the Clinton campaign or related super PAC in Nevada - with a push-poll

http://www.nolandalla.com/i-just-got-pu ... -campaign/

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:37 pm

Good article. Thanks, Martin.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:21 pm

A new National Poll from - Morning Consort - now has Clinton/Sanders on 46/39 - only 7 between them. This outfit has been particularly active in the last 3 weeks with 6 polls
54/30 - 24 diff
48/31 - 17
50/34 - 16
51/35 - 16
50/37 - 13
46/39 - 7 (after New Hampshire)

A steady rise for Sanders who is also going after the black vote with this powerful video


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syln8IkOIqc

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:03 am

Something may be happening.
By no way conclusive, but there are pointer out there which may mean that Neveda and possibly South Carolina will be a lot closer than the Clinton camp feared possible.

From the Business International Times:
http://www.ibtimes.com/sanders-surging-nevada-clinton-campaign-lowers-expectations-democrats-vie-latino-2305599

1 -The Clinton’s campaign was getting nervous about her chances in Nevada this week when several campaign officials painted the race as likely to be close because Nevada has lots of white voters, like New Hampshire and Iowa
- Actually the percentage white vote is likely to be a little more then 60%. This could just be expectation management.

2 - The conservative Washington Free Beacon, however, released a poll Friday that indicated Clinton and Sanders are tied at 45 percent support among likely Nevada caucusgoers. Many are likely to be skeptical of this poll because of the publication’s known conservative bias, but Ralston, widely considered Nevada’s top political expert, argued Friday the poll could give a serious indication about Sanders’ increasing popularity in the Silver State.

3 - Anecdotal evidence of rising support for Sanders in South Carolina
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc-news/watch/sanders-campaign-canvassing-in-sc-621720643590

I've noticed that the price for clinton in the Nevada Caucus has gone out from 1.12 (my price layed) to 1.60. I took my stake back at 1.58.

On the South Carolina front I've laid Clinton at an average of 1.11 and she is 1.16 currently. If Nevada is close and we get a few polls showing a closing of the gap in South Carolina, then I should be able to trade out a fair bit higher.

If that happens, then by next Sunday the current price on betfair for Sanders to be president of 13.0 will look very big


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