2016 US Presidential Election

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Buzzit
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Buzzit » Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:44 pm

Hi Martin

Have heard a lot of chatter for Marco Rubio in the last week.. Do you give him any chance of picking up some primaries ? I think he is pretty low odds now though..

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:40 pm

We've missed out on the Marco Rubio band waggon so I won't be going in at a short price. I did manage to get Ted Cruz at 18 for the Republican Nominee (layed back at 7 - now he's 4), although I have an awful feeling that Trump might actually get most primary delegates. Simply because I can see him doing well in the early primaries and still having Cruz, Rubio and Bush splitting the remaining voters (possibly even Carson hanging about for a while).

Not sure if the GOP will try to parachute Matt Romney in as a unity candidate (he polls well even though he's not in the race) late on to try to stop Trump, or maybe Trump will mellow a bit once he seems certain to get most delegates.

Interesting times anyway

Buzzit
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Buzzit » Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:57 pm

Good work with Cruz - he was always a sensible option to take Trump voters at some point - so well worth a punt at 18 on expectation of increasing chances later in the race.. Might see if I can find some mid season primaries where Marco is unfancied as an option

Thanks

Buzzit
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Buzzit » Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:01 pm

Probably read - but may be of interest :
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... -and-cruz/

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:53 pm

I'd missed that one ... Interesting

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:04 pm

Sanders has dropped below 20 on Betfair for the first time in a while, he was 38 under a month ago. This follows some good polls for Sanders in New Hampshire - He's leading in 4 of the last 6, with 3 of them giving him a lead of 10, 13 and 14.

Another poll from Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire has both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders leading the Republican field in the state, although Sanders does an average of 9 points better than Clinton in the general election match ups.

The latest FOX National poll has Sanders up to 39 (Clinton 54) which is the second recent poll with Sanders on 39 and put Clinton 15 just points above Sanders.

There have also been recent polls in Michigan, Missouri and Arkansas which has Clinton leading by 7, 5 and 5 respectively which is indicative of Sander message getting to a larger audience.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:57 pm

Just two days on and Sanders is now trading at 14.0 on Betfair, remembering he was 29.0 just over a week ago.

Looking at the National polls and there has been one released today which must be an outliner with Clinton on 43% and Sanders on 39%, just 4% points behind her. It's quite a reputable company, IDB/TIPP, but they have an unusual protocol:

"Of the 967 interviews, 572 (59%) came from a cell phone sample and 395 (41%) from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample. We use regional quotas based on four census regions and nine census divisions."

So they have a higher percentage of cell phones which will tap more into Sanders young base.

"For landline, we use youngest male/oldest female procedure for respondent selection"

That said of the 397 respondents, the are split was: 18-24 ..... 54,
25-44 .... 136, 45-64 .... 127, 65+ ..... 77, - we appear to be missing 3 though!!

There were also only 113 Black/Hispanic of the 397, which for the democratic party is a little on the low side.

Anyway even if it's an outliner, it's helped give sense of momentum after the good numbers in Iowa.

The latest Iowa poll from ARG, gives Sander 47 and Clinton 44, the first poll to put Sanders in the lead in Iowa since early October, when Biden was still in the race.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:01 pm

Since Monday we've had some more movement in the Polls and some Interesting moves on the betting front.

On the National Poll front we've had two more Polls which give Clinton a sub 50 score (49/32 and 48/41), the latter from "CBS/New York Times", so the National polls are beginning to narrow with the Huffington Post Average difference between Clinton and Sanders dropping from 54.8/30.8 (26 diff) on 3-Jan-2016 to 51.6/37.5 (14.1 diff) on 14-Jan02916, just 11 days later.

In Iowa following on from the ARG poll which give Sander a 47/44 lead over Clinton, a Quinnipiac poll gave Sanders a 49/44 lead, and the well respected Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer Poll showed Clinton leading Sanders by 42/40 where as it's last poll in October gave Clinton a 48/39 lead.

In New Hampshire the last 4 polls show Sanders leading 50/46, 50/37, 53/39, and 47/44.

Much of this improvement has been put down to Sanders outspending Clinton in Advertising, in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and the movement in the polls has seen Clinton directing a lot more energy at denouncing Sanders gun position as well as his Health-care reforms.

In the betting market on betfair, over the last two days Sanders has traded down to 10.0 for £900 (1800+), and 8.0 for £590 (1180), and even down to 7.4 for £50. Currently at 9.6 and drifting out again.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:36 pm

With the end of January looming it's time to take stock and look at the state of play compared to how I envisaged events unfolding.

I first mentioned Sanders on 6 August, after he had fired up the progressive base bringing out a crowd of over 11,000 in Phoenix, Arizona, a typically conservative state. A few days after I posted his rally on the 10 August in L.A. had over 27,000 attending, and with his polling numbers rising I though his 20-1 looked too good a price, although since I was trading I was forced to take the 18-1 available of Betfair.

Sanders progress in the polls lasted until the end of September where he got down to 11-1 on Betfair, and had showed ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Four events turned things around for Clinton.

1 - She had a very good first debate
2 - Biden announced he wouldn't run (70% of his support went to Clinton)
3 - Clinton sailed through the Bengazi hearing.
4 - She started running ad in Iowa and new Hampshire in late August.

In the National polls Clinton rebounded into the high 50's leaving Sanders mainly between 25% and 30%. In New Hampshire they were sharing the lead in many polls and in Iowa, depending on the methodology he was anywhere from 10 to 40% behind.

By mid December Sanders had drifted out to 25-1 with the bookies and 38/40 on Betfair, but I still had faith and had a bit more on at 38.

Since the new year there has been revival in Sanders support. In October he started advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire. In December he outspent Clinton on the airways and it seems to have paid off with much better polling numbers. He also had a very good 4th debate performance where has was much sharper in his criticism of her connection to the big banks.

In New Hampshire the last 7 polls have all given Sanders a lead ranging from 3 points up to 27 points!!

In Iowa he's been leading in 3 of the last 8 polls, depending on the type of poll (Auto-call, Live interview, Internet), and the reality here it's all about the ground game and how many voters caucus on the night. If it's 120,00 as in 2004, then Clinton takes it, but if we get near 240,000 as in 2008 (Obama effect) then Sanders get it.

In the national polls most still show Clinton leading by 15 - 25, but two of the last 11 have showed the lead down to 9 points.

The markets have responded and have him mainly at 7-1 (10.0 on BF).

If Sanders is to have any chance of winning (or trading sub 6.0) he really must win both these early states. The main reason is that his platform is based on getting the young and independent out to vote in numbers. He need to do that to win Iowa and if has shows he can do it, then his electability claims begin to have credibility.

So I predict a win for Sanders in both early States, and we then get a momentum effect as more voters read up about him and that his number in the following two States of Nevada and South Carolina will improve soon after.

Buzzit
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Buzzit » Sun Jan 24, 2016 6:58 pm

Bit of talk on Michael Bloomberg running for President on an independent ticket with a billion dollar war chest dependent on where Hillary and Trump are at but needs to do before end March to get on all state ballots.. I think is worth a small punt at the moment


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