2016 US Presidential Election

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martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:41 am

For those who think they'll still be around in the Fall of 2016 it might be worth having a little on - Bernie Sanders - to be the next president of the US.

Currently 20-1 with Ladbrokes, Totesport and Betfred - (18-1 on BF) - this crowd-funded democrat is a bit like Corbyn in that he's come from nowhere like a breath of fresh air to within spitting distance of the favourite Hilary Clinton in polls in recent weeks.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/almost-every-major-poll-shows-bernie-sanders_b_7937906.html

From his wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders_presidential_campaign,_2016

we have:

Beginning in June 2015, Senator Sanders began drawing significantly larger crowds than any other presidential candidate, Democrat or Republican. On June 20, at an appearance in Denver, Sanders drew an estimated 5,000 supporters at a normal campaign stop, equaling Secretary Clinton's campaign launch speech in New York City the previous weekend.[39]

On July 1, 2015, a crowd of at least 10,000 showed to see Sen. Sanders in Madison, Wisconsin, nearly doubling the biggest crowd of his main primary challenger, Hillary Clinton.[40]

A Bernie Sanders campaign event in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on July 3, 2015, drew over 2,500 supporters. To date, this was the largest audience for any 2016 presidential candidate in Iowa, an important early primary state.[41] In Portland, Maine, a city of only 66,000, what had been scheduled as a town hall forum drew an estimated crowd of 8,000 to 9,000 people on July 6.[42]

On July 18, Sanders drew a crowd of over 11,000 in Phoenix, Arizona, a typically conservative state. This has been the largest crowd of any 2016 candidate, on either side.[43]


If his band wagon continues, there should be some nice trading opportunities over the next few months up until the Iowa caucus on February 1 2016 - when the fur might really start flying

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:01 pm

BERNIE_IS_ON_TRACK_TO_WINNING!.jpg
BERNIE_IS_ON_TRACK_TO_WINNING!.jpg (84.41 KiB) Viewed 7718 times

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:03 pm

Bernie Sanders is obviously the outsider, but the 14-1 and 17.5 available on betfair underestimates his chances.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pol ... ic-primary

Hillary 62% - Sanders 9% - April
Hillary 60% - Sanders 10% - May
Hillary 58% - Sanders 14% - June
Hillary 54% - Sanders 18% - July
Hillary 47% - Sanders 23% - Aug

The average point change per month has been around 3 - although the last two months have been 4% and 5%
A fanciful projection over the next five months could see the polls change as follows although it could actually change much faster if Bernie is percieved as having
momentum:

Hillary 44% - Sanders 26% - Sep
Hillary 41% - Sanders 29% - Oct
Hillary 38% - Sanders 32% - Nov
Hillary 35% - Sanders 36% - Dec
Hillary 32% - Sanders 39% - Jan16

- Here's hoping

The democratic primaries start in Feb 2016

Monday, February 1: Iowa caucus
Tuesday, February 9: New Hampshire (open primary)
Saturday, February 20: Nevada caucus
Saturday, February 27: South Carolina (open primary)

The latest Iowa polls show Sanders catching Clinton, although still 7% behind (30 to 37), but back in May (16 to 57).
In the New Hampshire primary Sanders is already ahead of Clinton.
In Nevada he's well behind, but has gone from 7% back in March to 18% in July.

The interesting one will be the South Carolina which is a predominantly black state.
Sanders has yet to connect properly with the Afro American or Latino minorities, but is starting to make overtures.

Someone else who thinks the same as me:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/polls-show-bernie-sanders-winning-the-democratic-nomination_b_8069452.html

And a bit of background

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yB-mfZl65rU&feature=youtu.be

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Wed Sep 02, 2015 1:13 pm

-http://observer.com/2015/09/bernie-sanders-secret-weapon/

The secret weapon of Bernie Sanders is people. The multitudes of people who believe it is time to take back America from special interests, the economics of greed, and the influence-peddling power of lobbyists in Washington and the money they employ to buy our government. The secret weapon of Bernie Sanders can be summed up in a line in the Tuesday Times story offered by a 30 year old Army veteran who was part of one of the huge crowds attending a Sanders rally: “I haven’t felt anything like this in the three years I have been out of the Army,” he said of Mr. Sanders’s unlikely and rising campaign for the Democratic nomination. “I feel a part of something.”

A 100,000+ march on Washington in Support of Bernie Sanders - facebook page - This would be really interesting if it came off

https://www.facebook.com/events/1636611586577118/

If this goes ahead it would force the media to pay attention to Bernie Sanders Presidential campaign, which can only be good for exposure. Social media is a real game changer, it was in the Obama campaign back in 2008 and the world have moved even more online since. Just like Corbyn, Sanders has tapped into the summers zeitgeist which in the States has manifested as the popular appeal of anti-establishment candidates- Sanders along with Trump - who is still seen as a joke candidate by the media but is polling serious figures

Looks like it could be an interesting Fall

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:20 pm

A new poll released today shows Sanders joining Hillary in Iowa at 41% to 40% (back in July it was 35% to 52%). The poll was conducted in the weeks around Labor Day, from Aug. 27-Sept. 8, surveying 832 likely Democratic caucus participants in the Hawkeye State via landlines and cellphones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

I think we need to take this POLL with a degree of caution since it's quite different from other recent polls, not so much in direction as amount - it may well be an outliner in degree - but the direction of travel is the same. In time hopefully we'll eventually have several polls which give Sanders the lead in Iowa.

In New Hampshire he's now 11 points ahead of Hillary (9 if Joe Biden is included) - http://www.scribd.com/doc/278707802/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2015.. This is the second poll to show a lead for Sanders and could well mean the state is lost to Clinton.

The more exposure Sanders gets the more his ratings surge. He's still well behind in the rest of the good USA. But there's still 5 months to go until the first Primary, and the first of 6 Democratic debates (only 6!!! itself another story) takes place in October.

We can expect Sanders to begin upping his game in South Carolina and he'll need to where he's 12/66 against Clinton and in a clinton/Biden/Sanders the numbers come out 54/24/9 - so it may well be too big a lead to claw back and just a good show may be the best he can expect.

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:56 pm

In a new YouGov/CBS polls out on Sunday.

In New Hampshire Sanders has opened up a whopping 22-point lead over Clinton, 52 percent to 30 percent.

In Iowa Sanders leads the secretary of state by a margin of 10 points, 43 percent to 33 percent.

In South Carolina where Sanders had only 9% in a poll earlier this week he has 22% in this poll.

Look like many Americans are beginning to FeelTheBern :)

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/13/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-cbs-battleground-poll/

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:48 pm

After the Weekend polls have been digested Bernie Sanders is down to 12-1 with the bookies (20-1 just over a month ago).
As long as his health holds out (he is 75!!) I think there's plenty of more juice as more Americans are exposed to his message it will 8-1 - 10-1 before the end of October (after the first Democratic debate) - or even lower.

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:17 pm

William Hill are the first to take note of the sentiment behind the recent polls putting Hillary out to 6-4 and Bernie down to 8-1. Sky and betfred/Totesport are tops at 11-1 for Bernie Sanders

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Sun Sep 20, 2015 9:52 am

Bernie's been noticed.

Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal featured an article claiming that Bernie Sanders wants to increase federal government spending by $18 trillion over the next 10 years - $15 trillion for the single payer health care (NHS). This of course didn't take into account that any new tax's will replace existing Medical insurance payments and for 95% of people will result in them actually paying less (major saving are in lower admin costs and lower pharmaceutical costs), because rather than insurance it will be funded by a progressive tax regime.

But this headline cost figure is being picked up by some Republican candidate to attack Sanders by name.

Which mean they now regard Sanders as a threat which may explain why 6 of the main bookies (bet365, Boylesports, Betvictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and William Hill) now offer Sanders at 8-1 or lower.

Still available on Betfair at 14.5 though.

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Sep 22, 2015 3:37 pm

A few more polls over the last week, one of which (CNN Poll) saw Hillary extending her lead against Sanders relative to its last poll, but the Huffington Post Poll of Poll show the pair still converging. Just three weeks ago I posted how the Huffington Post Poll of Poll have been converging over the summer, admittedly from quite a large initial gap, and I projected that the poll of polls would continue to converge as follows:

Hillary 44% - Sanders 26% - Sep
Hillary 41% - Sanders 29% - Oct
Hillary 38% - Sanders 32% - Nov
Hillary 35% - Sanders 36% - Dec
Hillary 32% - Sanders 39% - Jan16

Well at the moment the Huffington Post Poll of Poll show:
Hillary on 44.2 and Sanders on 26.7 (moderate smoothing) - so we're on track for the September target.

Utah is the latest state to have Bernie Sanders in the lead - just the one poll - with Bernie on 31 and Hillary on 30 - so a tie really


I've also decided to have a little on Elizabeth Warren as a saver in case anything happens to Bernie. She's said she won't run. but has similar views to Bernie but without the Socialist tag and if Bernie has built up a "head of steam" but for any reason has to retire, and Hillary is looking vulnerable, I thought it worth having a saver on her at 120+ - just in case.


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