2016 US Presidential Election

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martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby martinkil » Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:19 am

The final raft of primaries take place on Tuesday night and California is shaping to be the most interesting one of the night.
When I last posted the average lead Clinton had over Sanders was around 9% (RPG, Huff, 538), now those three organization give her a lead of 2%, 4.1, and 5.1 - an average of 3.72.

For Californian poll I suggest you subtract 3.9 or 12.2 and the correct poll value will most likely lie somewhere between those values.
As of 7-jun-2016:
The RCP poll average for California is 47.7/45.7 - +2 Clinton
The HuffPost poll average for California is 48.1/44.0 - +4.1 Clinton
The 538 poll average for California is 48.3/43.2 - +5.1 Clinton

Gives an average difference of 3.72 - Applying the 3.9 - 12.2 correction the true poll value is likely to lie somewhere between 0.18 and 12.38 for Sanders - with 4.9% for Sanders the most likeliest value (3.72 - 8.7)

I'll have some thought a little later on a selection of recent polls and a rather interesting experiment on exit polling the absentee/early voting in California


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