accumulative Lengths

What you would like to see added to Patternform
Earlybird
Posts: 331
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:01 pm

accumulative Lengths

Postby Earlybird » Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:49 am

Dear Magical Patternform Wish list Wizard

Hopefully i am going explain this well enough

as some people know part of my selection process involves a "horses for courses" criteria, whereby some horses perform much better on a favoured track type such as Galloping, Galloping up hill, Sharp etc. For the past several months after filtering patternform, on courses, i then began to look at each of those races, for each horse, more closely, using sporting life or racing post and working out, manually, how many accumulative lengths a horse won by or was beaten by, and although this would not give me the winner, it did give me an added insight into how the race would go, especially when used in conjunction to the ran to figs and pace figs, often we can see standard form figures for a, horse say, "Horse A" who goes well at Fontwell, (very Sharp Uphill) whose form line may read for example -2332 which printed looks great, but, when looking at each race where he was beaten by the winner 20l, 16l 10l 20l this is an average of 16.5 lenghths beaten by... then "Horse B" who also goes well at Fontwell his form line reads -5345 again on closer inspection of each race he was beaten by the winner he was off the leader by 4l, 2.5l 3l 3l his average is only 3.5l... therefore i can sort of deduce that Horse A form a Dobbing point of view is going to be useless and also from a straight betting opportunity Horse B looks much more progressive.

i don't know if this, from a technical point of view is achievable , it would be a nice addition to patternform, from my own point of view and the way i am doing it at the moment, its time sapping and a ball ache, and bigger runner races are a nightmare so i am tending to go with races with smaller fields, i do hope it makes sense
Cheers EB

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: accumulative Lengths

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:53 am

It's one of the enhancements I'm considering to Patterform, rather than finpos, or moneyform, I would have a "Pound Behind" value or code (rather than beaten distances) in the formline.

That said, if a runner was beaten 20l, 16l 10l 20l, but was still able to DOB, I would still prefer to select him for a DOB rather then a runner who was beaten - 4l, 2.5l 3l 3l - but didn't DOB.

Earlybird
Posts: 331
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:01 pm

Re: accumulative Lengths

Postby Earlybird » Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:56 am

yep i see your point on the dobbing front and perhaps my attempt at an illustration was a bit wishy washy, and true if horse A at 20l, 16l 10l 20l was a proven dobber, and bearing in mind that a lot can happen in-running then by all means, however i think the angle i am trying to come from, is that it is only another tool in the kit, as i say i have only been on this theory for a couple of months, and it would need a lot more tinkering with, yesterday i really fancied weybridge light in the 3.30 after that was after using the patternform filters then i set about looking at each horse at Fakenham, fontwell, Kelso and sedgefield, all similar track configuration, it resulted in the shortest lengths beaten Being Azabitmour with an average accumulative lengths beaten at 6.1l & Weybridge at 6.55l of course i opted for weybridge believing it strengthened my belief in him winning, however he was second Hurrah, however i managed to grab 16.0 and he only managed 8.4 Booo beaten by 7 lengths, i can accept to myself that i might be on a hiding to nothing, but like the proverbial a dog i'm not ready to let it go, today i fancy Always Bold in the 4pm at exeter i will go through my rigmarole in a minute or two and let you know the results if you want.

Earlybird
Posts: 331
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:01 pm

Re: accumulative Lengths

Postby Earlybird » Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:40 pm

so the 4pm at Exeter

i fancied Always Bold to go well

i did me accumulative lengths calcs ( it's only a short field)

and here is what i have

always Bold -8.5
silvergrove -17.58 (this includes his 4l win over buddy love C&d in Jan)
Buckthorn Tom -18.98 (excludes a course win at 19 furlongs)
Barton Heather xx
Red devils Lad xx

this was measured using Courses with similar profiles, Carl, Chelt, chep,exe, leics, newmk, Sand, tow, and filtered for similar distances Barton Heather. and red devils lad have never gone over a galloping uphill course

this is not an exercise in trying to make it fine, because when it comes to spending money i need to be objective, but if anybody cares to go through the patternfom race filters, you can see why i was lad to this lad before going through the lengths beaten


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