Current List

What you would like to see added to Patternform
martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Current List

Postby martinkil » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:18 am

I've been through this thread set and have come up with the following list of outstanding items (unordered)

- add previous draw to gold formcard (added to list 17-oct-2021)
- Overall "Expected"" pace figure for the race -( would need to define an algorithm)
- Identify straight distances at race courses.
- Option to remove a runner from the display in the racecard. (This would need a re-write)
- Add [RH] or [LH] to the course name on the cards
- 10 years stats report for big handicaps.
- Include filters on the pace pages
- Finish position filter
- Starting price filter.
- Filter for the OR of the top rated runner in previous races (NEW)
- Today's average OR and previous races average OR - AN indicator of the "real" class of today's runners (will need some thought - above filter might be ok)
- Include "course characteristics" for today's course
- Predefined filter settings (would require a re-write) - save as a named configuration for a specific user.
- Add a "pound beaten" as well as Finpos, and Moneyform. (Would need a new card)
- More ante post patternform cards
- Configurable racecards at a "user level" i.e. user xxxx may have racecards with no "Mult column" etc
- select if you want to be notified by email when the next day's patternform cards are available
- Be able to order the form by racecard number like you can with the other ratings and strike rates.
- extra column with the current prices
- A Patternform system analyser and administrator (email system selections to user).
- Navigation aid for other races on the same card (for phone users)

Done

- New columns in the "gold form panel" - SP, in running comment, % rivals beaten (PRB) - added 26-may-2021
- Irish Courses Surface/Config done

BODLINGBOY
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Current List

Postby BODLINGBOY » Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:16 pm

That's a big list Martin, for me the ability to remove runners would be very useful. But thanks for the service its fantastic.

Bow855
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:39 pm

Re: Current List

Postby Bow855 » Sat Jun 06, 2020 7:07 pm

Hello martin I've been thinking about this alot over the last year or so but I am not computer literate and dont know how to do spreadsheets I tried to do this by writing out the stats but was to time consuming.

Would it be possible to do a winners/place card ? As in every winner or placed horse take the stats from them horses that day and store them in a separate card. So you could pick a winners card then filter as in
Newcastle, would show all the winners from Newcastle with there stats before the race went off. Or say filters were kempton, 7f, class 4 would show every kempton winner and you could compare trends.

For speed tho if is said 46 you would have to apply a number say 1 to let user know that it was top of speed or 4 for forth in speed rating from that card before it won.

Just a thought would be good to checkout, would this be possible as all the stats would already be there just store them in a separate card

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Current List

Postby martinkil » Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:44 pm

Bow855 wrote:Hello martin I've been thinking about this alot over the last year or so but I am not computer literate and dont know how to do spreadsheets I tried to do this by writing out the stats but was to time consuming.

Would it be possible to do a winners/place card ? As in every winner or placed horse take the stats from them horses that day and store them in a separate card. So you could pick a winners card then filter as in
Newcastle, would show all the winners from Newcastle with there stats before the race went off. Or say filters were kempton, 7f, class 4 would show every kempton winner and you could compare trends.

For speed tho if is said 46 you would have to apply a number say 1 to let user know that it was top of speed or 4 for forth in speed rating from that card before it won.

Just a thought would be good to checkout, would this be possible as all the stats would already be there just store them in a separate card



Could you explain in a little more detail what you would like.

For instance in an earlier version of patternform there was a filter for "finpos" where you could select only old runs where the runner has previously finished 1,2,3 etc. - would that be helpful (or win/placed/unplaced).

Hmmm - re-reading several times, it appear you would like the option that only runners who have previously won at a specific previous track should be displayed (i.e. other runners "greyed out" (hence why you talk about another card)), then the filters should only be applied to those runners.

On further reflection, what you appear to be asking for is a "two layer" filter system.
The first layer of filtering produces a shortlist of runners - which the full set of filter can then be applied.

Am I getting anywhere near what you mean ?

Bow855
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:39 pm

Re: Current List

Postby Bow855 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:44 am

Yes a 2 layer filter system, I have read what you wrote many times also. Probably a bit hard to put into words so here it goes

Money form card. Patternform card. NEW card winners form.

In the card would be every winner and placed horse recently to say 30 horses, as if they were about to race each other same layout as patternform card, it would contain all the stats the original patternform card had prior to winning/placing

Now there would be 2 layer filter system, first filter would be your original filter system we call this filter 1.

Second filter system filter 2 would be
Course - kem, ncs, lin etc... ALL
Race type - hc, hch... etc
Distance - 5f, 6f, 7f etc ... ALL
Class - 7, 6, 5 etc...
Also - winners, place, win/place
Look back- 1day, 3days, 7days 1 mth, 2 years etc
And a few others.

So I would have a list of winners and placed horses only with 2 filters

I could go to filter 2 and select
Kem
7f
Class 5
1 month
Winners

This would give every horse winner at 7f in kempton class 5 in the last month. But the stats would be from the patternform card before the win, Make sense?

Once you have your horses then filter 1comes into play
Now you have a race card of winners then you can compare all the winners against each other, filter 1 could be used

Run order - last run
Speed - 46 (3) brackets means position on original patternform card.

So what you have is a list of kempton winners last run all compared beside each other

Hopefully this makes sense Martin bit of a long read thanks

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Current List

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:00 pm

If I understand you correctly, you are after a tool which will help you understand what factors influence winners at a given course/distance/class (kemp/7f/cl5) – a sort of system analyser for Patternform data ? - or am I again far from the point ?

Bow855
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:39 pm

Re: Current List

Postby Bow855 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:41 pm

Yes martin spot on, would this be practical? think it would be interesting to compare the winners to see which patternform factors to focus on the most

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Current List

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:29 pm

It's something I've considered, but in a proper "system builder" approach i.e. - rule 1 + rule + rule 3 over time period x - y and produce a report of all the selections with a profit and loss report.

What you appear to want is something slightly different.

Select condition - class 5/kemp/7f. Build a dataset of all runners who have raced under such conditions, then do some sort of regression analysis to see which factors give the best strike rates and returns.

Bow855
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:39 pm

Re: Current List

Postby Bow855 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:55 pm

Yes that's right same wavelength, so if you can find that 90% of winners had been placed in there last run then that would be a major factor in your selections. Could spot all the major points on a card and focus on them.

What do you think? Could it be done and would it be beneficial?

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Current List

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:43 am

It's already been done for jump racing but using Bayesian likelihood ratios rather than regression, by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth in a book called The Punter's Revenge - last century. Tony's HOOF ratings for jumpers are based in this analysis.

I tried my hand at doing the same for flat races back in the 1990's, taking various factors, and combining them in 1, 2's, 3's, 4's. The more factors you included the fewer selections matched i.e. LTO form figure of 11 - same grade as last race - trainer with annual strike > 15% - probably won't give many selections each year. I couldn't make it work for me back then but I haven't looked at it since betfair arrived though.
Rather than pre-selecting the end condition - i.e. "Kemp/7f/class 5" - I tended to produce the analysis, and then look where those conditions produced a profit.
You then though fall into whether there is a causal relationship between the "rules selected" and how those results distribute themselves via raceDistance, Racecourse, Month, Going etc etc, - what you want to see is profits every year, or at least not too many losing years.

I've already indicated that much of patternform will be becoming a subscription service later this year, so I will be looking at new services to provide to users, so a "system analyser" could well be one.
It's been added to the list.


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