my 2 cents

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martinkil
Posts: 944
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

my 2 cents

Postby martinkil » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:29 pm

Posted by Carla Graça in the Patternform facebook group

I'd like to add my 2 cents into this, although I haven't explored my ideas too much.Like it was already said, there is no magic and foolproof system, but I think there are a few things one can look into when analyzing a race.

First, when you bet in races where there are unexposed horses you risk of having some surprises so, for better chances of getting the winner, those would be better left alone.
Next and extremely important(although time consuming and sometimes difficult to assess) is why a horse didn't have a good performance in its last race(meaning recent form is extremely important). If there's a plausible excuse one shouldn't rule it out immediately. A horse could have a succession of 2 or 3 races running badly because he was coming from a long layoff or a series of unfortunate events happened that prevented him from having a good race.

Regarding the ratings themselves,I think that filtering for the last 12-18 months(until the beggining of previous year) and for that specific race code, and then looking at the ranTo would have good results IF you take into account what a spoke about previously and, of course, if conditions are suitable. So, to give an example, yesterday at 4:50Newcastle if you filter for 12months all-weather on ranTo, holiday magic comes first.Apparently(as I have read somewhere) he couldn't capitalize on the good race position he had, so he didn't have a particular excuse for not having had a good run that race.Moving on to the next, you have 3 horses with the same ranTo. Amazour which, by timeform standards had "excuses when 8¾ lengths eleventh of 13 to Ice Age in handicap at Newbury last time, not ideally placed"; Gallipoli was "off 6 weeks, 16/1, again below form when 5½ lengths seventh of 12 to Above The Rest at York last time" and Early was "below form last 2 starts". So, all things taken into account, amazour, who was also suited by the conditions, would be a good bet.

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