Martinkil
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 6692
Posted: Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:20 pm Post subject: Another Method
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In response to efc1878 question about how to use Patternform I'll go through the steps I use to make selections. There is no single approach I use but there are some common initial steps I nearly always make.
I'll pick out some races for Thursday 22nd and outline my approach.
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Martinkil
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 6692
Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2006 5:13 am Post subject:
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My first step is always look at the Going/Weather.
Looks like a frost overnight (Huntington inspection) but with cold rain/sleet
moving in from the east.
Haydock is soft/heavy places so it they get any rain in the morning it could get heavy all over. Huntington is GS, good places which depending on the rain/sleet could soften.
Any analysis will only be provisional with an eye on soft going runner at Haydock, and either GS or soft going at Huntington.
Step 1 (Going)
1:50 Haydock - A 5k class 3 Novices' Handicap Hurdle (0-120)
set "Months to look back" = "More Than 2 years"
Set "Going" to both "Hvy" and "Sft" (Keep the ctrl key down to select more than a single item) Click re-run
Result - 7 of the 10 runners have winning form on an easy surface so it's unlikely the going will be a major factor in this race.
Step 2 (Class)
reset
set "Months to look back" = "More Than 2 years"
Set "Prize" to 5K+ (i.e. all prize values of 5k and above) -
(select 5k, use the right bar to scroll down to the last prize money value, press shift key down and while it is still pressed down click the left mouse button - all prize money should be selected)
Set "NH/Flat" to "Hurdle"
click re-run
Result - None of the runners have ever won a race of this value, so this looks a substandard race of it's type. Looking at the RP site the top rated for this 0-120 hcap is rated 112 which makes this a class 4 race in reality.
Step 3 (Class)
reset
set "Months to look back" = "More Than 2 years"
Set "Race Distance" to 2m and 2m1f
Set "NH/Flat" to "Hurdle"
click re-run
Result - Four Hurdle winners at this distance but all in class 4 or lower. The one noticeable thing is that top rated on both Speed and Ranto is Mokum.
Step 4 (recent)
reset
re-run
- Now click on Speed column and the RanTo column to see which runner is top of both
Speed is Birdwatch , Fabulous Jet , Eborarry
RanTo is Eborarry , Fabulous Jet , Birdwatch
The same three come up
This would be the end of my initial Patternform analysis. I would now go over to the Racing Post site have a better look at my shortlist of Birdwatch , Fabulous Jet , Eborarry and Mokum.
It's an open race and to be quite honest I wouldn't have a bet. As a selection I would go for Birdwatch since he's in good form is suited by the distance and class.
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giorgio2
Joined: 05 Feb 2006
Posts: 34
Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 12:47 pm Post subject: another method
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hi martin, hope your well, i konw a fair amount of time as passed since you posted this method, but could you explain step 4, you say
step 4 ( recent )
reset
re-run
ive tried finding recent on the race page but cant find it, do you mean 1 month?
cheers george
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Martinkil
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 6692
Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 2:24 pm Post subject:
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Hi george,
When you press the reset button the "Look back" will get set to 6 months which is he default settings ... this is what I meant by recent ... sorry for the confusion
MartinK
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giorgio2
Joined: 05 Feb 2006
Posts: 34
Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 3:04 pm Post subject: another method
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got you martin. thanks for coming back to me so quickly, cheers george
Another Method
Re: Another Method
How would this process work on class 5 jumps races?Would it still make sense to check for class(prize money), since this is the lowest grade of jumping?Should the going always be the first thing to check in any going situations?
Re: Another Method
It can do since prize money (class) can highlight runners with form in better class. You'll need to make a judgement as to whether they'll be able to repeat that form in today's race.
For me the going is very important. For instance today at Ayr it's heavy, so I would like to see form on Sft/Hvy going before I bet
For me the going is very important. For instance today at Ayr it's heavy, so I would like to see form on Sft/Hvy going before I bet
Re: Another Method
Interesting Martin, I find in NH races that bracketing distances is quite tricky. Often you get horses with good form at 2 miles trying 2 and a half miles for the first time 2 and a half going up to 3 miles etc.etc. To be honest rather than just guess (I know you can go off breeding and trainer comments but nobody knows for sure that a horse will appreciate a distance change until it runs over that distance), I probably leave that race alone or bet on a runner proven over the distance that has the best speed and ran to ratings.
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