Facebook post - Marco Makaveli

Let us know how you use Patterform to help newcomers
martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Facebook post - Marco Makaveli

Postby martinkil » Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:58 pm

Patternform is an excellent tool, I use it in conjunction with my own ratings. One of the most consistent settings I tend to focus on is the following.
This is for the AW only, I dont follow or bet on National Hunt racing anymore.
Main settings:
Going - AW Only (slow to fast)
Last 8 Runs
Over past 24 Months
Distance - Only 1f shorter than todays racing distance, and no more than 2f longer than todays racing distance. Unless its a sprint race, in these I only use 5f-6f.
Then I sort by DOB Value.
Taking note of the top few horses with at least a 20% Dobbing strike rate.
Then I individually check classes starting from 2, going down to todays class. I check a class below but I like to see horses with a decent DOB strike rate in todays class at least.
I then put in all classes from 2 to one below todays. Again check the list and then I compare to my ratings, any NRs, maybe draw, days since ran etc etc.
Finally with all of these settings in place I click on Handicaps only, then check LH/RH depending on the direction of todays track, pretty simple since its only Kempton AW that is right handed. All others are right handed bar Newcastle's straight track.
The the very final check is using todays Track, why last? Each step is basically a process of elimination, by keeping it generic, it gives me a general over view, whilst working my way through the race.
Stamina and recent form are huge angles on the AW, using form 2f shorter than todays distance will see less winners, except those lightly raced (less than 10 runs) or 3yo. You do get the odd exception, mainly Mark Johnston runners stepping up in trip. But I always check pedigree stats for each race anyway.
The reason I use last 8 runs? Basically trading, backing, laying etc is all about recent form. Using stats about a horse for 5 years ago has very little impact unless a horse has either had a long break (75 days or more) or the back class data is track form.
Last 3 runs is key on the AW, using SFs from 12 runs ago on turf over a different distance will prove pointless most of the time. Some punters, experts, websites etc state that they produce SFs than can be a master figure, I would say this is complete nonsense. Track SF is easily the most reliable but LTO SFs are such an important part of racing if under similar conditions. Focus on last 3 runs as much as possible unless the horse has won/ran at the track in last 10 runs. Usually best if it was a win or ran off a higher mark than todays.
Anyway I will leave you with these thoughts on how I use this wonderful tool that is Patternform

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