Age bias

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martinkil
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Age bias

Postby martinkil » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:07 pm

A user has asked me if there is any age bias in the Patternform ratings and I though users might find the exchange useful

When running queries recently using the filters it appears that older horses get thrown to the top of the ratings quite regularly despite having no decent form over the chosen time span. Is there some kind of bias in the ratings that would put an 8 or 9 year old horse higher on principle?

I asked for an example

Sure, in the 7:40 at Hamilton today (25 June 2015) the ratings under my filters have Push Me and Little Sophella as the two top rated, also in the 9:10 at Hamilton Rasaman and Eland Ally are the two top rated (although Rasaman does have bits of decent form going back 18 months).

me: In the 7:40 at Hamilton - what are your filters

Just Flat races, distance, going and look back set to 18 months. I have a range of 7-10 furlongs and going from g-s to g-f...


me: There should be no age bias

The ratings are directly related to the period over which you select to look.
In this case using you filters (Flat, 7-10f, GS/Gd/GF, 18months) - Yojojo is top rated on RanTo and it finished 2nd off an official mark of 83 and was awarded a rating of 53.3 last August, and achieved ratings of 54 when 4th and 2nd last July and May. Hasn't been running well since and has dropped 5lb down to 78 and the lower official rating today (and hence weight carried) means those runs look "inflated". If he could return to form he would have a great chance. Interestingly he posted a run of 50 LTO which is similar to his rivals recent ratings, and means he could be returning to form.

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