WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

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martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby martinkil » Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:50 am

Another old post I found in an old backup:

Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2009 7:47 pm Post subject: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

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Hi folks,
Some may remember me from my post "Patternform a logical approach" a few years back and also my post for beginners aimed soley at high priced place betting.
I have been working on a purely patternform based all weather system since polytrack became the main surface on UK tracks. I do include a special method for sthl too but pray that it too will one day see the light and switch to Polytrack.
I have a special method for lingfield too and in fact it is now the most profitable course for betting and the quickest to asses so much so that I allow it a whole percent of bank per bet as it is so reliable.
I am getting overall on AW an roi of 12 percent and 18 percent at lingfield. It works on claimers stakes and handicaps and is moderately ok at sellers (adding sellers neither improves nor reduces the profit much). It is useable on maidens but there are far better methods for maidens which take account of breeding and that takes us off topic.

It uses a different process for handicaps from stakes etc. if there is interest in the method I will post more detail and reply to questions but here is a brief outline of the basics of the method to start with.

WINNING WITH PATTERFORM IN ALL WEATHER RACING

Basically AW racing (on polytrack) is tailor made for rating based betting unlike turf flat or jump racing which inherently require far more than just a raw knowledge of roughly how fast a horse is and need a great deal of course specific checking to avoid costly mistakes based on the bare rating info.
On AW racing there are two HUGE advantages. The speed pace and handicap ratings are all on relatively similar going and hence the innacurate going adjustements that infect all the raw rating figures are not a problem. Secondly the horses run often on the various tracks and the information thus covers many runs. This is an enourmous advantage for the pattern seeker since there are enough runs to
actually find useful patterns related to days rest, course preference, time of year etc.

There is one feature of the method I confess I am not clear about why it makes such a difference but perhaps others will know why. Basically if a race is a handicap rely totally on the ran to figure while if it is stakes use the speed figure.

In simple terms, for all tracks except Sthl and Lingfield.
Select for going STD, STD SLOW, STDFAST and also select GF.
(These selections are most useful for general use but particularly at the beginning of the flat season or for higher class races some horses come in to AW with no previous form on AW but very good form on gd or gs. until these horses have known form on AW they should not be overlooked at least as a threat typically though horses that go well on GF ground prosper on AW while softer ground specialists do not. The exception is that some heavy going horses do get on well in firbresand but generally heavy going horses will not prosper on poytrack.)

At 6 months look at the top horses in the speed column if the race is a stakes. If it is a claimer check both speed and Ran to but concentrate on speed rating. For handicaps use the ran to column. Next click on 1 month.
The top horses in the appropriate column are the likely winners for the race but dont jump on to betfair yet!!.
go back to 6 months.
For short sprints set the furlongs to the approriate number. usually best to start with say 5-6 for a 5 and 6-7 for a seven and so on but it is best to check that your selections preference first by looking at the list of races in the pop up. Some have clear preferences. It is always worth as a last chack clicking the distance of the race alone just to be sure your selections dont change.
I will elaborate on distance in a later post though. The problem is that you really need to check the form of races to find out if a horse you are interested in just hung on in a 7 furlong race and so is probably a dud at 8 or came second making ground in a 5 say in which case 6 might just suit it better. These things become second nature after a while and I actually had to edit this post to put it in! Dont forget to check distance!
Longer races can allow a wider margin but generally in AW you need to be aware that the distances tend to be pretty important.

Having checked the top horses look at the results list on the left and check for a reasonable number of runs for each horse and note whether the most recent runs were improving or declining in terms of finishing position. Then click on the reslults line and look at the popup to check which races scored which result (this can be confusing as the rating columns show the rating of the horse in order of best, next best, next best. while we want to know the order of rating in terms of most recent versus average performance. This is because we want only to bet on horses that are getting better or at par for their form not on some old screw that is breaking down.
Look down the list of the horses races in the pop up and look for all the best and worse performances. Try to see if there is a pattern did the horse perform much better after longer or shorter breaks or much worse after long or short break? Check for any possible course preference especially has it run at par or better on the current course?

establish in your mind a good idea of the horses par rating and go back to one month.
check that the horses most recent rating relative to the other horses more recent ratings are good do this for both horses at the top. Note if any of the horses within 12 points (pounds) of the top rated horse has won recently. There are two reasons for this check.
1 Betting on a horse that has won recently to win is inherently good practice for the punter:) Not critical for pace betting where, obviously, a place is enough. (if you are place betting by the way watch out for a form line that reads 19 6 1 5. or similar. Some horse just give up if they think they are going to lose and only ever win when they can win easily.)
More importantly though for the patternform user is the danger of the lower rated winning horse. The problem is that when a horse WINS a race we dont know if he COULD have gone much faster but just did not need to. This is one of THE ways rating betting can bite you in the bum if you are not careful!! If there are wins in horses lower down the column within as I say about 10 or 12 pounds of the top horse, especially RECENT wins then you have no choice. YOU HAVE TO CHECK THE RACE DESCRIPTION. Go to any racing press site like ATR or Soirting life or racing post and find the race. If the horse "Won easily" OR held off a closer with little effort EVEN IF THE RACE WAS CLOSE! then
LEAVE THE RACE ALONE!!!

You might miss a few winners this way but in the long run you will greatly improve your ROI. It is also true that horses ratings at 5th or lower in big races and third or lower sub 16 races that therating will probably be lower than it should be but whereas a horse with an undetected GOOD rating can really ruin your day a horse that is just a bit worse than how bad you thought it was is unlikely to cause an upset to your model of how the race will run:)
BTW, Just in case it is not obvious when you click back to one month you want to take note of horses that drop down the list due to bad recent performances but not those that simply drop off because they have not run. for those that have not run you check their performances in the form line at 6 or even 12 months and check how they do firt time out after a break. if they run to par or better then they are a threat. The SAFE play is to leave the race alone you will find plenty of races where your top horse is better than the dropout horse at any depth of month. However with reasonable care you can quickly tell whether the horse is actually the true top horse in the current race and it is also likely to go off at pretty decent odds so provided the margin is good and the horse often runs well after a break then you can go ahead with the data at the months back where the horse "appears" at the top (if less than 4) longer than 4 in AW is suspicious unless you can find out from other sources why the horse was off, such as in a pundits comentary on a race card etc.

NEXT you need to check the stall advantage for the course and whether your horse is in a bad or good stall. DONT rely on "conventional wisdom" on stall postition take the time to go to ATR and check the actual recent stall related info.
If the horses you are interested in are in reasonably good stalls then go on to the next stage.

Here you check the top horses at least the top three and see how close they are in pounds difference over six months and over one month. If they are within a pound or two then dutch the top two. If they are within a pound or two and well ahead (8 pounds or more) of the next best horse and the odds are reasonable then it is worth doing a reverse forecast. If the top three are close in the ratings and at least one has decent plus 10 odds then a swinger on all three is a good investment. You can get a small ROI if you just bet the top horse but its considerably better if you go for both in a dutch or even flat bet because although each bet is more costly you almost always get much better odds on one of the horses than value and less value on the other as one of the horses bet will often be favourite. I would hope it goes without saying that if one of the horses odds on then flat betting both is pointless but dutching is still profitable because when a horse is odds on in any race its brethren are ALL over value! Morevoer the odds on favourite will get knocked over at least 30 percent of the time and the next horses odds will on average tend to be much better than just 3-1 Some races are just plain daft with 10 to 1 or better bar the favourite. What is even more useful is that the second favourite is often not your second selection (just as it is the case that your top selection will often not be the favourite), The reason is that what makes a favourite is driven by a whole range of factors that are not all related to the horses real chance of winning. Over and over again you will see a horse favourite at Lingfield because it just did well at kempton or sthl or wherever. The punters look on in dismay as their spectacular front running star at Sthl runs out of puff yards from the post at Lingfield and go home muttering about bad jockeys and other dark conspiracy theories unaware that they just bet the housekeeping on a horse that was totally unsuited to the course. WE on the other hand count the cash from our vastly over valued 20 to 1 winner:) Also another thing the patternform user will see that the average punter does not is that "crumbing betty's" spectacular win last week over "Fasterthanlight" means that crumbling betty is a great bet in this race over "whatasurprise" who lost to "fasterthanlight" the month before. The Patternform user however notes that Last weeks race was run way off pace in the 40s while fasterhanlight V whatasuprise was run in the 80s! We also know that crumbing betty has never gone faster than 55 or so whereas "whatasurprise" can go at 90. Now it is possible that the race you are betting on will run at a rotten pace too but a quick check of the pace of the horses on the pace page will give a guide to that. It is however far more likely that the undeserved favourite "crumblingbetty" will barely get out of 8th while whatasurprise cruises home at 10 to 1

Finally if your serious about your ROI (you bet for a living or to build a nest egg rather than purely for entertainment where anything better than a dead loss on ROI is enough) then you must take the final step before betting. Listen to the race commentary before the start and make sure that your hores are not the first into the stalls or make a fuss as the last into the stalls. Horses that are first in might get stressed if it takes a while to load the rest and horses that make a fuss rarely win.
IDEALY of course you would watch the whole meeting on racing UK and check your horses health in the paddock. That would increase your ROI by as much as 30 percent with practice but we are drifting then from a simple system to genuine professional betting but if you can find out if your horse is fit and well it is actually the first and most important factor in profitable betting beyond nearly everything else so it makes a huge difference to profitability because you can often discount one horse and save its bet or see your top selection looking exceptionally well and increase your stake.

Nhugz made an excelent point below about his attention to market movement. While I probably do not have the skill in market awareness that he has the market can be an important clue to some of the issues mentioned above. For example it is worth watching the market movement about 10 to 15 mins before race time. especially if you dont have access to TV or actual sight of the paddock. It is at this time that a favourite (or any horse) might start to drift if punters feel the horse is not looking right. Also you get some market movement inwards when a horse clearly takes punters fancy.
Later market movement really close to post is different. Here is where you might get some movement from connections or those in the know piling on to top up their investment at the last moment. The snag for me at least is the sheep problem. as the market even begins to look like it might be moving lots of those trading on the market pile on effectively amplifying a lot of noise. SOMETIMES these sudden shifts prove right but quite often it turns out to be folk chasing ghosts. The best way to tell the difference is if you know a reason why the horse might get late support or at least know that the horse is known for a variable performance *which you would know from the patternform form pop up. Perhaps Nhugz will post some of his thoughts on market movement but this is my basic take on the issue. Clearly of course VERY late drift like after official post time but before the race starts indicates some problem like a horse bolting or not stalling without a fuss. My best advice is to watch the market off and on from immediately after the previous race up to about 10 mins before post. Any health issues are likely to show in the market by then. After that time all sorts of other things can confuse the issue. Not an experts method but one that will prevent you betting on a nag with three legs.
The following special notes are for lingfield and Southall. It should be self evident that horse form at these courses must be taken with a pinch of salt at other courses. Sthl or Ling form is unlikely to come good at Kempton for example. watch that your selection is not based on innapropriate form. In general it is always worth checking from at the current course whatever it is and absence of experience at the current course is inherently not a good thing. There is an old punters maxim. "Never back a horse to do something it has never done before" Ling and Sthl are the most extreme in AW in my opinion but all courses have their quirks and never underestimate a horse that appears to have particular success at the current course especially if it is NOT your intended selection. One further point. The stiff finish at ling means that a five furlong race needs the sort of staying that a 6 furlong needs elsewhere so if a horse is doing well at 5 at ling it might be a danger to a 6 furlong specialist at Kempton for example.
Special note for Lingfield
As you follow the above system you should develop a familiarity with the different character of the different courses and if there is interest I will post a follow up on refinements to this basic system that take greater account of course variation and "horse for courses" in the case of Lingfield it is too important to ingnore. Basically lingfield has several quirks. Tight bends that are especially destructive to certain stall postions particularly for 7 furlong races for example. That problem is covered in the above method using the ATR site for stall effect info. (again it used to be possible to just say "stall 2 sucks for 7 furlongs at ling" but these days due to better attempts by course clerks to minimise stall effects at least from being glaringly obvious in statistics, you need to look at the refined data at ATR it is free after all!
More importantly though is the fact that lingfield is an exceptionally stiff course at the finish.
Lingfield is SO unique that the simplest solution is simply to click "Lin" in the course selector on patternform and ignore horses performances elsewhere. That will work but like any simple answer it is not quite safe. So go through the same process as for any other course and establsh your selection then repeat with "Lin" selected. if the results are the same then carry on. Often they will be because in fact trainers know the course character and you will find that unlike at other courses where selecting that course alone would decimate the amount of data in patterform columns often at lingfield it barely affects it because so many horses go there so often. The ones that go there rarely are the ones to watch out for. click on the pace page and chack your horses for pace. at lingfield anything less than -5 is starting to look bad. VERY few horses can front run at ling and win. BUT SOME CAN! If your horse is top and ling is selected and it front runs then it probably has to be 10 better than any other horse it will probably have rotten odds too.

Special note for Southall
Southall is as far as I know the only course left in the UK still using the appalling cruel to horses muck known as "fibresand". This COMPETELY changes the way a race must be run. Fibresand offers little grip and so a horse that depends for its success on a booming accelerating finish will find it much harder to win. Horses that in general need "holding at the back" are virtually doomed on fibresand first time out because the kickback from the lead horses is such a fright and gets in their eyes. Later they can get used to it a bit but running from the back is in general not a successful tactic on fibresand. You need your horses to be in the - 4 to -9 preferably -9 on the pace page.
Agian you can just short cut and just click sth in the course window and if there is enough data on all the horses follow the same process as above but you are going to lose to much data on most races unlike the case at lingfield. So it is better to just go through the normal process described above and then check your horses pace. Horses with -7 -9 can be taken at par. - 2 to-5 subtract 2 pounds. -2 to 3 subtract 4 pounds 4 to 6 subtract 8 pounds. 7 to 9 subtract 10 pounds. IF your horse is still ahead then it is worth a bet but only at odds against. Unfortunately horses good enough to pass the above test rarely go off at odds against.

FINAL CHECK
It is sound thinking as a serious punter, to always be looking for reasons NOT to back a horse in a given race. Reasons not to back a horse come in to two cattegories.
1 The horse is flattered by its figures and is not as good as you think it is. OR some external factor such as health or trouble before the start have reduced its chances.
2 There is a horse or horses well below your selection in the ratings that is actually much better than it seems at first glance.

It is harder to sort out the second point because it means checking lots of horses. A good idea is to glance at the ratings over 2 years and make sure that some star is not working his way back to health potentially at your expense. In AW there will always be lots of horses that used to be much better but for most of them their decline can be easily read in the form line after clicking for the pop up. But watch for the horse that has perhaps been running at the wrong distance for a while or the wrong courses. Naturally of course one always needs to be wary of first time blinkers etc. Also watch out for seasonal variation. some horses and more importantly some trainers have particular periods where they are much better. Just as some horses like short breaks between races and some long, some also just tend to get fed up after a while and need a break. Some horses need a few races to really get back into the swing of things. These things become glaringly obvious after a while as you look at form lines and the patternform pop up is an indespensible tool for seeking such patterns.

After any race it is always worth examining the result as so often one slaps ones brow and thinks "How did I miss that!!" as you do this on each race more and more you get a feel for the sorts of things to watch out for. You can never get rid of them all and sometimes for no apparent reason your horse was just not in the mood or another horse suddenly reveals new talent. When that does happen though it is well worth taking a look to see if there is a reason that you can find for a sudden improvement there probably IS a reason.

Bank management

Finally you need the total investment in any race to equal or be less than 2 percent and preferably 1 percent of your bank. If you are betting on betfair this means you need a starting bank of 400 pounds at an absolute minimum unless you have a betting bot that can place penny bets on betfair. However there are lots of bookie sites that let you place 10 p bets so you can start on a much lower budget. Eventually of course you will go back to the bookies because once your betting bank is large enough it is hard to get economical matches on betfair and they charge a fortune in commision that completely negates the better odds on the exchange anyway. Avoiding blacklisting on the bookies is your next problem but by then you will have your retirement fund:)

Hope this is of interest,

Aubrey

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Last edited by Aubrey on Sat Mar 21, 2009 5:20 pm; edited 7 times in total

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 8:29 am Post subject:

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Whilst i don't agree with all your points Aubrey because we each have our own styles, this is an excellent post and would go a long way to straightening out many punters. Luckily for the books and layers amongst us, most punters are far too lazy or simply too busy to make such effort......

Great Post

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 9:39 am Post subject:

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Hi Nguhz,
Thanks,
I will update it with a bit on distances too, but the basic principles are there.
You are right of course thank heaven for the lazy punter not just for the layers amongst us but for backers looking for good odds!!

I would be delighted to hear where you dissagree as I admire your work too and methods can always be improved.

Aubrey

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 12:27 pm Post subject:

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Figures are a sound basis from which to work Aubrey, which is what makes this such a good post. You are also correct with regards pace, which is not only track specific but also race specific and particularly important on the AW. I am aslo a fan of statistics, especially sire stats and market knowledge is as important as value.

I like to get my hands dirty and find low grade racing both profitable and fascinating. Past form can be as important as recent form and trainer patterns can make any form irrelevent!! Sometimes the best bets/trades/positions come from not even thinking outside the box but creating the box...

I am a fan of fibresand and don't think it's cruel to race on the surface, it's the least understood of the AW racing surfaces despite having been used for many years. It doesn't lack grip as such but is a less flexible and much deeper surface, which requires deep harrowing in cold weather and in turn rides very testing. One paced gallopers go well on fibresand and it's often said mudlovers enjoy the surface too, although i think it has more to do with their one paced nature. The kickback is fierce and you need a jockey who can ride the surface well. Fibresand racing has been in the past very profitable but is now in decline as it becomes less popular. Polytrack is not the be all and end all it's made out to be though. What many people don't know is just how many artificial surfaces exist, even with my limited knowledge i could name at least a dozen. What i don't want to see is racing using just a single AW surface...

I look forward to your further posts on distance, individual tracks etc...

Do you get involved with turf racing at all Aubrey?

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 2:43 pm Post subject:

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Hi Nhugz,

Yes you are absolutely right past form can be as important as recent form and trainer form is critical. As I say in the post a "System" as such struggles to be profitable because of ignorance of these points. of particular importance is what trainers do after a break as mentioned above. Some send their horses out "for a run" or "pipe opener" as the pundits say while other train with specific aims and when they think the horse is ready to win they send them out. You can find out which is which with a glance at any good trainer stats as you obviously know:) Also there are trainers with their own AW surfaces and they are bound to have an edge in AW.

As to fibresand. I call it cruel because horses with the wrong head carraige can get very bad inflamation in the eyes after a run.
From the betting point of view I mourn the passing of fibresand in that it was wonderful for catching out turf favourites.
You are right about how the surface affects different horses. In the end a horse race is about the efficient expenditure of energy. In turf for example an efficient horse on good good to firm ground has a long flowing stride whereas a high stepping horse is waisting energy with each stride. conversely on heavy going the long low striding horse is practically stuck in the mud but the high strider barely notices the difference and romps on to win. I used to own a chaser called "Dusty Isles" and it was a slug in anything less than a swamp but in heavy ground you could pay his training fees for a year on the 100 to one odds:)

Yes of course I get involved in turf racing and jumps! My previous posts on patternform use covered flat turf mainly. I use patterform for jump racing too but i find that to be safe you need a lot of other data too especially trainer data. Jump trainers are so different in their philosphies that without a knowledge of their work you can be betting blind.

I think it is important to set out on picking a winner with a clear logical approach and to constantly be looking for reasons NOT to back with that mindset you tend to avoid making too many mistakes.
I like to try to design methods for patternform that help newcommers to the page get a feel for what a magnificent resource it is and so try to simplify what I do in my betting methods into a proecess that can be followed by someone new to racing.

Thanks for your input. I am always fascinated by your posts on laying and trading too.

Aubrey

PS Oh yes I forgot to mention you are of course right about breeding. one of the reasons I exclude maidens from the above post!

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind"

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Sat Mar 14, 2009 7:57 pm Post subject:

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Keep up the good work Aubrey, i like your style...........don't be a stranger.

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DubaiRacing



Joined: 17 Feb 2009
Posts: 6

Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:20 am Post subject:

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Excellent post Aubrey, not too disimilar from the format I use for place backing horses.

I must agree with your comments on Martin providing a top class service for free. I'm deeply in debt to him and wish him many more years of providing this great site!

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 10:59 am Post subject:

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Hi Dubairacing,
I am a fan of place backing methods too. Recently I have been experimenting with tote place on certainraces and swinger too cometimes. I find that often with the longer odds selections the return is substantially better than the best price on betdaq or betfair, have you had a similar experience?

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind"

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Tadz



Joined: 30 Nov 2008
Posts: 3

Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 2:35 pm Post subject:

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Thank you Aubrey for sharing your system, after clearly spending so much time and effort in researching.

I've purchased books in the past that don't go into such depth and detail !!

As a newbie/novice it will take me time to digest and understand, but just wanted to say thanks.

Tadz.

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 6:20 pm Post subject:

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Tadz,
Thanks for your kind words! It makes it all worthwile

Keep checking back at the post as I will be updating it with some more detail on things like market movement (today) to compensate if you cant see the paddock.

There is always a compromise in a post like that between putting in so much detail that the new user gets daunted and not putting in enough to protect the newbie from what to an old pro would be an obvious mistake.
I hope you find it strikes the right balance and makes you a bit of profit

If you have the time try reading my "winning with patternform, a logical approach" post it gives a general outline of the kind of things that are worth being aware of in general when punting on the gee gees. Especially what information matters most.

There will be the long promised jump racing method posted too fairly soon. Hopefully before the grand national which actually needs a method all to itself:)


Aubrey

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind"

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Martinkil
Site Admin


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
Posts: 6692

Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2009 7:03 pm Post subject:

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Aubrey - great writeup.
But you don't mention class or prize money - do you use this at all?

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:29 am Post subject:

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Martin i find prize money won a more influential factor when laying horses, rather than when backing them. As for class, i am an avid user of the Official Ratings which sorts horses out far better than our classification and handicap systems, which are ambiguous to say the least. The OR's are arguably perhaps the most useful ratings out there.

Aubrey you've started a great thread here...

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Martinkil
Site Admin


Joined: 30 Oct 2005
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Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:39 am Post subject:

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The OR are great but it's the movement through grade bands which i find interesting. A runner rated 65 who wins a 0-65 by two lengths and is then re-assessed to 71 is now forced to race in 0-75 or higher bringing his up against better rated runners. Unless he's improving he may have to wait until he drops back to a rating of sub 65 to allow him to return to a race level (0-65 or lower) in which he has a chance.

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:58 am Post subject:

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The same runner could equally be the highest rated runner in a 0-75 with an OR of 71...

The point highlighted though is often the most ignored by punters yet some of the best information available for exposed horses.

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 12:02 pm Post subject:

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Hi Martin,
Yes I do use class and prize money but in AW racing so much is at the bottom end of the class ladder where most horses are going up and down like truanting schoolkids:). In turf and jumps class and prize money can be an essential way of avoiding false data (see "patternform, a logical approach")

Class is one of the things that I nearly always use to warn of the disguised threat and I will add that to the warnings section. I click on class at about 1 or 2 years and watch out for the hidden star who has perhaps been out of racing for a while returning to steal my money!

Prize money used to be an essential feature but there have been some funny races recently especially in jumps where all the middle weights withdraw leaving very unbalanced races with 2 3 or 4 runners. However perhaps judicious use of the number of runner window and the prize money window might help to clarify the position. again though I feel in AW most of the racing is done at the lower quality end of the market where there is really too much mobility in class to make it a reliable tool for the beginner. What do you think? Am I being too complacent on the issue?

Aubre

nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:32 pm Post subject:

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Aubrey, for what it's worth i agree not only for AW racing but the majority of flat racing. OR's are key for me, i judge the class of a race from the OR's not the class bands because the strength in depth of races of the same class band can vary from race to race. I also adjust the OR's where necessary, as i would any other set of ratings...

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:02 pm Post subject:

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Nhugz
I think one of the key things you say about OR is that they provide one of the best sources of informtion on exposed horses. They are not very reliable early in a horses career and tend I think to be a litte eratic especially in seasonal change times as the going corrections are unreliable for horses at least earlier in their careers.

Class in itself can be a useful thing to check along with breeding back in the history of a horse though. If a horse starts off its career in a high class race you know at least that its connections believed the horse was classy
Some horses develop later than expected and of course some were just born too late in the year to do well at their nominal age class and these can sometimes really blossom later. They can fly under the OR radar till late three or four while their early class aspirations still may provide a warning of potential.

It is probably useful to consider any race from the owner/ trainers point of view. Why was the horse entered in this particular race?
They have to choose races on the basis of class as they don't of course know when they enter which horses they will be up against so they guess based on class and prize money especially in the lower grades. At the higher grades they have a lot more info from the grapevine about who is entering where. Down in the dirt we have to start from the assumption that a horses connections are hoping to win with the horse and presumably in the race they have entered but they will be trying to stay one jump ahead of the handicapper too. Hence it is useful to look at a horses career as a campaign, Was it entered in this previous race that it was clearly unsuited for to get a lower mark for the next higher priced race? I am always suspicious about horses that are clearly wrong for a race. It is unlikely that the trainer is unaware of that. It may be that the owner owns a box at Lingfield and likes to watch his horse run even though it is incapable of the mountaneering required at lingfield but it is also possible that the trainer and owner have their sights set on a bigger prize down the road and want to chip away at the horses OR and get the handicap down. In a sense officially all courses are the same just as officially there is no draw bias. Handicappers are not robots though and so presumably take account of such things to some extent. It has always amused me that handicapping is the one job where you could ruin your career by doing it perfectly:) Racing would not last long if all handicap races ended in seven horse dead heats

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind"

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 4:19 am Post subject:

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Absolutely Aubrey, as said in my earlier post trainer patterns can make ratings irrelevent!!

I adjust the OR's as i would any ratings, for improvers and horses on the downgrade as well as keeping an eye for possible job horses. This is why i try to stick to certain areas at peak times because there just aren't enough hours in the day!! It's also the reason i now take laying alot more seriously...

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2009 7:51 pm Post subject:

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Nhugz
Yes I only recently got into laying and still really dont like it much, not because it is not profitable but because I still find the mind set harder to adjust to. I do find it good to first evaluate a race as if I am laying as it is a good way to look at all the apparently likely losers and discover their hidden threats:) Again this is where trainer data rings clarion alarms often and you think whats THAT horse doing there??? oh dear!!

It is probably easier to make money laying than backing if you can afford the larger starting bank required but it does not have the satisfaction of being RIGHT!!!!! when your winner romps home. I would guess though that as you have demonstrated good backers make the best layers?
BTW
thanks for the plug of my previous posts for Drew!

Aubrey

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind"

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philipg



Joined: 21 Aug 2006
Posts: 1954

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2009 9:40 am Post subject:

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Hello chaps i love a thread like this, Well done Aubrey..Old Nat and Martin are Top boys to listen too for sure. I have read your thread and again, I certainly do not agree with everything you say, but this is the wonderful world of horse racing? This is why we have the old odds..All winter i have been concentrating on a,w racing, I have had ups and downs as usual.
I now never bet on the aw until i have filtered like this on southwell lingfield wolver and kempton.. 18months with these tracks .. catt,chest,
eps,folks,kemp,ling,muss,pont,rip,south,thir,warw,winds,wolver. these are all tight tracks..It is very important that a horse has proven ability around a turn.. I add other factors especially at ling ...undulating tracks..
also downhill...but give this a try..for starters.

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:50 pm Post subject:

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Hi philipg!

I could not agree more that track fitering is really worth using. AW throws this into sharp relief in a sense as the tracks all have their quirks. I have been playing around with a little utility I wrote where you enter the current race track and it throws up three lists. a near identical list of a few tracks, a more broad list of similar tracks and a third list of "near enough" tracks depending on characteristics. This was particularly for jump tracks though and I am researching the stats on flat tracks now.
In the case of AW as I say in my post above Lingfield and Sthl are two that are particulalrly unique in character but more and more I think Kempton too is more quirky than one might expect. It is certainly true that given two runners of fairly equal ability overall the one that has done better at Kempton in the past is far more likely to win there.

The critical issue for a given horse and a given track may vary though. tightness is one thing as is the stiffness of the finish, the distance from the last bend to the finish and the distance from the start to the first bend etc all shape the race and the kind of horse that will do well. Understanding when a horse is less suited to a track than another and estimating how much allowance you can then give it is very much where an edge can be scraped on the odds as inherently it is too much trouble for most punters to bother checking hence lots of money sometimes goes on horses that are not likely to win as a lesser fancied horse has a superiour ability on that particular type of track. Of course if the given horse has won recently at the particular track then "everyone knows" it is a good bet there, the trick is winkling out those horses that are suited but have not got a great big sign pointing that out as well as noting when such a recent win occured in a race that was not actually run the way the current race is likely to be due to different predominant pace.

In the same area of course lies the issue of stall position. Gone are the days when this could be taken as read for a given track. Not only are clerks doing eveything they can think of to mix up the stall advantages with various harrowing techniques but jockeys are now taking more account of the different strategies required from different stalls on a given track and so it is no longer in most cases the open and shut issue that it was. There was a time when you could actually make a profit backing certin stalls on certain courses blind. That is still possibly true in a couple of cases but in general you need a bit more care nowadays.

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind"

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nhughz



Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Posts: 3783
Location: UK
Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2009 3:53 am Post subject:

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Less of the 'Old' please philip...

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Drew Peacock



Joined: 17 Mar 2009
Posts: 3

Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:46 pm Post subject:

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Hi guys

A very informative read which leads me on to one of my bugbears. Does anyone find speed ratings in general less useful than they used to be? As far as the AW is concerned my speed ratings are now all over the place and have been for some time. I've long thought the main culprits are the much-maligned Clerks of the Courses and how deep they feel like harrowing the track on any day. The going is nearly always given as standard but sometimes it is far more standard than others!

Digressing slightly but I find the same thing with flat turf ratings as well. Clerks seem to move running rails at will these days and when that Needham woman was at Warwick she must have moved the 7f start by about half a furlong based on the times I wsas getting for that distance! Add that to the fact that many Clerks seem incapable of accurately recording the actual going and it makes speed rating very difficult. As a final anecdote to that last point I was at Yarmouth one day when the Clerk gave the going as good to soft. One course record was broken that day and four other races were run in faster than standard time. Good to soft? I think not! It all makes it very difficult.

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Aubrey



Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 74
Location: Edinburgh
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:15 am Post subject:

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Hi Drew,

I dont think speed ratings are any worse than they ever were, the snag you always have to cope with is that races are not run at a "standard" pace. Your points about going are very pertinent though and it is one of the reasons I really love patternform. one can compare for a given going only rather than believe what is in reality an extremely arbitrary and unrealistic "going allowance" in OR or any rating. In patternform one can quickly check whether a horse is capable of its best or near best on the days going or whether it is seriously hampered. It is also true that "standard" is a term stretched beyond reality and std fast or slw dont really help much standard sticky standard slippy standard gooey might be more useful
speed ratings in themselves only tell a part of the story, in essence the patternform utility comes from the fact that you can dissect the ratings with a few clicks and find out if the horse likes a particular course type, big or small fields, has a strong seasonal preference and so much more all things that takes hours of dissection even with raceforms "professional" disks and service. All the rival carefully designed ratings sites both free and extortionately expensive lack the interactivity of patterform that yields with a few clicks a better insight into the runners in any race than you can get with any non interactive rating no matter how cleverly derived. Even so on its own it is still not enough. You need trainer info jockey info clerk of the course preferences too, as you point out and still a really good look at the actual horses is going to tell you as much if not more than all of these.
Speed ratings take you a little beyond pin sticking, enough to avoid losing too quickly. A bit more research and care gets you to real profit. I don't think that speed ratings have suddenly become less useful. It IS true though that since 2005 the overall odds setting methods changed and the value (actual probability of winning) versus odds became less favourable for the more favoured horses and the incorporation of favourite longshot bias theory into odds setting at the big bookmakers also dented the margin for the rating based bettor but overall it just means you have to be more carefull and dig even deeper for a true edge.
Nathan and Dagil and Martin all obviously use the ratings here at patternform as do I but like you I am sure we all use other information and experience to come up with predicitions of how a race is likely to go. I learn from some of their thoughts something new every week and I have been betting on horses all the way back to when one studied form on ones stocking soles with the form pages of racing post and sporting life spread out on the floor and a shelf of form books and index cards carefully written on each horse. Back then it took a week to analyse 3 or 4 races BUT few others did so the odds were often HUGE on what was actually a near certainty. Now it takes maybe half an hour to do a race reasonable justice but the bookies and lots of other punters can do that too so all the obvious edges are gone. Fortunately the pro pundits for the racing press are still pretty careless and so dont completely squash all the value out of every race

With respect to the AW ratings you were saying you were having trouble with I would suggest that one possible explanation for your finding your ratings going skewiff is the course issue we were discussing in the posts above. Currently I am making a very nice return on Kempton lingfield and Southall with tailored interpretation largely along the lines I have laid out in the above posts but I am less comfortable at wolverhampton its slowish polytrack other factors I am just not sure enough of to nail a race enough to risk more than a couple of quid on. Also one point I might edit in the above post is that at this time of year especially you have to be extra careful as there is the 2 yo 3 yo problem and the fact that turf specialist horses are returning to the AW at this time of year and you need to take account of their longer term results. I assume that anyone using patternform following my or anyone elses advice will fairly quickly pick up on the concepts and experiment themselves using historical races and "get the hang" of the whole thing. I hope that what I have put up is of use but I am sure that all of us tend to use different techniques for each and every race as we check things as they develop when working on a given race. Working out when a clear preference for tight courses is less important than a clear preference for soft going for example. Sometimes you just can't work it out but I take that as positive information too it means you just bet on a different race




PS Which, if any, Betting bots do you guys use and why?

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"if you are a horse the most important thing to remember is that you are almost completely defenceless and you taste good!!" Lucy Rees in "The Horses Mind

weee86
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:22 am

Re: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby weee86 » Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:00 am

In what regards to the statement "In simple terms, for all tracks except Sthl and Lingfield.
Select for going STD, STD SLOW, STDFAST and also select GF.", does that mean we don't select the different goings for Southwell and Lingfield?
In what kinds of course should we select the option "Course" to handicap the race?And what about the surface and config?

martinkil
Posts: 970
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby martinkil » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:15 am

Didn't he explain it in the paragraph following that statement

(These selections are most useful for general use but particularly at the beginning of the flat season or for higher class races some horses come in to AW with no previous form on AW but very good form on gd or gs. until these horses have known form on AW they should not be overlooked at least as a threat typically though horses that go well on GF ground prosper on AW while softer ground specialists do not. The exception is that some heavy going horses do get on well in firbresand but generally heavy going horses will not prosper on poytrack.)

Remember these are only opinions though.

weee86
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:22 am

Re: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby weee86 » Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:30 pm

I'm sorry, I wasn't sure If I had understand it correctly.

SteveV
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:20 pm

Re: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby SteveV » Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:48 pm

I would argue that A/W racing is now specialised to the point that you can't just use STD fst/slw as a general going parameter for the different tracks. Only Southwell uses Fibresand and you cannot use polytrack or tapeta form as any guide there. Similarly at Wolverhampton the tapeta surface is completely different to the old surface so I only use the six months filter there (as it was installed in August 2014).

winnergram
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:25 pm

Re: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby winnergram » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:41 pm

used this method today and won a nice little treble at Wolves. Thank you Aubrey. Will continue to investigate. Are any of you on Twitter?

Jakilad40
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Apr 24, 2016 9:14 pm

Re: WINNING WITH PATTERNFORM ON ALL WEATHER RACES

Postby Jakilad40 » Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:24 pm

Very good post and comments guys. I'd like to know how Aubrey uses patternform fir jumps racing if he's still on here :D


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