the following exchange was taken from the Patterform Facebook group:
Martin Kilgariff: Have a look at the files section of this group - https://www.facebook.com/groups/121557484526791/files/ - any of my files will have dobbing analysis usig mainly the moneyform cards
Martin Cooper: Thanks for the link....I've been reading through your guides Martin and what comes through is that dobbing is essential betting on certain price movements which take place between placing the back and lay bets for a particular horse. So essentially your looking for horses that are essentially overpriced before the off which you think will go off much shorter at SP? Or horses that are likely to lead for the early part of a race....hence making a lay bet in running. So in effect instead of studying the horses form for the purposes of making a simple back bet, you study the horses price (odds) movements in previous races to assess whether it has a better than 50% chance of dobbing to make a profitable trade. It seems very clever Martin. Your guides are very good...thank you for the link once again.
Martin Kilgariff: Almost martin, but it's not so much the pre-race movements I'm interested but the Pre-race price > In-Play price price movement. And it's from the moneyform cards that I get a runner inplay price low history. I then use that like other use a finishing position formline to try to predict how low the runner will go today - it a new world order I tell you - a paradigm shift no less
Martin Cooper Oh and before I forget...the MoneyForm Price Movement Tool graphs render beautifully in Chrome and would hazard a guess a totally unique innovation in the field of finding potential horses to dob. Be interesting to watch re runs and have the graphs open too (of that race) and you could stop the reruns at certain times and check the horse(s) price(s) at that stage of the race....I suppose backing hold up horses would prove hard to dob with unless you thought it was going to win by a very clear margin....and you could wait to make your lay bet when you see it go for home. Anyway all interesting stuff.
Martin Kilgariff Not at all - It's movement that's important - If a hold up horse moves from the back into mid-field it's price will drop - in the inplay market bettors are always trying to second guess what's going to happen which is why you get such wild inplay swings in prices
Martin Kilgariff In one way it's running style can be irrelevant, If I have a runner which Moneyform wells me has DOBBED in it’s last 6 races at 3.0 or lower – I almost don’t care about it’s running style – as long as it’s in a similar conditions I’ll back it to DOB
Let us know how you use Moneyform (to help newcomers0
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