Back Runners first/no place

[shakeshuck]

I'm a bit early today so I'll post the shortlist in case I forget later

Bangor
3.00 Freckle Face

Fontwell
3.05 Join the Navy - very unlikely to come down far enough in price but I'll post it on the off chance

Kelso
4.35 Cool Baranca

[shakeshuck]

Results

No horses qualified on price.

[shakeshuck]

Sorry I'm late posting today. I've just looked at the races; there would have been four on the shortlist, two not qualifying on price.

I'll include the two qualifiers here for completeness.

Market Rasen
2.30 Castle View @ 4.85 - no place

Wincanton
2.20 Donapollo @ 5.86 (just qualifies) - no place

c/f +0.06
today +2
total +2.06

Unfortunately my other half is off this week so postings may be sporadic (don't ask!) but I'll do my best to get them done in time.

[shakeshuck]

Quite a few possibles this Monday... as per usual a lot of prices are hard to gauge at this hour.

Taunton
3.20 Barton Rose
4.20 Swampfire
4.50 Sly John - Favourite @ 4.0
5.20 Bother Lad

Towcester
3.00 Madam Lilibet
4.00 Crouching Harry
4.00 Frank N Fair

Wolverhampton
2.05 Athenia Garden
2.05 Lucky Boo - @ 3.45
3.40 Prime Exhibit
4.40 Stamp Duty - @ 4.3

[shakeshuck]

PLEASE READ!!

Can I please ask anyone reading this thread to comment on the following:

I am unsure what to do as far as the results are concerned when a horse starts at a qualifying price in the morning but drifts to a non-qualifying price before the race. An example of that today was Lucky Boo who was at 3.45 at the time of posting, but went out to 7.6 at BSP.

Do you guys think this qualifies as a bet (at the early price), as we could easily have bet on it early - in fact 3.45 is a VERY good price - or should I only go off prices just before the off?
To add to the discussion, I could also suggest that if we had the tools available we could have taken the 3.45 price (effectively LAYING 2nd/3rd) and reversed the position (effectively BACKING) nearer 7.6 for a greened up trade.

[shakeshuck]

Results (mostly 3 mins before scheduled start time, otherwise BSP)

Taunton
3.20 Barton Rose - DNQ (Did Not Qualify)
4.20 Swampfire @ 5.7 - no place +1
4.50 Sly John @ 4.2 - 1st +1
5.20 Bother Lad @ 3.65 - no place +1

Towcester
3.00 Madam Lilibet @ 5.5 - no place +1
4.00 Crouching Harry @ 5.25 - 2nd -4.25 *see comment below
4.00 Frank N Fair @ 5.05 - no place +1

Wolverhampton
2.05 Athenia Garden - DNQ
2.05 Lucky Boo @ 3.45 - no place +1 - I'll let this stand unless comments decide otherwise
3.40 Prime Exhibit @ 5.3 - no place +1
4.40 Stamp Duty - @ 4.3 - no place +1

c/f +2.06
today +3.75
total +5.81

*I was annoyed with this result - this horse was obviously better than the winner at the finish, I can only blame the jockey for turning the tap on way too late!

[shakeshuck]

A more sensible number of selections today. Once again there is room for improvement in most of these prices.

Southwell
2.10 According to Them - unlikely to get to a qualifying price

Wolverhampton
2.20 Game Mascot @ 4.2

Hexham
3.35 Flaming Thistle @ 4.9
4.10 Dusky Bob
4.10 Cruachan @ 6.0 (a touch over but may come in a bit)

[shakeshuck]

Results

Southwell
2.10 According to Them - DNQ

Wolverhampton
2.20 Game Mascot @ 3.6 - no place +1

Hexham
3.35 Flaming Thistle @ 5.6 - 1st +1
4.10 Dusky Bob - DNQ
4.10 Cruachan @ 4.1 - no place +1

c/f +5.81
today +3.0
total +8.81

[gladman]

PLEASE READ!!

Can I please ask anyone reading this thread to comment on the following:

I am unsure what to do as far as the results are concerned when a horse starts at a qualifying price in the morning but drifts to a non-qualifying price before the race. An example of that today was Lucky Boo who was at 3.45 at the time of posting, but went out to 7.6 at BSP.

Do you guys think this qualifies as a bet (at the early price), as we could easily have bet on it early - in fact 3.45 is a VERY good price - or should I only go off prices just before the off?
To add to the discussion, I could also suggest that if we had the tools available we could have taken the 3.45 price (effectively LAYING 2nd/3rd) and reversed the position (effectively BACKING) nearer 7.6 for a greened up trade.

Hi Shakeshuck,

I've new to the forum and have just come across your thread.
I think that to keep the results fair you shouldn't pick and choose which early prices you take but I think it's a great idea to note early prices and BSP as you can never be armed with to much data

Some things you may need to bear in mind with taking early prices is that if there is a non-runner you will also need to alter the prices to take into account the reduction factor that betfair apply but as a layer this should decrease your liability which is a positive in my opinion. If your also looking at how much money can be made you should also look at the liquidity of the early prices as there often isn't very much available (If you want to take a £100 bet it may not be possible at the early price but you will usually always get that matched just before the off.) Keeping a note of both will enable you to see what % of bets could be greened up.

Depending on your spreadsheet skills you can the calculate the profit you would make by greening up as opposed to just letting it run as a good value bet. But then it raises the question of what would you do if the price begins to shorten? Would you take an early loss then jump back in the market at the off and when the price has bottomed out or keep the bet and let it run as a poor value bet?

I must admit that I like backing hold up runners if there are 2 or 3 front runners in a race as they often burn each other out and allow the others to easily pass them. If I was running a system based on pace analysis alone I would also keep a note of the number of front runners, Prominent, mid-div, and hold up runners. I believe a race with only 1 front runner will produce much better results than races where the there are 2 or 3 (I'm not fully sure on exactly how you make your selections so you may already be doing something like this).

Hope this helps and I'm looking forward to following your system.
All the best.

[shakeshuck]

Hi Gladman, thanks for the input.

I am trying to be fair, and agree that consistency is important.

One of the things you mention has given me a headache and that is withdrawn horses. Because I'm using a two-sided bet I don't think it's guaranteed that a non-runner will work in our favour and shorten the odds all the time. I'll have to get a pencil and see if I can figure it out!

Up to now I had only been looking for horses with certain criteria; I hadn't been taking into consideration what the other horses were likely to do. As I'm looking for hold-up runners, in most cases there are plenty of front-runners that will hopefully do their job; but I take what you're saying about them possibly interfering with each other's 'ideal' racing speed and causing unexpected results. More for me to ponder!

I also try to quote prices for a few mins before the off because you wouldn't be able to do these bets at BSP - but if I miss the price at that time, BSP will at least be in the ballpark (minus book variance, etc).

Cheers, and good luck for today