Back Runners first/no place

[shakeshuck]

I'm posting early again today, so take these prices with a pinch of salt

Lingfield
3.00 Peak Storm @ 3.35

Southwell
3.20 Noble Citizen @ 4.5
3.50 Kerbaaj @ 5.1

Newton Abbot
4.40 Storm Alert @ 5.5
(Last two runs have been front/mid running)

Kempton
6.45 Elusive Ellen @ 5.8 (front/mid running last FOUR times)
6.45 Flamborough Breeze @ 5.5 (front/mid running last two times)
These last two are at very high prices considering they are the 1st/2nd fav and it's a small field. If the prices don't come in I'd be tempted to stay well clear of these. We shall see!

[shakeshuck]

Results

Lingfield
3.00 Peak Storm @ 3.95 - no place +1

Southwell
3.20 Noble Citizen @ 5.1 - came 3rd -4.1
3.50 Kerbaaj @ 4.55 - no place +1

Newton Abbot
4.40 Storm Alert @ 4.6 - no place +1

Kempton
6.45 Elusive Ellen @ 4.67 - 1st +1
6.45 Flamborough Breeze @ 6.0 - DNQ (But only just. Finished no place, anyway)

See - the system knows better than I do!

c/f +8.81
today -0.1
total +8.71

[shakeshuck]

OK, taking Gladman's comments on board I have decided to recalculate the totals so far. If anyone wants to cry foul, please do - more comments will be gladly appreciated. Please don't think I'm back-fitting the results, that is not my intention.
The reason for doing this is to ensure a consistent record; as previously mentioned, withdrawn horses will alter the prices, and taking early prices means we don't have an accurate guide of the system's performance. If the price could have been taken at 3.5, but then it goes to 5.8, at what price should I calculate the losses, as it could have been taken anywhere in between? I need to try to fix a single price to work with as far as the results are concerned, so I'll calculate results from the later price (ideally a few mins just before the off, but BSP if I'm not around to record it). Be aware that me using BSP also is not perfect - it will give a slightly better result than using the just before figures due to book%.
If the horse doesn't qualify at the later price, it will be ignored from the totals.

After these alterations, I make the total +12.81

Please feel free to comment if you disagree.

[shakeshuck]

Here are today's choices.
I'll continue to quote early prices if they're somewhere near as they may become useful at a later date.

Wolverhampton
1.50 Bond Blade @ 3.7
1.50 Lizzy's dream @ 5.0
3.25 Apache Glory @ 5.6
4.30 Fire in Babylon @ 5.9

Ffos Las
2.40 Tambura @ 2.55 - I was unsure whether to include this, as it fits the system as it is at the moment (in my head!) but is the first time I've had a selection with two '1's in the pace notes. At the price it's worth the risk but if it goes out to 5.9...! Again, I'll include it for the record but might decide to drop any future selections like this.
3.15 According to Palm

Chelmsford
5.45 Great Expectations

Have a good day

[shakeshuck]

What a horrible day for this system. It was very close to being much worse, too - three DNQs, one quite close in price that came second.

Results

Wolverhampton
1.50 Bond Blade @ 4.0 - 3rd -3.0
1.50 Lizzy's dream @ 5.0 - no place +1
3.25 Apache Glory @ 4.15 - no place +1
4.30 Fire in Babylon @ 6.4 - DNQ (2nd!)

Ffos Las
2.40 Tambura @ 2.6 - 2nd -1.6
3.15 According to Palm - DNQ (NP)

Chelmsford
5.45 Great Expectations @ 6.35 - DNQ (NP)

c/f +12.81
today -2.6
total +10.21

[shakeshuck]

Morning Guys. Not too many today, one probably won't make the cut.

Newcastle
3.10 King's Chorister @ 5.2 - did well for us last time (1st) let's see how it goes today
3.40 Shadows Lengthen @ 5.7
3.40 De Vous A Moi @ 3.1 (currently close Fav/2F)
5.25 Native Optimist

[shakeshuck]

As a side note (something to bear in mind) I notice that so far we have had 5 1sts and 29 no places - at a cutoff price of 6.0 (with many prices below that), it would have been better to lay the 1pt profit on the win to give us a slightly better profit on the No Places, and would also have reduced the losses slightly when the bet went against us.

I won't take this into consideration as of yet, but it is worth making a note of.

[shakeshuck]

Another so-so day.
King's Chorister's price was all over the place before the off with very little money on offer. Spent most of the time above the qualifying figure and BSP confirms it was just over. Shame, as it started at 27.9 in the win market and hit 2.08 in running, only to finish out of the places.

Results

Newcastle
3.10 King's Chorister @ 6.0 - DNQ
3.40 Shadows Lengthen - DNQ - lucky for us, as it came 3rd.
3.40 De Vous A Moi @ 2.8 - 2nd -1.8
5.25 Native Optimist @ 5.34 - no place +1

c/f +10.21
today -0.8
total +9.41

[shakeshuck]

Here we are with today's hopefuls. Some big fields and (too) high prices but maybe they'll come in a bit.

Doncaster
3.10 Donny Rover @ 6.35
3.45 Gabrial @ 6.55

Uttoxeter
2.10 Lean Burn @ 7.2
2.10 Polvere D'oro @ 6.9 - another selection with a '1' in the pace notes, this time at a high price. Be wary.

Stratford
4.10 Edmund Kean @ 4.7
4.10 What a Good Night @ 3.75
4.45 Billy Congo @ 5.15
4.45 Seymour Legend @ 3.1

[shakeshuck]

Another dodgy day.
A couple that would have gone in our favour didn't qualify.
The Lean Burn race had 28 lengths between 1st and the next - the next three had a length between them. Unfortunately ours came 2nd.
Edmund Kean was very close at the line, just not close enough.

Results

Doncaster
3.10 Donny Rover @ 6.25 - DNQ (no place)
3.45 Gabrial @ 6.05 - DNQ (1st)

Uttoxeter
2.10 Lean Burn @ 4.35 - 2nd -3.35
2.10 Polvere D'oro @ 7.55 - DNQ

Stratford
4.10 Edmund Kean @ 4.45 - 2nd -3.45
4.10 What a Good Night @ 3.75 - no place +1
4.45 Billy Congo @ 4.2 - no place +1
4.45 Seymour Legend @ 3.35 - 1st +1

c/f +9.41
today -3.8
total +5.61