Hi Guys,
Martin tells me some of you chaps might have historical data as far as pace is concerned?
I've been looking for a long time to try to predict horses that are all-or-nothing, i.e. they will go for a win or not bother placing. A couple of days ago I found an article that suggested that back runners can frequently fall into this category, and I wondered if anyone had any stats available that could confirm/deny that this is the case?
Any input would be appreciated.
Back Runners first/no place
Re: Back Runners first/no place
What do you mean by a "back runner" - one with a "held up"'ish type running style ?
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Re: Back Runners first/no place
Yes, I mean one of those that doesn't mind being somewhere near the back (either because it's a duffer or because the jockey knows there's soooooo much in reserve it can run past the rest on two legs ).
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Re: Back Runners first/no place
Mmmhhh.
Looking at the pace stats I realise I don't know whether the article meant generally running near the back (as a style) or running at the back for a particular race. That makes it rather difficult.
I've pulled one choice out of the hat for today to see what happens...
Chep 5.20 Grand Gigolo - currently 3.32:1 for laying 2nd/3rd place.
Looking at the pace stats I realise I don't know whether the article meant generally running near the back (as a style) or running at the back for a particular race. That makes it rather difficult.
I've pulled one choice out of the hat for today to see what happens...
Chep 5.20 Grand Gigolo - currently 3.32:1 for laying 2nd/3rd place.
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Re: Back Runners first/no place
Grand Gigolo dropped off the pace very early. That would have been an easy place lay, we didn't need to worry about a 1st place there. +1.
Some more contenders today. It's still early and books are very bad value at the moment. I'll list the current prices in case I forget to check on them later.
Mkt Rasen
2.35 Fort Worth (Favourite!) - a price of 4.68 not to come 2nd.
Warwick
3.50 Pengor's Boy. This looks like a scary one. 2nd Fav, a price of 2.38 not to come 2nd/3rd. Could be fun!
4.50 Crouching Harry. Not one I'd want to lay as a price of 7.33 makes it too risky for me.
5.20 Calgary Bay. Priced at 2.7 not to come 2nd/3rd.
Some more contenders today. It's still early and books are very bad value at the moment. I'll list the current prices in case I forget to check on them later.
Mkt Rasen
2.35 Fort Worth (Favourite!) - a price of 4.68 not to come 2nd.
Warwick
3.50 Pengor's Boy. This looks like a scary one. 2nd Fav, a price of 2.38 not to come 2nd/3rd. Could be fun!
4.50 Crouching Harry. Not one I'd want to lay as a price of 7.33 makes it too risky for me.
5.20 Calgary Bay. Priced at 2.7 not to come 2nd/3rd.
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Re: Back Runners first/no place
Results
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)
Mkt Rasen
2.35 Fort Worth @ 4.2 - no place +1
Warwick
3.50 Pengor's Boy @ non-runner
4.50 Crouching Harry @ 6.3 - 6th
You could perhaps have gone for this as the price was at 5.3 15 mins earlier, but I'll miss it out from the stats to be fair.
5.20 Calgary Bay @ 3.44 - 3rd missed out on 4th by 1/2 length. Went off as fav. as well.
c/f +1
today -1.44
total -0.44
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)
Mkt Rasen
2.35 Fort Worth @ 4.2 - no place +1
Warwick
3.50 Pengor's Boy @ non-runner
4.50 Crouching Harry @ 6.3 - 6th
You could perhaps have gone for this as the price was at 5.3 15 mins earlier, but I'll miss it out from the stats to be fair.
5.20 Calgary Bay @ 3.44 - 3rd missed out on 4th by 1/2 length. Went off as fav. as well.
c/f +1
today -1.44
total -0.44
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- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Today's contenders follow. Early prices are high, they may come in a bit later.
Plumpton
3.00 Kentford Myth - not the best of choices looking at the pace details, but we'll keep in it for the sake of the experiment @ 3.1
5.00 Epsom Flyer - currently a bit high @ 6.7
Taunton
4.20 Worldor - @ 5.0
Plumpton
3.00 Kentford Myth - not the best of choices looking at the pace details, but we'll keep in it for the sake of the experiment @ 3.1
5.00 Epsom Flyer - currently a bit high @ 6.7
Taunton
4.20 Worldor - @ 5.0
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Re: Back Runners first/no place
Results
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)
Plumpton
3.00 Kentford Myth @ 2.97 - no place +1
5.00 Epsom Flyer @ 5.6 - did the dirty on us and placed. -4.6
Taunton
4.20 Worldor - @ 5.0 - higher priced before the off but we could have got on at an earlier price - no place +1
c/f -0.44
today -2.6
total -3.04
Not a good start to the experiment
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)
Plumpton
3.00 Kentford Myth @ 2.97 - no place +1
5.00 Epsom Flyer @ 5.6 - did the dirty on us and placed. -4.6
Taunton
4.20 Worldor - @ 5.0 - higher priced before the off but we could have got on at an earlier price - no place +1
c/f -0.44
today -2.6
total -3.04
Not a good start to the experiment
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- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Short on contenders today.
Cheltenham
2.05 Court Minstrel - way too high @ 7.8 but might come in later
Southwell
3.45 Bedloe's Island - @ 3.7
Cheltenham
2.05 Court Minstrel - way too high @ 7.8 but might come in later
Southwell
3.45 Bedloe's Island - @ 3.7
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Results
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)
Cheltenham
2.05 Court Minstrel - came in to 6.7 so still too high
Southwell
3.45 Bedloe's Island @ 3.7 - no place +1
c/f -3.04
today +1
total -2.04
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)
Cheltenham
2.05 Court Minstrel - came in to 6.7 so still too high
Southwell
3.45 Bedloe's Island @ 3.7 - no place +1
c/f -3.04
today +1
total -2.04
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