Results
Market Rasen
4.25 Smart Catch @ 5.9 - 2nd -4.9
Now, what was I saying about that price range again? More proof in the pot.
c/f +10.66
today -4.9
total +5.76
Back Runners first/no place
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- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Only one today.
Kelso
4.00 Landecker @ 5.25
Top OR and could be in the iffy price range - let's see what happens.
Kelso
4.00 Landecker @ 5.25
Top OR and could be in the iffy price range - let's see what happens.
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Results
Kelso
4.00 Landecker @ 5.6 - 2nd -4.6
c/f +5.76
today -4.6
total +1.16
That reverse bet is looking more promising
Kelso
4.00 Landecker @ 5.6 - 2nd -4.6
c/f +5.76
today -4.6
total +1.16
That reverse bet is looking more promising
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Going back to LW's comments, I did do some research a while ago on the overall speed a race was run at (I think I was looking at the favourite's performance), and while there were small probability variances, I think they were too small to be profitable. I have to admit to being vague about it though, I'll have to see if I can did up my notes and report back.
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Here we go for today's.
Carlisle
2.10 Native Optimist
5.20 Solway Legend
Exeter
3.35 Mount Vesuvius @ 5.0
Southwell
4.30 Showboating @ 3.2
5.30 Montaff
Carlisle
2.10 Native Optimist
5.20 Solway Legend
Exeter
3.35 Mount Vesuvius @ 5.0
Southwell
4.30 Showboating @ 3.2
5.30 Montaff
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- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
More interesting results:
Carlisle
2.10 Native Optimist @ 7.15 - DNQ (no place)
5.20 Solway Legend @ 6.65 - DNQ (2nd - ANOTHER in the 5-7 price range comes in!)
Exeter
3.35 Mount Vesuvius @ 4.4 - no place +1
Southwell
4.30 Showboating @ 3.95 - 1st +1
5.30 Montaff - DNQ
c/f +1.16
today +2
total +3.16
Carlisle
2.10 Native Optimist @ 7.15 - DNQ (no place)
5.20 Solway Legend @ 6.65 - DNQ (2nd - ANOTHER in the 5-7 price range comes in!)
Exeter
3.35 Mount Vesuvius @ 4.4 - no place +1
Southwell
4.30 Showboating @ 3.95 - 1st +1
5.30 Montaff - DNQ
c/f +1.16
today +2
total +3.16
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
I just added up the 5.0-7.0 priced horses, and here are the running totals:
1st or no-placed 33 times
2nd/3rd/etc 10 times giving 49.1 pts
Had you laid the win and backed the pace on these selections you would be up 16.1 pts.
Don't forget the 5-7 price range wasn't deliberately picked, it was just rounding to 1 either side of 6.0 ish horses that seemed to keep coming in. There may be a better range, but you don't want to over-optimise. Also remember we've just had a rush of three horses coming in in that range (giving 15.15 pts). Without those the total would be pretty flat.
1st or no-placed 33 times
2nd/3rd/etc 10 times giving 49.1 pts
Had you laid the win and backed the pace on these selections you would be up 16.1 pts.
Don't forget the 5-7 price range wasn't deliberately picked, it was just rounding to 1 either side of 6.0 ish horses that seemed to keep coming in. There may be a better range, but you don't want to over-optimise. Also remember we've just had a rush of three horses coming in in that range (giving 15.15 pts). Without those the total would be pretty flat.
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Two selections today in the same race, possibly neither of them will qualify.
Beverley
3.05 Ancient Cross
3.05 Barnet Fair
Beverley
3.05 Ancient Cross
3.05 Barnet Fair
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- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
Results
Beverley
3.05 Ancient Cross @ 7.4 - DNQ
3.05 Barnet Fair @ 8.3 - DNQ
No qualifiers, but notice again that Ancient Cross came in 4th (to place) and was priced just above the 5-7 band.
Beverley
3.05 Ancient Cross @ 7.4 - DNQ
3.05 Barnet Fair @ 8.3 - DNQ
No qualifiers, but notice again that Ancient Cross came in 4th (to place) and was priced just above the 5-7 band.
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- Posts: 635
- Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm
Re: Back Runners first/no place
See how we do
Ripon
2.30 Go Go Green @ 5.7
4.15 Old Joe Said
Cheltenham
3.15 Hidden Identity
3.50 Life of a Luso
4.25 Kingsmere @ 4.3
Ripon
2.30 Go Go Green @ 5.7
4.15 Old Joe Said
Cheltenham
3.15 Hidden Identity
3.50 Life of a Luso
4.25 Kingsmere @ 4.3
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