Back Runners first/no place

Pace related selections or just thoughts
shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:57 pm

Results

Market Rasen
4.25 Smart Catch @ 5.9 - 2nd -4.9

Now, what was I saying about that price range again? More proof in the pot. :(

c/f +10.66
today -4.9
total +5.76

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:18 am

Only one today.

Kelso
4.00 Landecker @ 5.25

Top OR and could be in the iffy price range - let's see what happens.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:28 pm

Results

Kelso
4.00 Landecker @ 5.6 - 2nd -4.6

c/f +5.76
today -4.6
total +1.16

That reverse bet is looking more promising :?

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:41 pm

Going back to LW's comments, I did do some research a while ago on the overall speed a race was run at (I think I was looking at the favourite's performance), and while there were small probability variances, I think they were too small to be profitable. I have to admit to being vague about it though, I'll have to see if I can did up my notes and report back.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:43 am

Here we go for today's.

Carlisle
2.10 Native Optimist
5.20 Solway Legend

Exeter
3.35 Mount Vesuvius @ 5.0

Southwell
4.30 Showboating @ 3.2
5.30 Montaff

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:52 pm

More interesting results:

Carlisle
2.10 Native Optimist @ 7.15 - DNQ (no place)
5.20 Solway Legend @ 6.65 - DNQ (2nd - ANOTHER in the 5-7 price range comes in!)

Exeter
3.35 Mount Vesuvius @ 4.4 - no place +1

Southwell
4.30 Showboating @ 3.95 - 1st +1
5.30 Montaff - DNQ

c/f +1.16
today +2
total +3.16

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:50 am

I just added up the 5.0-7.0 priced horses, and here are the running totals:

1st or no-placed 33 times
2nd/3rd/etc 10 times giving 49.1 pts

Had you laid the win and backed the pace on these selections you would be up 16.1 pts.

Don't forget the 5-7 price range wasn't deliberately picked, it was just rounding to 1 either side of 6.0 ish horses that seemed to keep coming in. There may be a better range, but you don't want to over-optimise. Also remember we've just had a rush of three horses coming in in that range (giving 15.15 pts). Without those the total would be pretty flat.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:06 am

Two selections today in the same race, possibly neither of them will qualify.

Beverley
3.05 Ancient Cross
3.05 Barnet Fair

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Results

Beverley
3.05 Ancient Cross @ 7.4 - DNQ
3.05 Barnet Fair @ 8.3 - DNQ

No qualifiers, but notice again that Ancient Cross came in 4th (to place) and was priced just above the 5-7 band.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:28 am

See how we do

Ripon
2.30 Go Go Green @ 5.7
4.15 Old Joe Said

Cheltenham
3.15 Hidden Identity
3.50 Life of a Luso
4.25 Kingsmere @ 4.3


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