Back Runners first/no place

Pace related selections or just thoughts
shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:43 pm

Hi Guys,

Martin tells me some of you chaps might have historical data as far as pace is concerned?

I've been looking for a long time to try to predict horses that are all-or-nothing, i.e. they will go for a win or not bother placing. A couple of days ago I found an article that suggested that back runners can frequently fall into this category, and I wondered if anyone had any stats available that could confirm/deny that this is the case?

Any input would be appreciated. :)

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby martinkil » Fri Mar 06, 2015 3:48 pm

What do you mean by a "back runner" - one with a "held up"'ish type running style ?

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 4:25 pm

Yes, I mean one of those that doesn't mind being somewhere near the back (either because it's a duffer or because the jockey knows there's soooooo much in reserve it can run past the rest on two legs :lol: ).

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:13 pm

Mmmhhh.

Looking at the pace stats I realise I don't know whether the article meant generally running near the back (as a style) or running at the back for a particular race. That makes it rather difficult.

I've pulled one choice out of the hat for today to see what happens...

Chep 5.20 Grand Gigolo - currently 3.32:1 for laying 2nd/3rd place.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Sun Mar 08, 2015 12:13 pm

Grand Gigolo dropped off the pace very early. That would have been an easy place lay, we didn't need to worry about a 1st place there. +1.

Some more contenders today. It's still early and books are very bad value at the moment. I'll list the current prices in case I forget to check on them later.

Mkt Rasen
2.35 Fort Worth (Favourite!) - a price of 4.68 not to come 2nd.

Warwick
3.50 Pengor's Boy. This looks like a scary one. 2nd Fav, a price of 2.38 not to come 2nd/3rd. Could be fun!
4.50 Crouching Harry. Not one I'd want to lay as a price of 7.33 makes it too risky for me.
5.20 Calgary Bay. Priced at 2.7 not to come 2nd/3rd.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:46 pm

Results
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)

Mkt Rasen
2.35 Fort Worth @ 4.2 - no place +1

Warwick
3.50 Pengor's Boy @ non-runner
4.50 Crouching Harry @ 6.3 - 6th
You could perhaps have gone for this as the price was at 5.3 15 mins earlier, but I'll miss it out from the stats to be fair.
5.20 Calgary Bay @ 3.44 - 3rd :( missed out on 4th by 1/2 length. Went off as fav. as well.

c/f +1
today -1.44
total -0.44

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:42 pm

Today's contenders follow. Early prices are high, they may come in a bit later.

Plumpton
3.00 Kentford Myth - not the best of choices looking at the pace details, but we'll keep in it for the sake of the experiment @ 3.1
5.00 Epsom Flyer - currently a bit high @ 6.7

Taunton
4.20 Worldor - @ 5.0

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:12 pm

Results
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)

Plumpton
3.00 Kentford Myth @ 2.97 - no place +1
5.00 Epsom Flyer @ 5.6 - did the dirty on us and placed. -4.6

Taunton
4.20 Worldor - @ 5.0 - higher priced before the off but we could have got on at an earlier price - no place +1

c/f -0.44
today -2.6
total -3.04

Not a good start to the experiment :(

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:13 pm

Short on contenders today.

Cheltenham
2.05 Court Minstrel - way too high @ 7.8 but might come in later

Southwell
3.45 Bedloe's Island - @ 3.7

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:15 pm

Results
(prices 3 mins before expected off time)

Cheltenham
2.05 Court Minstrel - came in to 6.7 so still too high

Southwell
3.45 Bedloe's Island @ 3.7 - no place +1

c/f -3.04
today +1
total -2.04


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