Back Runners first/no place

Pace related selections or just thoughts
LoveWinners
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:53 am

Regarding pace (pace handicapping) it really requires alot of research as to horses characteristics in regards to what is worth a bet in the upcoming race (more widely known as trip handicapping) you need to either be very clever or use short cuts , due to the WIDE VARIETY of racecourses in this country using track bias is a vital key to this process - there are certain races where hold u runners have a edge these are much more rare than races suited to front runners in a vacuum but looking at those is all well and good but without looking at a race in isolation its not very helpful.


1) identify track bias
2) how does the horse fit in overall bias?
3) how is todays race likely to be run? fast pace? slow pace?


From the above you should easily and quickly be able to highlight horses with little chance or those with a decent chance....Remember when a pace is likely to be strongly contested it suits hold up runners , whereas a sole leader with no pace challenge has an advantage.

as the flat is upon us look for draw bias also as it will aid in your overall judgement.

But the biggest edge will always come from your ability to judge the horse itself - this isnt a tough task really , you need to identify if a horse who is likely to be held up can actually win? has it done it before? if it has then is there any point taking it on? there are many races per day and enough to be selective , just because a horse is running against a race condition bias , a pace bias , poor draw you dont have to take it on if it has won when coming up against the same/similar overall circumstances, some horse ABSOLUTELY NEED to come off a fast pace and some need to actually find trouble in running to show their best possible performance figures race horse profiling helps your here.

for example a race like the 355 at doncaster (+ another race at the course at that distance btw )- doncasters historical data over 12 furlongs shows absolutely tiny pace bias in that hold up horses are at no disadvantage compared to any position in fact have slightly performed better but nothing worth noting - whereas the 7 furlongs overall those on the pace have a ok advantage. (nothing special but a advantage none the less)


of course even with a 75/15/10 bias i.e 75% of front runners win over large sample (5 years data at track and trip) doesnt mean other horses other than the front runners can win 25% of the time they will not but in the long run they will out perform mid div and hold up runners....the bias is still true regardless of individual results - something people forget so often is short term result mean nothing - A perfect thing to say to yourself is the old cliche a horse can win DESPITE (insert angle) and not BECAUSE (insert angle) - nothing is cast iron but it doesnt have to be to show a long term edge you can exploit..... in isolated cases a large pace bias track/trip can be compromised by a contested pace.


i could write many things but really it will be pointless for one reason only - you have to find your own way and nothing can or will replace the sheer profitability of doing it yourself.


Be consistent though as you will go though spells where everything goes wrong but dont let it stop you on your quest as if you have a long term edge no losing streak will ever stop you from winning in the long run 8-)



Edit - i should also say to watch out for conscious efforts from staff to change a bias , things like moving the starting stalls , moving start position , moving rails etc etc be very switched on in this matter.

A little trick is to note "mysterious" high frequency of certain horse withdraw before the off at certain tracks , this shows where a draw bias is highly probable and happens year in year out , those who are left in against the bias will likely struggle especially when off the pace also , its mainly happens when a bend comes up quickly in a sprint race and wide drawn horse struggle to get a good possi , this is a easy task to gather data and will also help in overall ability to find good horses to take on


i hope those little pointers help in some way or another and wish you luck in your quest for profitability and journey into one of the hardest handicapping angles possible due to the sheer variations of pace/track/trip variants added to general handicapping and profiling but when you do it yourself you will really feel good about the work you have put in and likely teach us all a thing or two as the overall factors if done correctly seem to miss the majorities radar :(

martinkil
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby martinkil » Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:40 am

Didn't York used to have an amazing bias on an easy surface over about a mile. Something about joggers compacting the track over time and anything which got lose on the lead an up against the rails was very difficult to beat in handicaps. Not sure if they just moved the rails or what but it's no longer there.

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Sun Mar 29, 2015 8:52 am

Hi Guys, I'm only popping in quickly - I'll read the comments a little later, thanks.

Two possibles, both likely to be too high:

Ascot
5.15 Calgary Bay

Doncaster
5.30 Boston Blue

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:29 pm

Results

Ascot
5.15 Calgary Bay @ 4.95 - 1st +1

Doncaster
5.30 Boston Blue @ 28.9 :roll: - DNQ

c/f +5.61
today +1.0
total +6.61

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:59 am

No Selections qualify today.

I've scanned LoveWinners comments, but haven't had chance to read them thoroughly yet. I will. :)

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:36 am

Not much to go at this Tuesday.

Southwell
3.25 Bond Fastrac @ 4.3
5.05 Howz The family - unlikely to qualify

Huntingdon
3.50 Clock on Tom - unlikely to qualify
3.50 Swampfire - unlikely to qualify

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:44 pm

Results

Southwell
3.25 Bond Fastrac @ 4.3 - no place +1
5.05 Howz The family - DNQ

Huntingdon
3.50 Clock on Tom @ 5.7 - no place +1
3.50 Swampfire - N/R

c/f +6.61
today +2.0
total +8.61

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:38 am

Selections thin on the ground today. One possibility, that probably won't qualify:

Wincanton
2.20 Oscar Prairie

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:39 pm

Results

Wincanton
2.20 Oscar Prairie @ 3.3 - surprisingly low price after my early comment! - no place +1

c/f +8.61
today +1.0
total +9.61

shakeshuck
Posts: 635
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:12 pm

Re: Back Runners first/no place

Postby shakeshuck » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:42 am

Today's little lot to watch

Taunton
2.50 Classical Art @ 3.92
*If this race loses another runner i.e. 7 runners or less, this does not qualify

Wolverhampton
3.40 Monsieur Chevalier
4.10 Prime Exhibit
5.10 Daring Dragon @ 3.9


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