Food for thought : 2 Jan : (C2) Luv U Whatever

Pace related selections or just thoughts
Buzzit
Posts: 203
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Food for thought : 2 Jan : (C2) Luv U Whatever

Postby Buzzit » Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:42 pm

Hi All,

http://www.patternform.co.uk/cards/2016/jan/chelmsford%20(aw)_2016-01-02_320_pace_v3.php

Having spent a lot of time reading up on pace over the last few months (and the idea of what comes first.. pace or speed) - I thought I would point out this particular field for a couple of my thoughts :

1) William Quirini (circa 1980) postulated that early leaders could be identified by allocating speed points to where a horse was positioned in the field at the first call (or apx at 1/3 distance) dependent on race distance... Quirini also postulated that this should generally be done via analysis of last 5 races at most - dependant on whether race being analysed was sprint or further and what distance the analysed horse had been running at.

2) Based on this you can get a general idea of what way horses are likely to be run - basically identifying leaders, trackers, and the rear guard.

3) If a horse looks to have a significant speed point advantage over the field then it can have a significant chance of making all, as it does not have to burn its energy fighting to get or keep the lead.

4) Conceptualise that regardless the quality of the field almost any horse has the abiity to be at the front of the field in the early stages

4) Taking Pace V3 as above you can see some of these ideas reflected : My take on the field as follows :

Paddy's Motorbike : (3) 3,4,3,5,2 : I think a bit generous - often midfield early and a one paced finisher - to me more of a (5)
Precision Five : (4) 8,8,3,9,3 : On recent efforts is nowhere near a leader - give (7)
Intense Tango : (3) 3,7,3,7,7 : On recent efforts not leading - give (5)
Groovejet : (4) 2,4,9,1,4 : Hard to pin down - but weakens every race regardless of pacing - (4)
Luv U Whatever : (3) 1,3,3,3,3 : Either leading or chasing leaders - quality of opposition - (2)
Percy Veer : (3) 3,5,3,7,3 : Think is a tracker or midfielder / not leader - (5)
Ballynanty : (3) 7,4,4,2,3 : recently held up + midfield : failed leader - (5)

With Luv U Whatever a clear pace leader in this field I believed it had a great chance of getting an easy lead and therefore being able to keep it - as what happened

Above is just thoughts and not set in stone - so welcome any ideas or discussion.. pace is only one component after all...

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