Track Variants

Pace related selections or just thoughts
dangersteve
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 1:59 pm

Track Variants

Postby dangersteve » Wed Feb 04, 2015 2:18 pm

Hi fellas.

I'm just looking for your thoughts on the most accurate ways of calculating a track variant for AW racing in the UK.

Currently I calculate the difference between my own par times for each distance and the winning time on a particular day and then use the average. However I cant help but feel this isn't a very accurate way of calculating a variant and should only be used a part of the calculation. There are of course other factors such as horse form, pace and the quality of a field (and more) which all must somehow be accounted for. I know from reading 'Beyer On Speed' he uses a 'Projection Method' for calculating the variant based on a projected speed figure for the eventual winner vs the actual speed figure for the winning time. To me that all seems an excellent methodology but its a bit like the chicken and the egg. Without the speed figures which have been calculated using the variant, how can you predict an accurate rating in the first place?

I'll leave it at that for now and I look forward to the response!

Steve.

Buzzit
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: Track Variants

Postby Buzzit » Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:54 pm

Hi Steve

I think the best thing to do is look at averages (after deducting lowest 15% / highest 15% winning speed times) by course / class / distance / going/ horse age / race type. I don't keep this data, but hopefully will get something like it one day.

** added to patternform wish list**

Steve


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