Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Discuss any of the upcoming elections in the USA
martinkil
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Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:54 pm

I'll put my thoughts about this election - presently

martinkil
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:16 pm

In any normal year I wouldn't even be writing about a special election in Arizona's 8th congressional district, since it would be a no brainer slam dunk for the republicans who have a voter registration lead over the Democrat and the district which voted for Trump by 20% in the 2016 election.

Registered Voters for the Arizona's 8th congressional district:
Republican = 187,815 – Democrats = 110,162, Others = 153,522

Although the republican have a lead the key group are those non-affiliated who are over 30% of the electorate.

But this is no normal year – it's a Trump election year, and that makes all the difference.
In the last two federal special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania, states and districts which also voted for Trump by 20+ points the Democrats were able to motivate the base and enough disillusioned republican and independents to win both contests against market expectations.

The question is whether Arizona's 8th congressional district is an election too far (to the right!), and if not, what price is acceptable for a Democratic win.

An early internal poll for the Democratic candidate had her 14% points behind the Republican, but a poll published last week had that down to 10%. Two polls have been published early this week. One of them is another by the Democratic candidate which has her neck and neck at 44%/44%, which is a fair turnaround (if it can be believed) the other is by the Emerson college which gives the Democrat a small lead 45%/46%, which could support the Democratic candidates poll. It's food for thought anyway.

There is a third poll which gives the republican a 9% lead, but the firm has only ever produced three polls and published a FAKE poll for the Pennsylvania election (they admitted it was fake), although paradoxically that fake poll actually got the result almost dead right!!

Historically special elections are very difficult to poll simply because turnout can vary so much, but the fact that two polls give the a statistical dead heat may indicate that there is a small chance that this seat could actually switch to the Democrats.

Earlier in the week I was able to lay the Republican at an average of 1.1, which given the new polls is an acceptable risk. My gut feeling is that the Republican will probably win by between 3%-6%, which will still be another blow to the republicans leading into the mid-terms, losing what should be an easy win. There is a chance the Blue Wave is going to be a bit of a tsunami which is what we'll need for the Democrat to win this special election

martinkil
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:57 pm

Tuesday 24 April
An early voting state. If you want to look at the early ballot breakdown for Arizona 8th it available at: -http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics.

It strongly supports the narrative that the district is RED leaning, but that will give you the base numbers, but it won't give any indication of crossover voting (Rep voting Dem). For that we need to look at the two public poll, the OH predictive (+10 Rep), and the Emerson (+1 Dem).

Both have problems, they both possibly over sample better educated, and they take opposite view of the age distribution.

The OH predictive sample has 19% under 55's, and the emerson sample has 49% under 55's.
I think – 35-40% would be more representative (early votes have 24.6% under 55 - with 30 – 35% still to vote on election day who will be decidedly younger).

There is another emerson poll out on Monday and it will be interesting to see if the demographics change and how that effects the bottom line. The emerson sample had over 50% who had already voted and they had broken almost 50/50 Rep/Dem, but that may be due to their younger age distribution.

There is one last thing which could have an influence on the election day voting. Teachers in several RED states have been on strike recently. Arizona teachers are “walking out” next Thursday, and they have broad support of parents since it isn't just wages increases, but education budget increases they want. The younger voters on Tuesday will be the parents, rather than grand parents, and in the emerson poll, education was joint top with immigration, and those who chose education broke 67%/22% for the dems.

At the moment I rate this a 75%/25% Rep/Dems. Most likely a 4-8% rep win, but if the blue wave was to be a tsunami it could just ... at a stretch .. go the same way as the last two special elections.

martinkil
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:20 pm

The new emerson poll has Debbie Lesko (R) 49% v Hiral Tipirneni (D) 43% | Arizona 8th Congressional District Special.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z560IZfVNS0 (podcast)

Within the podcast they indicate that they're using the early voting breakdown of party returns to influence their turnout model. Hopefully later today they'll have the crosstabs available. But on the face of it a 6% win for the Republicans looks most likely. Will be interested to see how this effects the market.

martinkil
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:22 pm

This second emerson poll poses more questions than it answers

The 18-54 age group now make up just 27.1% of the sample.
In Early voting the 18-54 age group make up 25.03% of the votes already cast.
If there are still 25% of the votes to be cast on Tuesday this implies that only 33% of Tuesday's voters will be under 55 – which I think is unlikely.

This 18-55 samples between the two polls is like chalk and cheese.

The first emerson poll had the 18-34 breaking REP 57/33
The second emerson poll had the 18-34 breaking DEM 48/39

The first emerson poll had the 35-54 breaking DEM 59/34
The second emerson poll had the 35-54 breaking REP 52/35

The 55-74 were very close in both, 46/46 then 47/45
The 75+ broke for the REP in both, 55/33 then 62/37

The smaller sample sizes for the 18-34 and 35-54 sub groups will have contributed to this wild variance, but the question is which of the samples is the more representative – they both can't be.

For the 18-34 age group within the early voting ballots party registration are Rep/Dem/oth 35%/35%/28% - so a vote for the DEM is most likely

For the 35-54 age group within the early voting ballots party registration are Rep/Dem/oth 45%/29%/25%. There ate two samples – one strongly DEM, one strongly REP

For the 55-74 age group within the early voting ballots party registration are Rep/Dem/oth 49%/28%/23%. Both samples gave close results.

For the 75+ age group within the early voting ballots party registration are Rep/Dem/oth 54%/25%/21%. Both samples gave strongly REP.

The older the age group within the early voting the higher the percentage of registered republicans.

The 35-54 age group are the problem. Since the 35-54 age group has a lower percentage of republicans than the 55-74 age group it might be logical to consider that they might vote less republican than the 55-74 age group.

There are probably lots of other dynamics (education for instance) influencing how the age group might vote, but since we have two available samples for this 35-64 age group it and one breaks more for the DEMS I'm more inclined to consider this more representative – although the registration balance might means the survey overstates the degree they'll break for the DEMS.

A bit convoluted but it give a logical basis for a view that the race is going to be a lot closer than the latest poll suggests.
I may well keep my position, and maybe look to lay a lot lower if sentiment move the market in that direction.

It's a case of risking losing small to win big - I'll take the risk with this one.

LoveWinners
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:40 pm

great review and analysis martin, love it.

I think the dems are going to be in for a correction and results likely even out as time goes by. Trump is an anomaly and reactions have been completely OTT against him , Whilst questions should be asked ,as always The vitriol against him from the left media outlets will ultimately backfire on them, Facts beat feelings and i bet his approval rating will continue to go north. Early results against Red looked amazing results on the face of it but i feel we will see a return to normal results in the very near future.

martinkil
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:25 am

The results are almost all in (about 16k early ballots handed in on the day to go), and it looks like my prediction
Most likely a 4-8% rep win
will be annoyingly correct with a 5% win for the Republicans. That though represents a 17% swing away from the last two republican victories - so I've lost some today - only lent hopefully.

There have now been 9 special election since Trump was elected, and although the republicans have won most of them, many are with very reduced majorities, 7 with double digit swings and just two with single digit swings. The double digit swing in Arizona last night bodes well for the Arizona senatorial race in the 2018 mid-terms

martinkil
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:57 am

LoveWinners wrote:great review and analysis martin, love it.

I think the dems are going to be in for a correction and results likely even out as time goes by. Trump is an anomaly and reactions have been completely OTT against him , Whilst questions should be asked ,as always The vitriol against him from the left media outlets will ultimately backfire on them, Facts beat feelings and i bet his approval rating will continue to go north. Early results against Red looked amazing results on the face of it but i feel we will see a return to normal results in the very near future.


I'm not sure I agree. The generic ballot (rep vs Dem) is down to around +5 to the DEMS (was 10+ last year), but it not just sentiment which is important in the "off year", it's enthusiasm, as well. In many races the democratic base didn't vote enough in the 2016 election, and they've seen the result, and they're not making that mistake again.

There has also been a significant uptick in grassroot activity with a record number of women running for office, many from working class backgrounds and many moribund state democratic parties are having new life breathed into them by middle aged (predominantly women) citizens who have become politically active after Trumps election. I'm watching the democratic primaries and many many candidate are using online fund raising to finance their primary run (almost ignoring the Democratic National Committee - DNC), and some are winning via an army of volunteers. It a bit like the Tea Party in the Republican party after 2008, except unlike the Tea Party which was funded by the billionaire Koch brothers, this is being financed by small donations, much like Bernie Sanders presidential campaign.

Historically which ever party wins the presidency, loses ground in the following mid terms. This year there has been a record number of incumbents (mainly republicans) deciding not to run in 2018 (Paul Ryan the speaker being a high profile one), and it's much easier to defend a seat with an incumbent than an open seat. I have no doubt that the republicans will lose control of the house (the 1.48 is a gift), the question is whether they will lose control of the senate.

LoveWinners
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:23 pm

martin at 4/5 is underbet for 50+ for republicans in the senate midterms, I think thats buying money and should be 8/15 to 4/6 Range . odds for the house looks too tight to take a shot either side to me and is price up about where i would have it. The long game might be where the real value is as 2020 presidential market us all over the place but looks at the minute that trump is over bet for the (R) and the bland opposition side in particular Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. Pervey Old Joe will be in for slaughter if he runs and is ridiculously short.Joe Kennedy @66/1 despite his reluctance would be interesting had it not been for his recent state of the union opposition speech which lacked and redeeming quality drool or no-drool. That leaves the more unconventional choices and at this point its hard to see past trump, maybe things turn a little on him and 11/4 comes available later in the year/early19 if so then thats the real bet as he will excel one on one with many of the leading hopes.

It would be good to use some data modelling and set odds with more conviction and could be worth a little tinker around with and see what can be done and an angle to exploit? but at the worst i for one will be reading your thoughts in this section and looking to get myself back on the board while my health stands up.

Thank you for the time you took to cover an interesting subject and one i nearly never get to chat about due to message boards are usually so partisan i feel they are not worth the time getting involved in,even for a passing interest.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:01 pm

I love a good natter about politics, especially when I can include a bit of betting, and data analysis.

For instance in a recent post you noted - Facts beat feelings and i bet his approval rating will continue to go north.

When looking at his approval ratings on the 538 site - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/ - this looks like an upturn for Trump – but we know that different polling companies use different methods and methodologies, and I like to track individual polling companies over time. The last 5 companies returning figures were -

Rasmussen / SurveyMonkey / Harris / YouGov / Fox News
Looking at each of these companies polling over time gives (latest poll is closest to company name) - Approval/Disapproval

Rasmussen …..... 47/52 48/50 50/49 50/49 48/51 47/51 50/49 45/53 46/52 47/52 46/53
SurveyMonkey ... 45/53 44/54 44/54 43/55 44/55 45/54 43/54 44/54 43/55
Harris …........... 44/56 44/56 45/55
YouGov …......... 38/49 38/53 40/49 38/52 39/49 37/52 39/52 40/50 40/51 41/48 41/51
Fox News ......... 44/53 45/52 43/53 45/53

This covers polling from the last 3-4 months
With Rasmussen the latest poll, the approval rating is 1 point above the start rating
With SurveyMonkey the latest poll, the approval rating is 2 point above the start rating
With Harris the latest poll, the approval rating is 1 point below the start rating
With YouGov the latest poll, the approval rating is 3 point below the start rating
With Fox News the latest poll, the approval rating is 1 point below the start rating

I also looked at Quinnipiac, Morning Consult and Ipsos with similar results

Trumps approval rather look rather stagnant to me, and any movement is within the margin of error.
I somehow don't expect the GOP are hoping for Trumps approval ratings to come and save the day, I expect they'll be doubling down on the TAX CUTS to try to save a total disaster in the midterms


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