2018 Midterms - House

Discuss any of the upcoming elections in the USA
martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

2018 Midterms - House

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:51 pm

Posts about the likely makeup of the US House after the 2018 midterms. All seats in the House are included in the 2018 midterms - (Nov 2018)

martinkil
Posts: 944
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2018 Midterms - House

Postby martinkil » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:29 pm

Today the Republican party control the Senate, the House of Representatives and the presidency. In November the Democratic party has the chance of winning back the House and the current price for that on BF is 2.0. A month or so ago it was as low as 1.48, and went above 2.1 last week.

The Democrats in the House currently have 194 seats and will need to hold all their current seats and win 24 of the seats currently held by the republicans.

I think the Democrats will take back control of the House – and here's why.

1 – History – It's an indisputable fact that for most new presidents in the modern era lose party seats in their first midterm. The two exceptions were The G W Bush (after 9/11 and the early years of the Iraq war), Clinton's Second term when there were moves to begin impeachment proceedings (Democrats take note). -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses

2 – Even though Trumps approval ratings have improved from the mid 30% to low 40% he is still well below what is needed to keep the House – and he doesn't have Hillary to help him this time.

3 – Anger wins races in the midterms which is why the losing party from the general usually do well, and there is plenty of that within the resist movement. Poll also show that the Dems are energised more than Republicans (GOP) – it may be self identifying, but wins in Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections support this view.

4 – The GOP tax cuts are not the boon which the GOP thought they would be. In the Pennsylvanian special election they started out with Tax cut ads, but they didn't help the GOP candidate's numbers, and they were quietly dropped. Now it's getting worse -https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/22/17492468/republican-tax-cut-law-poll

5 – Trump failed to repeal the ACA (Obamacare), but he's attacked it via the back door by repealing the “mandate penalty” which means young healthy people won't need to buy health insurance – and many won't, which will make it more expensive for everyone else. Some states (mainly democratic) are implementing their own mandate penalty which may help, and poorer people who receive a tax credit will be shielded from the increase, but many will have increased premiums to pay and these will be known before the November election.

6 – Trump has galvanised grass root movements. Many are focused on getting volunteers involved in canvassing to support a “get the vote out” plan on election day. An interesting one is the “Swing Left” progressive group. It was started in January 2017 and has already raised 4 million to support democratic congressional candidates in swing districts. But it also has an app, where you enter your postcode and it gives you your nearest GOP controlled swing district where you can volunteer to help. The app currently has 400,000 members, which even if a fraction of them volunteer could have a major effect. It's currently targetting 78 congressional districts in 29 states -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYHjYSXz-30

7 – Women are getting active. More women are running as candidates than ever before. So far there are 153 women who have won their primaries (119 dems, 34 GOPs) with 158 women still to have primaries (112 dems 46 GOPs). In polls women more then men show elevated levels on engagement and are more excited about voting (in the DEMS favour) in the midterms.

8 - Trumps trade wars aren't going to help, especially since other nation who are putting in their own retaliatory tariffs are targeting products in states which supported Trump in 2016.

That will do for now


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