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USA 2018 Midterms - Senate

Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:52 pm
by martinkil
Posts about the likely makeup of the US Senate after the 2018 midterms. Only a third of the Senate seats are included in the 2018 midterms - (Nov 2018)

Re: USA 2018 Midterms - Senate

Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:06 pm
by martinkil
There are 100 members in the senate. Currently there are 51 republicans, 47 democrats, and two independent who usually vote with the democrats. Every two year a third of their members are re-elected. This year, of the 33 seats up for re-election, 9 republican, 24 democrat and the two independent. So there isn't much scope for democratic gains, and potential for democratic loss.

The key seats I play are:

Florida – democratic – rated a toss-up by most agencies
Indiana – democratic – rated a toss-up
Missouri - democratic – rated a toss-up
North Dakota - democratic – rated a toss-up
West Virginia - democratic – rated a toss-up
Montana - democratic – rated lean-d
Arizona – republican (retiring) - rated a toss-up
Nevada - republican – rated a toss-up
Tennessee - republican – rated a toss-up/lean-r
Texas - republican – rated lean-r

To take the senate the democtatic party must defend it's 6 seats which are in play, and win two of the four republican seats which are in play.

What the democrats have going for them in their seats in incumbency. All their senators are up for re-election. Of the 4 republican seats in play two are retiring – Arizona and Tennessee.

The most vulnerable democratic seats by the 2016 Trump vote are
West Virginia which went for Trump by 40%
North Dakota which Trump won by 36%,
Montana which went for Trump by 21%
Indiana which went for Trump by 19%
Missouri which went for Trump by 18%
Florida which went for Trump by 1.2%

In West Virginia, the democrat Joe Manchin is out polling his republican rival by a consistent 10% and is likely to hold that seat.

In North Dakota the democrat Heidi Heitkamp is currently trailing her republican but these were partisan polls, and lass partisan polls give this as a tie.

In Montana what little polling there has been gives the Democrat Jon Tester a lead but it has narrowed.

In Indiana polling was very tight, but the last poll gave the democrat Joe Donnelly the incumbent a lead of 12%.

In Missouri the partisan poll give the republican a lead, but the non partisan polls are much closer giving either a tie of a slight lead to Clair McCaskill the incumbent.

In Florida it's looking really close. The democrat was polling well, but in the last month the republican has gained a small lead. It will be interesting to note if it stays that way.

In Arizona the republican incumbent retired and the democrat Kyrsten Sinema has lead in every poll and this must be a great pickup change for the democrats

In Nevada the republican incumbent has only led in two polls by a single point in each case where as the democrat Jacky Rosen has lead in 7 polls buy between 1% and 6%. This is another state the democrats have a great chance of winning.

In Tennessee the republican is retiring and the two parties are running neck and neck with the last 6 polls giving three polls to each side.

Texas should be a slam dunk for the republican Ted Cruz, but the democrat Beto O'Rouke is giving him a run for his money, out raising him and cutting the average poll lead over the last 4 months – May 9%, June 7%, July 6%, August 4%. Cruz is still the fav, but this could be interesting

Re: USA 2018 Midterms - Senate

Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:09 pm
by martinkil
What do I think the most likely result

That the Dems will lose 1 to 2 Seats - Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and possibly an upset in Florida.

But the Dems will also gain between 2 – 3 seats – Arizona and Nevada and an upset win in Texas, but this is a real outsider, I think the republican will retain Tennessee.

On this basis I believe the most likely outcome will be no majority, remembering that in the BF market;
“A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market. ”

For the republicans to lose control of the senate they need a let loss of only 1. For the democrats to gain control of the senate they need a net gain of 4 seats.

For the democrats to gain 4 seats they would been to retain all their current seats, and win all 4 republican “in-play” seats. On Betfair this is currently 9-1 which for me is a little on the low side.

For the republicans to retain their majority they need to win at least two of the democratic seats and only lose two of their own. This is the most likely outcome, but I put this at no better than a 4/5 shot.

I give the chances of a no party having overall control at about 6-4, and the dems gaining a majority at around 20-1.

On that basis I've backed “no Majority” at 4-1 which is it's current price on BF

Re: USA 2018 Midterms - Senate

Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:37 pm
by martinkil
An new emerson poll for the Texas senate race now gives Ted Cruz just a single point lead over Beto O'Rouke - 38/37 - with 21% still undecided.

Re: USA 2018 Midterms - Senate

Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:00 pm
by martinkil
I think Trump strategy is quite clear, give up the House, but double down on the Senate.

Special elections and the polls have painted the picture of two entrenched bases with educated middle class women who would have previously voted GOP (either as registered republicans or independents) switching to the Dems. This means that the GOP expect lots of losses in urban House seats especially with so many open seats likely to fall.

But the senate landscape is much friendlier to the GOP, with several democratic senators defending deeply red seats which went for Trump “bigly” in 2016. Trump has therefore focused on getting his base out hoping there will be enough votes to stem any blue ripple. So the pace of his rallies picked up in October in states which have senate elections especially close elections.

His vitriol level was turned to MAX and immigration and the caravan was put on the top of the pile.
Then when his supporters started murdering people he complains that his momentum has been halted with the media reporting on the news rather than his fake claims.

The main drawback with this approach is that it could alienate independent voters, who could prove to be decisive if they break for the Dems which from the polling looks likely. Recent polling has shown many of the Senate seats in play to be toss-ups, which could well give a reprieve to several very worried democratic senators. It's still a bit of a long shot, but at 5/1 I've gone back into the market for a “no majority” (indies don't count) outcome.