2020 Presidential

Discuss any of the upcoming elections in the USA
martinkil
Posts: 3415
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

2020 Presidential

Postby martinkil » Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:59 pm

The first question to address is whether Donald Trump can be re-elected. It was almost a perfect storm which allowed him to be elected in 2016 even though he attracted almost 3 million less votes than Hillary Clinton. Clinton lost the Electoral College by 304 to 227 mainly due to narrow losses in the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states of Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Had Clinton won those traditionally democratic seats she would have won 273 to 258.

To be re-elected Trump will need to keep those three states as well as keeping the traditional battleground states of Florida, Iowa and Ohio who Obama won in 2012. Normally a president has an average approval rating of over 50% in some part of his presidency, Trump has yet to get that high, that said he is polling at the upper range of his admittedly abysmal ratings due probably with a disinterest amongst independent voters on impeachment.

Results in state and federal election since the president was elected haven't been going well for the president's party either. As well as the democrats taking the House in 2018, both of Virginia's state assemblies have flipped democrat and several governorships have changed hands. In the 2018 election cycle Democrats gained control of 9 state and territorial governorships that had previously been held by Republicans and an independent. They picked up Republican-held open seats in the states of Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada and New Mexico, in addition to defeating Republican incumbents in Illinois and Wisconsin and not losing any seats of their own. Additionally, they won the Republican controlled territory of (Guam) and the independent controlled territory of the (U.S. Virgin Islands). Republicans won the governorship of Alaska previously held by an independent.[2] Democrats also won the total popular vote for the year's gubernatorial elections for the second year in a row.

Trumps base may well be energised, but so is the democratic base and trumps biggest loss has been with college educated suburban women who have switched from republican to democratic in significant numbers such that many previously solid suburban republican house seats switched to the democrats which allowed them to take the house in 2018 and bodes poorly for the presidents chances in 2020.

Yet he's currently an even money chance for the 2020 presidential election.

The only thing trump has going for him in the economy which is doing well, but what hasn't happened is the average voters wage packet hasn't been rising much with most gains going to the top 5% which will be one of the Democratic attack points.

Unless there is a major event like a war or a major terrorist attack I really can't see Trump winning for a second time, and for me he's no value at his current price, which of course means there's plenty of value elsewhere.

martinkil
Posts: 3415
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby martinkil » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:07 pm

Well there was a major event – COVID-19, or as Trump like to call it “the china virus”, but Trumps handling of it may well have been the final nail in his coffin.

But it's been such a strange year that I haven't bet very much at all in this years election. The polls give it to Biden, but the betting markets don't believe the polls and believe they are missing many trump voters. That said they still have Trump as the underdog, just not as “under” as the polls indicate.

That along with the massive pre-election turnout (especially in Texas) create an unusual landscape.

So my approach is to go with one of the extremes, and I'm going to have a few small bets on a Biden Landslide, but nothing will surprise me.

360+ Biden Electoral College Votes
Trump less than 40% vote share

Lets see how the dice fall (although with the mail in ballots they could fall slowly)

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:54 am

disagree strongly here boss

although im massivly ahead in all areas here in the predidential outright as posted previous when i knew that take it from the bern.


my biggest plays now are the relying on the poor polling shown by left wing media pushing markets in a certain direction in particular i smashing the granny out of florida , to ever think this state was up for grabs was strange but the last few weeks i have been listening to barnes and the people pundit and it cemented it all for me :)

Im even large on a state that would be believed to be out of trumps reach in PA so hope the boys are correct :lol:

followed them in big on Jodie Ernst (SEN)also and of course done the 5/1 about the battlegrounds sweep for a little fun bet.

Once florida is called R ill trade some more out on trump i think ;)

Deffinatley worth listening the the PPP podcast on polling and the games played by nate silver of FTE (A source i used numerous times in the past but never again for me after my eyes were opened)

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:31 am

Called it for florida......im celebrating big time and all from discovering a real data anaylst who actually speaks against the mainstream pollsters fictional and ridiculously bias....and im not the only one here doing so looking at his social media although he had a decent following for a while as he not only shows the data but the flaws of big pollsters and he know some personally :lol:

trump was 3.1 earlier and as soon as fl was settling in the numbers moved swiftly as predicted..... trump down to 1.58 and the panic is setting it now, should settle a little soon though
Last edited by LoveWinners on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:24 am, edited 2 times in total.

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:33 am

Now PA is shifting heavily in R favor.......leftist meltdown in 3

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:00 am

.......2

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:39 am

............1

was out again @1.3 on trump, PA is swinging in my fav but going to take the profit now as too tired to continue . Ohio looks a lock , NC and georgia looking like a lock so ...PA Michigan and arizona are likely toss ups here but i need sleep and will happily wait to see if the fun bet miraculously breaks the BLUE wall? i have a bad feeling i wont :lol:

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:51 pm

Wow what a shit show..... I go to sleep and trump is long odds on in the race and R's in WI PA and MI , I wake up and its completely flipped after a quick shut down on the counts only to open and BOOM the probabilty of such shifts seems near impossible so there is no way this get sorted anytime soon as the ballot dumps would have to be insane for this to be straight up..

Fun and games of 2020 but a profitable one :) national pollsters are going to be a key point in making great value bets in the future as long as they are even given 20% consideration which means i do feel confident about taking some stronger stands in future markets ;)

martinkil
Posts: 3415
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby martinkil » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:54 pm

Well done with those winning bets. It looked bad for Biden when I went to bed at 3.20am, but once the postal ballots began being counted in the rust belt biden started catching Trump. Biden looks good for Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, and has a chance in Pennsylvania.
Trump will no doubt wheel out the lawyers.

LoveWinners
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am
Location: Paraguay
Contact:

Re: 2020 Presidential

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:01 am

THATS THE PROB BOSS, everyone knew the vote ins would lean but the that extent??? the markets allowed for this and people on the ground were confident 2 of the 3 would be toss ups but the extent of that vote in effect on the blue wall was insane. Bothe sides were layed up inc the senate races so wouldnt matter which way it went as was called 2 hours before that biden would come out and project the red mirage, he called that right also :lol:

It doesnt matter to me and didnt before i went to bed as i massively scooped but there seems to me that questions need answering here, Mail ins are not good imo but reasonable in this current climate but when ballot harvesting is even on the table you have to question the whole thing.


Food for thought

2 key take aways i feel...1) looking at results of the progresssives in their races trump llikely would have beaten bernie 2) without covid trump beats biden.....the fact he nailed a plus with the hispanic votes ,woman votes and black votes was a strong coalition for the R's and likely was the drop with whte males that lost it for him in 2020. Not bad for a supposed racist and shows the media narrative failed just as i thought it would.


Return to “USA Elections”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests