Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

All things related to the 2020 Cheltenham festival
LoveWinners
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Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 pm

In this thread I will be posting up some numbers relating to past cheltenham races…I will be doing daily edits also.

Furthermore I will breakdown each race individually then I will be editing again the model predictions for all the races the evening before/morning of.


First I looked at common data (sorted by ROI @ bfsp) to see if any blanket angles are worth following? Then ill apply same criteria to races as individuals…these can be used as people see fit and are open to individuals own interpretation.

Note ROI on BFSP as of inception of markets not for total data sets..IE total numbers of race are recorded but the ROI is counted against markets where price was available and started to be recorded hence discrepancies although its only for highlighting purposes and not for betting purpose, use SP Only for betting purpose if using data...Trends breakdown will be sp based only though but more for field reduction/winner finding but wanted to add these first for blanket angles for review.

https://www.scribd.com/document/4506104 ... ern-Form-1
Last edited by LoveWinners on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:15 pm, edited 4 times in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:39 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 1:30 - Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/4506149 ... me-Novices


Trends/winner finding (Tight)
22/22 winners had had between 2 - 7 in previous 365 days (Jabbaar outside stat)
22/22 winners had lto run 16+days (all inside stat)
22/22 winners won 2miles + (Berkshire Royal outside stat)
20/22 6 yr olds or younger (Francin outside stat)
19/22 winners in top 6 in betting..
19/22 lto winners (Berkshire Royal, Heaven Help Us,Ecco,Elixir D'ainay,Hollow Sound,Shan Blue,Stolen Silver,Tiger Tap Tap,Captain Guinness,Edwardstone,Mario De Pail ouside stat)

Note
as things stand all top 6 in the betting are strong and looks like the market is shaped as expected.

Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..
Bets...Wins... Win%...P/L(SP)...Place%...ROI(SP)...P/L(BF)...ROI(BF)
36..... 7... ....19.44...31.5...... 33.33....87.5.......48.75.....135.41


2020 Q(s)
Asterion Forlonge

Ratings

130 100-Abacadabras, 99.7- Asterion Forlonge, 99.2-Fiddlerontheroof ,98 Shishkin

With only 2lb splitting the top 4 an ew bet on top rated looks the play on the model @11/2.
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:55 am, edited 6 times in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:40 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 2:10 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/4506196 ... hy-Novices


Trends (Fair - Weak)
21/21 won @2m1f+ (Precious Cargo outside this data)
21/22 were 12/1 or shorter
21/21 were 3rd or better Lto if completing ( Torpillo & Bapaume outside this data)
21/22 had no more than 5 runs that season (n/a)


Note
nothing doing here other looking at runners 12/1 or shorter close to the off as opposed to looking for one at a price maybe? prob be looking at both models for some inspiration ...


Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..

2020 Q(2)
Notebook
Maire Banrigh
Esprit Du Large


Ratings
100 -Global Citizen, 99.2-Esprit Du Large, 99 -Cash Back, 98.8 -Notebook.

nice an tight but the play has to a couple of small ew bets on top2 at 20/1 and 12/1
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:15 am, edited 5 times in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:40 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 2:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/4506269 ... icap-Chase


Trends (loose)
looking at trends here are too wide for my liking....a couple to note
LTO winners have 8/22 +18 LSP
20/22 were 6th or better LTO
All winners aged 6-11 (Pleasant Company outside)
10 -11st12lb (weak angle)
Market position 1-20 (Weak)
Uk Vs IRE the uk have dominated this race in recent years 19 Vs 2 (1 french trained)

Note
A wide range in the data although preference for UK trained runners unless Very strong fancy for a irish runner, LTO winners have done well and can be noted as a possible angle into the race.


Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..

2020 Q(6)
Activial
Who Dares Wins
The Conditional
Cepage
Mister Malarky
Cobra De Mai

Ratings
100 -Who Dares Wins, 99.4 -Vintage Clouds, 99 -Activial and Big River,98.2 -Burbank,Kildisart,Mister Malarky and Cepage.

ill back top rated and value play Activial 12/1 and 25/1 with 6 places but too 50% usual stake as only 4lb between 11 runners...high variance indeed
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:31 am, edited 6 times in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:41 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 3:30 - Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/4506306 ... ion-Hurdle



Trends (Fair - Tight)
22/22 finished in top 4 LTO (Sharjah,Not So Sleepy,Gumball, Fusil Raffles all outside this data)
21/22 finished 3rd or better LTO (additional to above add in Verdana Blue,Supasundae and Le Patriote) down to 12
22/22 had 7 or fewer runs in the 365 days prior, a stat against one of my antipost bets Darver Star :roll:
no real point on price other than not over 33/1 :lol: a big price wouldn't put me off though.


Note
Not great here where winner finding based on previous winners doesnt help all that much to nail a selection down or even give us a short list, ill be looking at models in both forms and combined to enter the market with....that being said ran filter of 3rd or better lto,7or less runs in 365,under 33/1 and obv 21/22 winners with LSP profit of +22 with a 13% ROI from average 7.6 runners per year.



Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..(3)

2020 Q(s)
Epatante
Cilaos Emery
Fusil Raffles


Ratings
100 -Epatante, 98.7 -Cilaos Emery, 98.4 -Silver Streak, 98.2 -Pentland Hills, 97.3 -Cornerstone Lad and Darver Star

having a antipost bet already on DS im just going to have a bet on top rated here
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:39 am, edited 6 times in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:41 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 4:10 - Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle) (Grade 1) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/450632367/Mares

Trends (N/A)

Notes/thoughts

whilst trends are strong they have no real use in 2020 other than taking 2 outsiders away, A fascinating contest with Benie Des Dieux looking for a change of luck after falling last year when would have won. Honeysuckle will be no pushover here after beating DS lto ,I think thats stronger form than others realise....interesting race nonetheless but one ill likely just look for the value once race is rated tomorrow.

Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..(3)
Benie Des Dieux
Honeysuckle
Roksana


Ratings
100 -Benie Des Dieux, 98.2 -Honeysuckle,94 -Roksana, 93 -Stormy Ireland

A no bet race for me
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:43 am, edited 5 times in total.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:41 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 4:50 - Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/450655661/Novices


Trends
15/15 were 20/1 or shorter
15/15 ran between 16-60 days (negative for likely plot job and fav Galvin also..Espoir De Guye,Beakstown, Earlofthecotswolds De Plotting Shed)
15/15 were 9yrs or younger (De Plotting Shed although eliminated already)
13/15 finished 3rd or better LTO (Paint The Dream,Highest Sun,Champagne Court,Lord Schnitzel,Mellow Ben,Jarveys Plate &
Torpillo.)

Note
The above look average from trends stand point but interesting to how the fav galvin goes as looks and sounds like a few months planning this one,ill be against it though and let the cards fall as they may?

Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..(4/5)

2020 Q(s)
Imperial Aura
Hold The Note
Champagne Mystery
Trainwreck

[b]Ratings

100 -Hold The Note, 99 -Trainwreck, 98.7 -Imperial Aura, 98.3 Espoir De Guye

[u][i] not overly confident here but likely just make a book of top 4 as looks impossible to be confident on the numbers, may make it a 2 pt book if ratings perform and im ahead? if not i certainly wouldn't be trying to get out in this race
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:55 am, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:42 pm

2020-03-10 Cheltenham 5:30 - National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class1)

https://www.scribd.com/document/4506580 ... llenge-Cup


Trends (weak)
20/22 finished 5th or better LTO (Ravenhill,Smoking Gun,Some Can Dance,Anteros,Clondaw Cian ..outside this data point)

Note
with no real angles here due to winners being rated 115-152, prices from 9/4 - 40/1, age 6-11 etc etc ....This race looks like A direct split and recently the sp of winners has more than halved 2009-2019 average sp of winner was 8.7/1 whereas 1997 - 2008 was 19.3/1. Ravenshill was talked up a bit by trainer so maybe that trend gets broken in 2020? real tough race but ill consider what other methods point too?

Note
Model Field reduction (Profitable group) by 10 yr profile..(4)


2020 Q(s)
Carefully Selected
Newtide
Redzor
Springfield Fox


Ratings

100 -Newtide , 99 -Carefully Selected, 98.2 -Springfield Fox 98 -Ravenhill and Lord Du Mesnil.

ill havee a decent ew bet on top rated and cover with 2nd top at 2s+
Last edited by LoveWinners on Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:00 am, edited 8 times in total.

philipg
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby philipg » Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:22 pm

Just seen Martins update on ground conditions. If G/s not Soft Shiskin would be a confident selection on the Tuesday. Marie Banrigh is looking good on this type of ground. I will need to look at all the ratings again. Yesterday the weather forecast I was looking at was forecasting rain on the Monday and Tuesday....
Last edited by philipg on Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.

philipg
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby philipg » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:47 pm

[quote="philipg"]Really looking forward to Cheltenham and this year we are all off to Spain so will be watching from a bar hopefully with some sunshine.
13.30 Using Patternform 3 months filtering. So decent recent form, then filter 6 months, 13 months. Then Filter Sft/SftHy/Hy. Class. Distance 1f either side. This will be the method for each race. To be a qualifier the horse must have run well within the 6 months. Some horses will be rated higher than below but did not come through the elimination process. Lets see if it can snag any winners.

Tuesday.
For the 1.30 Shiskin 84. Fiddlerontheroof 83.
14.10 Espirit Du Large 90 Marie Banrigh 89
14.50 Vintage Clouds 90.
15.30 Epatante 89 Verdana blue 81 Outsider with a squeak, 90+ on older form.
16.10 Benie Des Dieux 91
16.50 Imperial Aura 72 Not That Fuisse 65. Caution required in this race others higher rated but failed the elimination processes. Maybe avoid.
17.30 Lord Du Mesnil 86

Day 1 must keep the powder dry this is a marathon not a sprint, so caution required.
Vintage Clouds is certainly worth 1pt win 4pts place on a going day he can run a cracker at a great price.
Lord Du Mesnil is certainly worth 1pt win 4pts place.
Add 1pt each way double Vintage Clouds and Lord Du Mesnil. 12pts.. wagered. I will try and do Weds Thurs and Friday. Good luck.

These races will need to be looked @ again as Non runners may be applicable here

Weds Day 2

13.30 Thyme Hill 83.
14.10 Faugheen 92 Copperhead 91
14.50 Champagne Well 83 Garo De Juilley 82 Nordano 77. As you can clearly see this race is a lottery.
15.30 Min 100 Altior 98 Defi Du Seuil 94
16.10 Urgent De Gregaine 87 Easyland 77 (Tiger Roll is 98) He failed on the 6 month form rule, however this horse has been specifically trained with this race in mind so this brilliantly shows the flaws of sticking to a rigid rule set.
16.50 Cerebus 70 Repito 68
17.30 Panic Attack 74 Israel Champ 71

Thyme Hill looks like he may run in the Albert Bartlett so again I may have to re adjust this race nearer the off. Min looks a great bet for the Champion Chase, but this looks more likely to run in the Ryan Air, that is a shame, but I am now looking forward to rating that race up. Tiger Roll does not qualify on the 6 month ruling and ratings, but clearly he is the horse to beat, but just maybe a small place bet on Urgent De Gregaine may pay something with a bit of luck in running. We need to wait closer to the time and I will update these above.

These races will need to be looked @ again as Non runners may be applicable here


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