Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

All things related to the 2020 Cheltenham festival
martinkil
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby martinkil » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:57 am

Sorry about the going mistype Philip - Just noticed I put- good with GS in places - should have been - soft with GS in places !!!

blandy66
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Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:01 pm

Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby blandy66 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:13 am

Trying something different for the first day ,will use other methods but trying this angle as it comes out.
Simply this will use the last 3 festivals to try see if there is a conncection between the winners of each race!

Supreme
winners had 2 mile/nvhg 1,2&3/24k+/11st7 +/jan&Feb/13months
2017 Laibek only quilifier
2018 6 horses left .Summerville boy won and was top on 3 headings and only one with 100win and place
2019 4 left winner Klassical dream was one of 4 ..3 with 100% win/place
2020 2 horses left Fiddlerontheroof and Asterion ,Asterion top on 3 both 100%

Arkle
2m to 2m4f/11zst 5+/11+ runners/Feb &March/13 months
2017 2 left Altior (winner) and Charbel,Altior top on 3 100%
2018 3 left Petit Mouch (3rd)top on 4 100%,Footpad (1st)0%,Brain power (2nd)
2019 Duc des Guen (1st) top on ran to 100%..2nd and third also part of 4 remaining
2020 2 left Al Dancer 50% top on 4 and Espirit du large !00%

rest of card
Ultima 2020 2 left Cogry top on 4 0/100% and Elwood 0/100%

Champion hurdle 2020 3 left Ciloas Emery top on all 100% ,Call me lord,Darasso

Mares 2020 Bennie top on 3 60/60%

Brothers 2020 7 left Imperial Aura top on 3 only 100%

National Hunt 2020 1 left Redzor 0%

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:04 am

Good luck gents, just done ratings and my plan to use them...lest get day1 out on the was with as little pain as possible :lol:


Nice to see forum buzzing :D

philipg
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby philipg » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:59 am

LOVE WINNERS that is a quality write up there. Thanks very much for the insights and angles...Good luck. Great work. 8-)

martinkil
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby martinkil » Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:47 pm

A good start for Philip with - Shiskin.

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:28 pm

So day1 was a just ok day but cant expect too much on that ground and judging by times its nearing heavy...highlight had to be the champion hurdle for viewers although the mares race was most fascinating and with ruby and willie bemoaning robbie powers ride ,in particular ruby saying it was bad 'race riding' i pondered it for a few minutes and came to the conclusion of tough shite :lol: allowing room for another horse whether its stablemate or not? shouldn't be part of a plan at a single point in time if achieving best placing possible for a horse individually ... it is then fair game for all so take it on the chin and keep quiet IMO.


Ruby says never let a horse up your inside yet if Benie Des Dieux was actually where Honeysuckle was then he wouldn't have said anything unless asked in which no doubt his reply would be its just... 'race riding' :roll:


i think day 2 will be much like day1 with the ground being the great equalizer but maybe 1 flashy winner can pop up? ill be looking forward to day3/4 after a dry spell...


Day2 ratings and bets

1:30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
100 -Envoi Allen, 96.8 -Easywork, 96.4 -Sporting John, 94 -The Big Breakaway

if top rated was odds against i would have lumped on due to lb clear of not just second top but 6lb performance projection over 4th looks very notable....but no bet for me here as odds on is not my cup of tea in such a race

2:10 - RSA Insurance Novices' Chase
100 -Champ, 99.2 -Copperhead ,99.1 -Minella Indo, 98.8 Battleoverdoyen,Slate House and Allaho

no bet here although champs would have to be 10lb better than i feel he will be on this ground over the CD , the model says otherwise ...im wondering how id feel on gs? i think around 3/1 but in these conditions 5/1...good thing i dont have to bet :D

2:50 - Coral Cup
100 -Dame De Compagnie, 98.8 -Alfa Mix, 98.6 -Protektorat, 98.3 Eglantine Du Seuil &Franco De Port.

i played clear top for such a race ew with 1/4 5places @7/1 missed the 10/1...went to place at 8/1....price changed :roll: despite being ahead of the crowd managed to miss better prices and couldn't get what i wanted on :oops: .

3:30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
100 -Defi Du Seuil, 99.4 -Chacun Pour Soi, 97.3 -Dynamite Dollars, 97 -Sceau Royal & Sceau Royal , 89 Bun Doran -

A Watching race for me, and hopefully this is a corker :D


4:10 - Glenfarclas Chase
100 -Tiger Roll, 96.4 -Easysland, 94 -Might Bite,Urgent De Gregaine &Yanworth

the largest separation between top and 2nd so far in 2020 if i can , got just £30 on at evens maxed out :roll: (its like they were only concerned with day1 and run out of computer power to lay a bet for the following day ffs) but ill be try again tomorrow but if i cant ill just keep to my whopping £30 and enjoy the spectacle with no stress :D


4:50 - Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
100 - Mick Pastor, 98.3 -Palladium, 97.8 -Blacko, 97.5 -Aramax, 97.4Saint D'oroux

this deosnt have a great shape to it but little ew on top rated @ 8/1 seemed just about fine to me.


100 -Appreciate It, 98.7 -Israel Champ, 98.6 -The Glancing Queen, 98.3 -Panic Attack,

[u] ive played v small ew on 2nd top for value @20/1 on what will be a low outlay day for me....always tomorrow :D [u]


Edit at 2pm ....its The Glancing Queen im on who is 3rd rated not 2nd rated for clarity..

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:16 am

1:30 - Marsh Novices' Chase
100 -Itchy Feet, 98.2 -Faugheen, 98 -Midnight Shadow, 97.2 -Mister Fisher

Well i'm not sure why fav Samcro doesnt make top4 here? not sure i'd agree and would definitely have it top 3 but with top rated enough clear to have a bet at 9/2 in this but didn't be get carried away stakes wise


2:10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
100 -Sire Du Berlais, 99.3 -The Storyteller, 99.2 -Welsh Saint, 98.7 -Relegate, 98.6 -Skandiburg, 98.5 -Rapper & Third Wind.


I Took the ratings on board but there is a blanket over top 11 and (-0.8)Welsh Saint was where i was happy to play her, the eyecatching finish on new years day had me looking forward to this horse last time and duly laded for me. This is very tight but 6/1 7 places for this improving 6 yr old rates a knocking EW bet here...im keen on this.

2:50 - Ryanair Chase
100 -Min, 99.3 -A Plus Tard, 99.2 -Frodon, 98.2 -Riders Onthe Storm.

The market seems right to me but model disagrees, The play on the model converted price is frodon @5/1 so had a tiny value bet here,around 40% usual stake...This looks a cracker.

3:30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
100 - Paisley Park, 97.8 -Summerville Boy, 97.4 -Penhill, 97 -Emitom

No surprise whos at the top of the pile here, I am of the mind that the cleeve hurdle finish could be repeated so straight fc and place bet on 2nd rated is my play here....wouldnt surprise if Emitom runs a big one here for a yard who won this with a 6yr old (Cole Harden) back in 2015

4:10 - Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase
100 -Simply The Betts, 99.2 -Ben Dundee , 99.1 Siruh Du Lac, 98.7 -Deyrann de Carjac, 98.5 -Springtown Lake, 98.4 -Royal Village,Not Another Muddle &Charmant

Could it be looking a gift horse in the mouth? top rated and super strong in the market Simply The Betts could be good thing but @ 11/4-7/2 is too short for my liking and Ben Dundee @12/1 EW will do for me 5 places 1/4 odds

4:50 - Daylesford Mares' Novices' Hurdle
100 -Minella Melody, 98.7 -Floressa, 98 -Colreevy, 97.7 Concertista.

No Thanks :lol:

5:30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir
100 -Le Breuil, 98.8 -Deise Aba, 98.5 -Champagne Platinum, 97.9 Plan Of Attack.

This Champagne Platinum pokes the eye out in this but coming out of that grade1 , cheekpieces on and o'connor booked ...I could be kicking myself after this as im on big /ew on Le Breuil 4places 1/4 he just has that course form , top jock and just looks solid to me

LoveWinners
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:01 am

Before we move into the final day of the festival ratings and my bets just a couple of things i wanted to quickly mention first.

1) Its been great to see people posting again this festival and its been a pleasure to have been a part of it...i truly hope every member wins a bundle tomorrow :D

2) A quick note about the model, created by past and current patternform ratings only , I simply let it learn from previous results then predict future winners from current numbers. I have broken down the numbers to see hows its done overall? I know its in profit heading into day4 but profit isn't the only indicator i would ever use ....

Basics
7 wins from 21 (33% strike rate) :D
Lsp +12.87 (61% ROI)
BFsp +18.44 (88% ROI)

Dig
TR =347 (tot horses analysed )
AFS = 16.5 (Average field size)
ARWR = 3.62 - (Average rank of race winner)
AWR% =21.93% (Average winner was found in top 22% of runners)
AFPP = 4.5 (Average finish position of projected winner //read as top rated) Note that if F/PU/R then in 17 runner field it would receive a 17th on finishing position.

(This really has little to do with me as based on patternform figures so really its a patternform model)


Now clearly running hot over first 3 days as not possible for anyone to have such figures long term, especially as 3 odds on losers in that, The good thing is no matter what now worst case would be +5.87 isp (21%) and +11.44 bfsp (41%) ....ill create a database for royal ascot run the tests and post up in the summer and see what happens...that is if we haven't all dropped down dead by then :twisted:

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle
100 -Solo, 99.3 -Goshen, 98.9 -A Wave Of The Sea, 98.5 -Allmankind.

Not a race ill be going mad on but ive bet top rated small

2:10 - Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle
100 -Aramon, 99.5 -Mohaayed, 99.3 -Oakley, 98.9 -Adjali & Moon Over Germany, 98.6 Saint Roi

The books seem to be cautios with fav Saint Roi and its no surprise really as J.P an Barry have given them a hiding this week :lol: but i do like top rated Aramon here,my reserve is lack of experience in such race but the run last time has worked out so well,HONEYSUCKLE won the mares DARVER STAR 3rd in champion and was ahead of SHARJAH who was 2nd in the champion. Improving past A mark of 149 seems more than achievable to me so a ew bet @8/1 seemed fine to me,

2:50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
100 -Thyme Hill, 99.3-Ramses De Teillee, 98.9 -Sempo, 98.7 -Harry Senior, 98.6 -Latest Exhibition

Ive ignored the ratings somewhat in that i eliminated all horses under 25/1 here as this race has a history of throwing up big priced winners,in the last 10yrs only 3 were single figure prices of the others - 11/1,14/1,16/1 tree were 33/1 and last yr 50/1. So of those at 33/1+ they were all btn lto, so only Redford Road and House Island so backed put a score ew at 33/1 and 7.5 EW at 100/1 :lol: im trying to convince myself that the postives are the former is unbeaten at CD and gavin sheehan should be high in confidence after thursdays ride :idea: as we can see by stake im super confident :lol:


3:30 - Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
100 -Santini, 99.6 -Delta Work, 99.4 Al Boum Photo, 98.7Clan Des Obeaux

Top rated will be carrying my money here.



4:10 - St. James's Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase
100 -Shantou Flyer, 99.8 -Minella Rocco, 99.7 -Hazel Hill, 99.1 Caid Du Berlais

No Thanks :lol:

4:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
100 -Jan Maat ,99.7-Chosen Mate, 99.3 -Greaneteen, 99 -Lisp98, 98.9-Croco Bay

i had a nibbble on top rated ew @20/1 but this Greaneteen is my biggest investment in 2020

5:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
100 -Front View, 99.3 -Assemble, 99.1 Column Of Fire, 98.9 Umbrigado

ive not bet in this as waiting to see how others get on? ill play up winnings but wont put myself in compounding agony :lol: it will be top and 4th rated if i make it? i should mention.

philipg
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Re: Cheltenham 2020 Trends ,Angles and Ratings

Postby philipg » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:33 am

I have also really enjoyed looking and being part of the community here. Brilliant. Good luck above, you deserve some good rewards for your efforts I have enjoyed your posts. Thank you. We can look forward to the Aintree meeting and then smashing the flat. I am happy to meet up on here on Saturdays and give my thoughts if yourself and others are willing if I have the time and other people are willing. Many minds and thoughts are a very potent weapon. Good luck again. It is a tough tight day today.


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