PPE scandal

All things coronavirus and how it's effecting racing and any more general posts relating to the virus.
GMBing
Posts: 97
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:59 am

PPE scandal

Postby GMBing » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:24 pm

Watching an hour of news tonight I could barely believe my ears.
In response to the ongoing shortage of PPE causing unnecessary deaths to healthcare professionals the government has hatched a new plan.
They have issued a new set of guidelines on what PPE should be used in what circumstances and proudly stood at the daily 5pm conservative party broadcast and stated that provided that PPE was only used in the right circumstances by the right people then there is enough to go round.
In affect they have taken an itinerary of what they have and written a set of guidelines to match what's available.
I really hope the wider public are not buying this PR bull.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby martinkil » Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:17 am

Totally unacceptable - it should be moving the other way with supermarket till operatives in PPE!!

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:42 am

Testing has been ramping up over the last 3 weeks. The 3-day rolling average of people being tested has gone from 5,532 on 21-Mar, to 7,917 on 28-Mar, to 10,070 on 4-Apr, up to 12,297 on 11-Apr. The working theory was that as the number of people being tested increased the percentage of positive tests would decrease as more “clear” people were tested. This would though depend on the rate of increase of testing, as against the rate of increase of transmission within that tested population. It's still mainly those being admitted to hospital and those looking after them or self isolating having been caring for them who are being tested.

So what do the number tell us? On those 4 dates (21-Mar, 28-Mar, 4-Apr, and 11-Apr) the rolling 3-day average of the percentage of positive test returned has been – 14.4%, 31.8%, 41.4% and 49.5%.

What does that tell us about the spread of the virus, remembering that only a very selective group of people are being tested. We are now testing over twice as many people than we were 3 weeks ago but the number of people testing positive has more than tripled.

What would be an interesting breakdown would be the positive testing rate between patients and carers. Has the positive testing rate between the two groups increases in parallel or has it increased mainly amongst the carers, and if so that would be a heavy indictment of the lack of PPE available to them.

GMBing
Posts: 97
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:59 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby GMBing » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:56 pm

I find it very hard to find a simple bar graph showing tests conducted, people tested and positive results. It does seem it takes about 15000 tests to test about 10000 people. So clearly first time accuracy is missing in a lot of tests

I also find it much lower than I would have guessed that about half of those tested after hospital admission for what most be quite serious health concerns and suspected of coronavirus actually prove negative

I did see one set of figures that seem to suggest that about one third of healthcare professionals tested so far have the virus albeit in mild form.

But as I say finding reliable honest data is not something our government is likely to want to be freely available at this time.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:43 pm

They published some on the daily announcement page yesterday - https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... the-public

As of 9am on 11 April, 334,974 tests have concluded, with 18,091 tests carried out on 10 April.
269,598 people have been tested, of whom 78,991 tested positive.
As of 5pm on 10 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 9,875 have died.

---------- Tests ---- People tested ---- Positive ---- Deaths
Daily --- 18,091 ------- 12,993 ------- 5,234 ----- 917
Total --- 334,974 ------ 269,598 ----- 78,991 ----- 9,875

Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons. The figure for the number of tests excludes data from Northern Ireland. Testing data reflects the latest reported data although the timing of reporting cycles differs between labs.
The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for positive cases is 1 lower than the daily increase figure. This is due to Wales double counting a case from the previous day. The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for number of cases is 47 lower than the daily increase figures. This is due to PHE correcting some errors in their historical data.
Incorporating figures on swab testing for critical key workers
From 10 April, figures for positive tests include positive case results from swab testing for key workers and their households (pillar 2). Data on positive case results from swab testing for key workers and their households between 25 March and 9 April is available below.
Date
Positive
Wed 25 March - 0
Thurs 26 March - 0
Fri 27 March - 5
Sat 28 March - 10
Sun 29 March - 69
Mon 30 March - 46
Tues 31 March - 241
Wed 1 April - 243
Thurs 2 April - 278
Fri 3 April - 222
Sat 4 April - 265
Sun 5 April - 296
Mon 6 April - 341
Tues 7 April - 254
Wed 8 April - 374
Thurs 9 April - 331


Breakdown of testing by 2 of the testing strategy ‘pillars’
Daily
-------------- Pillar 1 - Pillar 2 - Total
People tested- 10,794 - 1,845 - 12,639
Tests ----------- 15,892 - 1,845 - 17,737
Positive --------- 4,624 - 610 - 5,234


Cumulative
---------------- Pillar 1 - Pillar 2 - Total
People tested - 255,780 - 11,769 - 267,549
Tests ---------- 321,156 - 11,769 - 332,925
Positive ------- 74,895 - 4,096 - 78,991

Pillar 1: swab testing in PHE labs and NHS hospitals for those with a medical need and the most critical workers and their families
Pillar 2: swab testing for key workers and their households
See the government’s national testing strategy for more information

GMBing
Posts: 97
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:59 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby GMBing » Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:50 pm

I may be reading these figures wrong but it seems to suggest about one third of healthcare professionals that have been tested have proved positive.

The test can only detect current infection so picking a figure completely out of the sky of another one third as having had it and recovered that would be a game changing stat.

Clearly that group is at far higher risk from exposure but maybe 40 - 50% of society could have or have had this virus.

All conjecture as our testing is woeful but NHS staff testing is showing a huge positive test ratio.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:24 am

It's funny how the same set of data can be read in two very different ways.
The Pillar 2: swab testing for key workers and their households – are the ones running at a third positive. Since these include the families of workers I've presumed these are workers showing symptoms who are self isolating with their family members who themselves may be showing symptoms. This group will have been exposed to a much heavier virus load then the general population, but also will have shown signs of picking up the infection. Under 15 thousand have been tested – 23 per constituency, although that won't be evenly spread, but only those showing signs of the virus who might be released back to work will be being tested at the moment.

The Pillar 1: swab testing in PHE labs and NHS hospitals for those with a medical need and the most critical workers and their families – is a bit less at under 30%. Again these are the most likely group of people to test positive for the virus.

Piller1 is testing much higher at the moment – the last two days of 20k people tested 9k were positive 44%, the poller 2 numbers over the same two days were 4.4k people tested 1.4k were positive 32%.

The total number tested at 280K is 0.4% of the population, and a very selective sample of a population most exposed to the virus. I would expect the rest of society who have been social distancing for the last 3 weeks to have a significantly lowed instance of infection by the covid-19 virus. The Austrian study put the current infection rate at between 0.12% and 0.76% (0.33%).

But this is all speculation until we have an anti-body test to show who has already had the virus.

GMBing
Posts: 97
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:59 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby GMBing » Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:34 am

Yes I guess you are right it is amazing how you can make data support what you want to see.
On the subject of antibody tests what is happening. A week ago there was 3.5 million in transit and Amazon and Boots were ready to be partners in mass testing of the population, now silence on the entire subject.
And as a side note It's not a job anyone would want in this crisis but is it just me or has that Health secretary Matt Hancock just promised to much without being able to deliver. Lied to much while the facts were bare for everyone to see and caused to much hurt and offence to the people now being recognised as the true hero's of our society.
Boris should come out of sick leave for just two minutes and sack the man.

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: PPE scandal

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:30 pm

3.5 million duds on which we'll be lucky to get a refund!! - and the option on another 17 million thankfully not exercised.

There are some promising ones out there, so it's only a matter of time.

At least with the current Health secretary Matt Hancock we know how useless he is, with this shower, god knows how really really awful the next one would be!!


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