Herd Immunity

All things coronavirus and how it's effecting racing and any more general posts relating to the virus.
martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Herd Immunity

Postby martinkil » Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:17 am

I've watched the first 20 minutes of your link, and he really has a strange criticism of the Imperial College report, which as I've pointed out elsewhere gave a range of expected outcomes (deaths) depending on COVID-19's transmission rate and the actions taken and when they were taken which gave death tolls between 550,000 and 5,600.

He actually has the chart at 14:50.

He seems to be complaining when the study's authors point out that since actions X Y and Z were taken we now have under nnk deaths rather than 550,000 (do nothing scenario)

What was he expecting them to say?

Chutny
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: Herd Immunity

Postby Chutny » Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:31 am

We are still operating wrecking the economy on a module that was based on wide eyed lunacy, and this guy as form in this department ask the farmers who had their livelihoods ripped from them over similar modules, we need to end this madness the scientific evidence is just not there to cause pandemonium, Sweden are a sensible outlier in this, proceed with caution but don't screw your economy for something that will only match the flu in deaths, as anyone got the influenza death's for 2019-20 yet which always spike this time of year, anyone got evidence that the lockdown as worked, and below is more evidence it's not working.

https://youtu.be/rBLXdKB-PjI

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Herd Immunity

Postby martinkil » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:37 am

I've already answered your “Influenza and Pneumonia” question - but here are the latest ONS numbers.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020

“Influenza and Pneumonia” deaths for 2019/2020 are running very close to the 5-year average. COVID-19 going through the roof.

As for Tucker Carlson report and the clip he showed - Doctor Dan Erickson (who just happens to owns two clinics):

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”


and

The doctors should never have assumed that the patients they tested — who came for walk-in COVID-19 tests or who sought urgent care for symptoms they experienced in the middle of a pandemic — are representative of the general population, said Dr. Carl Bergstrom, a University of Washington biologist who specializes in infectious disease modeling. He likened their extrapolations to “estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court.” And most credible studies of COVID-19 death rates in reality are far higher than the ones the doctors presented.

Chutny
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: Herd Immunity

Postby Chutny » Mon May 04, 2020 5:30 pm

The lockdown was a complete failure, the silver spoon politician's have run our NHS into the ground, this lockdown was to protect the Tory party who have been in power over 10 years not the NHS.
Cut cut cut austerity ETC, these were political choices, lack of preparation, IE PPE ventilators and bed capacity at its lowest ever, the death rate on the chart is appalling and sad, more interested in finding vaccines that never work or fail, stop this nonsense start getting your heads together and use common sense, get people back to work and do your job which we pay you for. Below are the 2 doctors that were pulled from YouTube for common sense.

https://youtu.be/3f0VRtY9oTs

martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Herd Immunity

Postby martinkil » Tue May 05, 2020 9:58 am

I've already covered these two doctors in the preceding post - here are some further thoughts on their study

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/20 ... e-flu.html

Firstly, they wrongly assumed the infection rate of people showing up for tests would be the same as the general population across the entire state of 40 million people. This was backed up by Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington, who tweeted in a thread debunking the video's claims.

"During a pandemic, the people who come into an urgent care clinic are not a random sample of the population, unfortunately the misleading claims of those two doctors in Bakersfield keep making the rounds, so I want to very briefly address the problem with what they are saying.

"A large fraction of them are coming in precisely because they suspect that they have the disease. This generates sampling bias. Estimating that fraction infected from patients at an urgent care facility is a bit like estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court."

The doctors also compared the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 - which has only just arrived on the scene and is still spreading like wildfire in the US - with annual total deaths caused by influenza.

Dr Bergstrom also pointed out that in New York, 0.14 percent of the entire population have been killed by the disease already - far more than the 0.03 percent mortality rate Drs Erickson and Massihi claimed.

"They've used absurd methodology to arrive at an implausible number."

"The physician in the video is comparing two months of COVID-19 data, which again at this point is incomplete. It is not scientifically valid to make a comparison to the completed six-month flu season," said ACEP and AAEM.



https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/28/cue-the-debunking-two-bakersfield-doctors-go-viral-with-dubious-covid-test-conclusions/


“As struggling business owners, their economic frustration is understandable. But it can’t be mistaken for science. People trust doctors,” Michigan emergency room doctor Rob Davidson wrote on Twitter. “When they tell Fox viewers to ignore recommendations from real experts, many will believe them…The impact of rejecting science-proven recommendations in exchange for these erroneous ideas would overwhelm health systems and cost lives. While re-opening the economy might be good for their Urgent Care Centers (sic), it would kill medical personnel on the actual front lines.”


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