Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:31 am

Looking to pull out some profit on the higher grade races leading upto xmas , shall share my thoughts on such races and staking (£10-£100 ) even if anti post wagered.

18/11/2017
cheltenham

BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (13:50)

Minella Rocco £10 each Way 9/2 with Bet 365 Never a horse i would want to steam into first time out regardless off competition so the run last time was nowhere near as bad as i thought it would be, I would be more inclined to lump on this horse in the spring but i do feel the likely decent ground and that return run out of the way then this is a risk i will be prepared to take as really will nit have to be at best to finish in the top 3 and could easily take this event if fully on song.


BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (14:25)

Already took 6/1 about tully east with william hill for £15 each Way , i try to forget about wagered already placed as serevs zero purpose to look again once money is down but need to mention it here for clarity

Whilst i am fine with my initial position , it did come form a system. Looking at the race in detail i do feel there is a decent value wager here in Ballyalton £10 Each Way 11/1 paying 5 places with paddy power This horse doesnt have the sexiest profile for this race but i do feel if getting act together this horse could be well enough in to make a big impact in a tough race. Whilst 10yr old this horse has low mileage and already made the trip to the track 5 times winning twice and a stand out 2nd in the Neptune behind Faugheen the machine. this horse has had its problems but that is factored in the price and i do feel we will see at least one mistake from this horse and hope its at an early stage and wakes in up as can lose concentration at times.

Kk Lexion £30 Each Way 6/1 with william hill The favorite was good last time but this will be overbet and i want to try to get it beat. KK is a real good horse when on song and should not be overlooked from this mark, The key here in my mind is the switch to Adrian Heskin. The jockey has ridden the horse four times winning twice and the largest losing margin of the losses was 4.5L . This likely will be run at a steady pace and this could play into this horses hands stepping upto this trip for the first time, Expecting a nice waiting ride and should see out this runs strong enough.



Lingfield

Betway Churchill Stakes (14:45)

Boynton £60 win 5/2 William Hill Whilst this horse looks a little disappointing overall i do feel there has been excuses each of the last two starts when beaten behind likely second favourite Victory bound there were genuine excuses and last time it could be argued was more frustrating but i feel this race will really show if this horse is on its way back or should be shelved? I hope this likely stronger pace will allow WB to settle the horse and a fair-strong tempo will help this horse out to be able to sustain a run as its not innate ability that gets this horse beaten but mental attitude. There is also the added bonus that once the horse settles WB will have options to either just sit off or gradually work up and take them along from half way although ideally it would be the first scenario.



19/11/2017

Ivanovich Gorbatov £15 Each Way @16/1 AP This is a system bet i needed to include , i will likely have a look at this races this evening at some point without trying to notice if that bet is a return or not , im hoping it has been pulled as its not a horse i would like to
try to analyse as it will make a fool out of the best of us :lol:

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:49 am

Well it could be a nut roast after that display , The ground went against us but Boynton has to be shelved now.


19/11/2017

Velcourt Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (115)

Wylde Magic £50 Each Way 15/2 with paddy power paying 5 places looks like the market is moving in for this horse witch is a good thing as i think its banker to hit the frame here, I just do not see a downside for this horse and fully expect to give its running.

Greatwood Handicap (300)

The New One £40 Each Way 10/1 with paddy power paying five places and old Guard £25 EW @ 14/1 with paddy power This is an interesting race and i have taken the view i would like to use the more exposed runners against the less exposed runners when investing on these place terms. These two have the best form in the book in these conditions but shall need a few of the handicap blots to under perform. Jenkins is undoubtedly the most interesting off current mark as if it really was a serious supreme consideration then its thrown in, William H bonney is underbet under the excellent Mitch bastyan and does handle these conditions but surprising its so weak in the market.

Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle (330)

Bedrock £15 ew 10/1 paddy power

Two very interesting runners at the top of the market but this horse is experienced enough to have a pop at these with only needing one to underperform , Its a pure value play on achievement alone and a risk im happy to take.

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:02 pm

19/11/2017 - Punchestown

Irish Daily Mirror Handicap Hurdle (1230)

oscars Den £30 win paddy power 3/1

Could be on the improve again at the age of 9 and have too much in hand for the Walsh team, Still lightly raced and there was a lot to like about getting it done last time.



Florida Pearl Novice Chase (140)

Shattered Love £30 win 4/1 paddy power The talking horse presenting Percy is worth taking on at these cramped odds and i prefer shattered love over jury duty but not by a large margin.

tafflizgreg
Posts: 137
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby tafflizgreg » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:47 pm

great call on Greatwood Handicap cheers :D

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:52 pm

Well Tafflizgreg it was the only positive and not much went my way at all but we plod along.

25/11/17

Haydock
Newton Novices' Hurdle (12:10)


Dynamite Dollars £70 win paddy power 11/10 and Waterlord £10 EW 25/1 paddy power The horse to beat here on form is Dynamite Dollars and wouldnt be surprised if this goes off odds on. Waterlord is very interesting for Donald McCain , This horse has a massive break to overcome but the price seems just too big to me. The horse is the only one who has shown enough to win this race on ratings so if ready could make these odd look silly.

Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (1:50)

Chti Balko £20 Ew 10/1 paddy power a very tight looking handicap and im happy to take a shot at a decent price for don McCains runner here. The reappearance runs was one that look needed and only just failed to give lumps of weight to a horse i have a lot of time for (PK) who would have had a better chance than the selection on that ground on those terms, I marked that performance up and now with this longer trip on this ground i feel this should be a 11/2 shot so 10/1 is value in my eyes.


Betfair Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2:25)

Champers On Ice £40 EW 13/2 paddy power This will be a right old slog should the meeting get as far as this race (weather bad at the moment) this was a decent hurdler and is a step ahead in my mind this looks a good bet here.


(3:00)


Cue Card £80 Win 2/1 William Hill This is double the price the horse should be on form and whilst much has been written about the JC i feel its the best thing and im happy to bet this.


Ascot

Shawbrook Handicap Chase (3:15)

SIRE DE GRUGY £70 win 7/2 William Hill likeable return to action and this old favourite looks to be sitting on a big performance to go back to back in this race.

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:09 pm

Newbury
Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (1:20)
Bouvreuil £75 Win 6/1 Ladbrokes This serial loser is mightily Frustrating because the horse has a ton of ability. This is a weakest race for a while and it would be disappointing if this horse doesn't threaten at the very least. Harry rides this course well and the declining mark is their to be exploited.

Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (1:50) and Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (2:20)
Air Horse One £100 Win 7/2 b365 and High Bridge £100 3/1 b365 and £30 ew double the pair

Two exciting types come out of a race that will stand the test of time. I have that race rated highly and i expect these two to uphold the form lines tomorrow.

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (3:00)
Braqueur D'Or £30 Ew @40/1 betfair paying 6 places and American £40 win @7/1 b365 American is a Horse on the up but i do have some reservations about the tempo of this race just catching him out, If it doesnt i think it will win this race. Braqueur D'Or is improving and im surprised its so big with these terms, gets in off a feather weight and each time watching back the run at ascot i feel more and more confident this horse will finish in the top 6.

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:21 pm

Fairyhouse

Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle (2:00)

She's A Star £15 Ew 20/1 Paddy Power This is a tough enough race but last years winning combination have an interesting runner this year. The 5 yr old has only one handicap hurdle run under his belt and that was a fine effort behind top othe ra and yaha fizz and i feel that doesnt even shown this horses top side and the positive Jockey switch (just like last year) just tilts this in favour of a bet for me.

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:03 am

Aintree
Becher Handicap Chase (13:30)

Highland Lodge £40 Ew 9/1 betfair paying 5 places. Should be well suited to this race and is an ideal type on paper, This is his course and the 2015 winner and 2016 runner up will likely been primed for this race as he has been previously.

Grand Sefton Handicap (15:10)

Sametegal £50 Ew 5/1 Paddy Power. This horse has looked very smart and is sure footed and an ideal type his trainer excels with, I think there is plenty to work with and whilst i respect a number of these incl gas line boy who looks a winner without a penalty and imjoeking has a fine record in the mud i really am keen on sametegal in this race.



Sandown


randoxhealth.com Henry VIII Novices' Chase (13:30 )

Finians Oscar £80 win 2/1 Ladbrokes Brain Power is such an eye catching horse and is the type to build a strong following due to his exuberance but i feel he could come unstuck against the like of Sceau Royal and my fancy Finians Oscar who are both seriously professional racehorses I think Finians Oscar should be favourite so i am happy to play at 2/1 although i was tempted by Sceau at the odds also.

Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (14:20)

Jenkins £50 Win 7/1 Paddy Power. I am happy to overlook the run in the greatwood and i was worried about the horse in that race, I feel this will be much more to his liking and we will see a completely different horse in this race. I also gave a mention WHB in that race as i felt the horse would be suited by that race and indeed was but i just feel the tempo of this race will see jenkins live upto his lofty reputation and collect there are dangers and rightly so for a competitive Saturday live race and the irish trained crossed my mind could be the one who delivers, this horse has form lines tied into the race covered last sunday and should be very competitive should jenkins fail to give his running again.



Betfair London National Handicap Chase (15:30)

Southfield Theatre £40 EW 12/1 Paddy Power . Has a good record at the course (3-1-3-4) and the stable continue to fire, this jockey is decent for the claim and seems to have been over looked at a double figure price. The horse ran a blinder behind his stablemate who has since franked that form and he has been dropped 2lb which seems a brave move from the handicapper as it was a solid run and was value for more than the bare form.

LoveWinners
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:49 pm

An Early start to the weekend with some good racing on friday at cheltenham and im rowing in.

British Stallion Studs EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (12:10)

Summerville Boy £80 Win 7/4@ Paddy Power. This horse continues to improve and nearly caused a shock behind the well touted slate house here last time on just second jump start and any improvement will see this horse infront at the line, I do think its interesting the tizzards oppose with shoal bay and that is a decent enough price and could run well.

CF Roberts Electrical & Mechanical Services Mares' Handicap Chase (13:55)

Twenty Eight Guns £50 EW 8/1 @bet365/b]. Conditions will be in this horses favour tomorrow and will be there when others have cried enough. The form is bad but last run can be marked up and could extend his form figures to 1111 when running in chases on soft ground.

Unicorn Group Handicap Chase (14:30)
[b]Abracadabra Sivola £30 Win 25/1 @ Paddy Power and Shanroe Santos £20 to win @8/1 Paddy Power
. This is a race i am happy to take on and want to take a shot at. I think this isn't that great of a race and looking for something to take on the market with. David pipe has won this a few tomes in recent years (2007,2009 and 2012) the last 3 winners have been rather unfancied 15/2 , 12/1 and 16/1 so form horse have disappointed in this race in the past, 8 of the last 10 winners have carried 11 stone or less so i had only 2 options to consider if i was to play the race, I just felt without stretching the bank this was worth a shot that could reward heavily and i have staked it heavily in favour of Abro because this horse could get loose on the lead if deciding he fancies it?


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