Saturday 7th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 7th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:40 am

It’s a sad day I’m afraid, but after 14 years it looks as if the RP website has finally joined the list of those to which access is now blocked. Fortunately, I’d downloaded all the data for today’s two races on Thursday night – the last time I had access – so managed to struggle through today, but there‘s nowhere else that can give me full access to the full history of all the horses and all the individual races, including OR, RPR, etc. So this looks likely to be my swansong, for without the data there’s no way I can carry out any analysis. Fingers crossed we can go out with a bang!

Sandown 12.55 Cl 2 Hcap 462 (105) 7f gd/fm – 16 Run (15 at best)
3yo = 9lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 431 (104) gd – 13 ran
El Hayem 8/1 4-8-12 (92) Dr 10 by 0.25l from Gm Hopkins 8/1 6-9-10 (104) Dr 7
Manson 16/1 4-9-1(95) Dr 13 was 2.75l 5th

Via Serendipity 4-8-13 (94) Dr 7
16 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (311 d) 8f gd/fm Sand (98) 4/1 1.25l 1/11 off 90
keen prominent, pushed along to lead 2f out, ridden and ran on
Has shown improvement this term, bookending 5/27 in the Victoria Cup with a pair of placed efforts at Chelmsford, and since going to win over C&D last month from Manson (+2) with Chiefofchiefs (0) 1.8l 4th; up 4lbs and meets the pair on worse terms, but could have more to give and may confirm that running.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: raised 4lbs;
Verdict: improving sort and may confirm June running here, a contender.
Tigre Du Terre 3-8-8 (98) Dr 5
Runner-up in a minor event at Maisons-Lafitte lto in a career best, following a Cl 5 novice win at Ripon; now enters the handicapping sphere, but has done little wrong so far.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: (43) hard to get a grip on what he’s achieved to date, but obviously improving and could take a hand here, a possible contender.
Original Choice 4-9-2 (97) Dr 2
05 May Cl 2 Hcap (259 d) 8f gd/sf Weth (100) 6/1 0.25l 1/15 off 94
mid-division, headway over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, held on well
Little worried about how he’ll handle the fast ground, but was in good form when last seen at Wetherby in early May, recording a career best; has been raised 3lbs for that, but bigger worry is the ground on which he’s yet to show form.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: going; course (?); up 3lbs; 63-day break;
Verdict: (42) was in good form at Wetherby, but suspect needs slower ground and jockey booking raise confidence he’s a strong contender.
Pouvoir Magique 4-8-13 (94) Dr 9
Inclined to forgive latest effort at Newcastle in early June when he reportedly finished lame; previously had looked the part in taking a Cl 2 hcap on fast ground at Newbury; runs off a 6lbs higher mark here, but should be suited by the ground and there could well be more to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (32 days);
Verdict: (42) not without chances if recovering Newbury form, a potential contender.
Escobar 4-9-7 (102) Dr 1
Formerly with Hugo Palmer, got off the mark for his new connections at Haydock in mid-June and then by no means disgraced when 11/30 in the Hunt Cup from one of the dreaded middle draws; no surprise if he were to go close.
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (17 days);
Verdict: (41) not without chances back against more realistic opposition, a contender.

A race in which 4yo have largely dominated, although the 3yo Black Spirit did win back in 2010. My shortlist sort of mirrors that as I have no place for the well fancied Chiefofchiefs, nor for Daira Prince who I feel might find a 10lbs rise a bit too much. Original Choice is the first from my list to join them on the sidelines, as I fear the ground will prove a little too fast for him. I’m very wary of the 3yo Tigre Du Terre, but this is a big jump in class for him, so I’ll stick with the older horses and go for Via Serendipity from Pouvoir Magique and Escobar

Haydock 13.45 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (105) 12f gd/fm – 17 Run

Last year – 623 (104) gd/fm – 16 ran
Dylan Mouth 25/1 6-9-10 (104) Dr 8 by 2.25l from Soldier In Action 9/1 4-9-10 (104) Dr 3
Blakeney Point 25/1 4-9-1 (95) Dr 17 was 4l 4th

Teodoro 4-9-6 (101) Dr 6
26 Jun Cl 3 Hcap (74 d) 12f gd/fm Newb (95) 5/1 6l 1/6 off 95
tracked leader, led over 3f out, ridden inside final furlong, ran on
Front-runner who improved as a 3yo, who won 4 of his 8 turf starts at up to 10f before finishing down the field in a valuable hcap at Newbury in September; looked to need his return over 10f here in May, but returned to this trip trotted up in a career best at Newbury a month later; has been raised 6lbs for that, but there could well be more to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (11 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (46) looks to be still improving and could well be more to come over this trip, a contender.
Atty Persse 4-9-4 (99) Dr 3
Looked the part when taking the King George V in a career best off 93 at last year’s Royal Ascot, but subsequently twice finished last of the bunch when raised to pattern company; not run since, but won in hcap company on his return last season and stable in fine form at present and fitted with a first-time tongue-tie.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 3lbs; down in class;
Minus: 318-day break;
Verdict (44) decision here revolves around his fitness and at such a short price looks to eb a contender with questions.
Sofia’s Rock 4-9-5 (100) Dr 10
30 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (129 u) 11.5f gd/fm Wind (100) 9/4 Jt F 0.75l 2/6 off 100
led and set decent pace, clear over 3f out until over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, headed 1f out, rallied towards finish, always held
Front runner who loves to dominate and having winning over C&D here in mid-June, was by no means disgraced when runner-up in another career best at Windsor last weekend; runs off the same mark today and while he’s unlikely to get an easy lead in this field, is obviously in good form at present.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (7 days); career best lto;
Verdict: (40) in good form at present, though has had more starts this season than most (6), but nevertheless, a possible contender.
Crowned Eagle 4-9-7 (102) Dr 8
Winner of the Rosebery at Kempton in March, but hasn’t really gone on from that, just being denied by Hamada at York in mid-May and then being headed over a furlong out when finishing 6l 6/17 in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot; runs off the same mark today and doesn’t look to have a lot in hand in the upper reaches of the handicap.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); recent outing (15 days);
Verdict: (40) doesn’t look ideally handicapped and not the strongest contender today.
Blakeney Point 5-9-10 (105) Dr 16
Runs off a 10lbs higher mark than when 4th in last year’s renewal, though to be fair he did finish the season with a bang taking hcaps at Newbury and Leicester; looked to be in need of the race on his return in listed company at Goodwood in late May, being headed a furlong out, outpaced and then guilty of causing interference and being placed 4/5; has had time to come on for that, but being asked a lot off this mark, plus suspect he doesn’t really enjoy fast ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (42 days);
Minus: 5lbs above last hcap mark;
Verdict: (40) improving in hcaps last season, but given no easy task today and not the strongest contender.

While last year’s 25/1 winner Dylan Mouth defied most of the past trends in being a 6yo carrying top weight off a mark of 104, the majority of past winners have been 4yos carrying 8-8 to9-4 and running off a mark of 90 to 97; moreover, the majority have started in the 8/1 to 14/1 range.

Others that could go well include Golden Wolf and perhaps Wingingit, but I’ll concentrate on my shortlist from which Blakeney Point and Crowned Eagle are the first to go. Atty Persse presents a real problem, for on his King George form he looks another handicap blot. It’s a common believe apparently and coming back from such a long break he’s much too short a price for me. Thus in, perhaps stupidly, looking elsewhere I’m going for Teodoro from Sofia’s Rock and Atty Persse.

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