Saturday 15th December

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 15th December

Postby Devasteve » Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:55 am

Just the one race today, which in all honesty is about much as I can manage nowadays – probably just as well with the string of losers I’m churning out! Let’s hope things turn out better today and at least one of the pair makes the frame.

Cheltenham 13.55 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 740 (164) 20.5f gd – 15 Run

Last year – 683 (155) sf – 10 ran
Guitar Pete 9/1 7-10-2 (134) by 2.75l from Clan Des Obeaux 3/1 F 5-11-12 (155)
Romain De Senam 14/1 5-11-2 (145) was 9.75l 5th
Foxtail Hill 12/1 8-11-1 (147) was 15.75l 6th
Splash of Ginge11/1 9-10-10 (139) was 20.25l 7th

Frodon 6-11-12 (164)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 20f gd Chelt 16/1 2l 2/18 off 161
in touch, led 3rd to 5th, tracked winner, driven after 3 out, 4 lengths down last, ridden and kept on flat, always just held
Winner of the 2016 renewal off 149, has continued to improve and following a breathing operation between seasons returned to take the Old Roan at Aintree in late October off 158; followed up with a solid effort in the BetVictor here last month off 161; finishing runner-up to Baron Alco (-15) although never able to mount a challenge; has been raised a further 3lbs, but while he meets the winner on 3lbs better terms and is likely to be thereabouts, he’s never won off a mark this high. plus gives a chunk of weight to the field.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run last time out (38 days);
Minus: up 3lbs;
Verdict: (56) ticks all the boxes, but likely to find it hard to hold off lighter weighted horses and not the strongest contender for the win perhaps.
Baron Alco 7-11-0 (152)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 20f gd Chelt 8/1 2l 1/18 off 146
led to 3rd, lead again 5th, made rest, driven 4 lengths clear last, ridden out flat, held on well
Runner-up at the Festival here in March and has returned in even better form for after just going down at Chepstow in mid-October, produced a career best to deny Frodon (+15) with Guitar Pete (-9) a distant third in the BetVictor here last month; under the circumstance, a 6lbs rise is not excessive considering this is only his ninth chase start.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run last time out (38 days); career best lto;
Minus: up 6lbs;
Verdict: (50) further improvement required off new mark, but a likely contender.
Mr Medic 7-10-5 (143)
23 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (220 s) 21f gd Ascot 20/1 3l 1/10 off 134
tracked leaders, led 13th, ridden 2 out, stayed on
Has an excellent record over fences at lower levels and showed improvement is still available when pulling off a shock win on his return from an 11-month break at Ascot last month; the handicapper has responded with a 9lbs rise, but it’s not impossible that there’s further improvement to come despite the rise in class, although one has to be aware of a possible ‘bounce’.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (22 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 9lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (44) class, course, weight rise and the possibility of a bounce leave him as a contender with questions.
Guitar Pete 8-10-0 (138)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 20f gd Chelt 12/1 10l 3/18 off 137
mid-division, ridden 3 out, stayed on under pressure when left well held 3rd last, no chance with clear pair
Runs from1lb out of the handicap and is off 4lbs higher than when taking last year’s renewal; has returned in good enough form being runner-up at Wetherby and 3rd in the BetVictor on his last 2 starts, albeit 10l adrift of the winner; however, may find it harder this year on the better ground.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: 1lb ooh;
Verdict: (44) not without chances, but harder task than last year perhaps on better ground.
War Sound 9-10-8 (146)
10 Nov Cl 2 Hcap Chase (500 u) 20f gd Aint 11/2 6l 1/11 off 136
held up towards rear, headway going well 12th, switched left and went 2nd 3 out, switched right before next, led approaching last, clear flat, easily
Grade winner over hurdles, but couldn’t open his account over the larger obstacles last
season despite going close on occasions. Made no mistake on his return at Aintree last month where he was a comfortable winner; has been raised 10lbs for that, which could well be merited if the win signalled that he’s turned a corner in his chaser career.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (35 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course; up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (42) chasing career could now possibly take off having gained the win and a contender.
Rather Be 7-10-11 (149)
17 Nov Gr 3 Hcap Chase (900 u) 20f gd Chelt 7/1 BD/18 off 149
in touch on inside, still there and going well enough when badly hampered and brought down 4 out
Showed much promise in a light campaign last season culminating in a career best when runner-up in the Close Bros Novices here at the Festival; made his return in the BetVictor here last month and was going well enough when BD 4 out; whether he’d have troubled the first two is largely irrelevant, as he meets them on 6lbs and 3lbs better terms today,
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (28 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (40) chance on Festival running and a contender if he can avoid trouble this time.

Past trends tell us to avoid the favourite but look for 6-8yo horses that finished in the top 3 lto that have had 1 to 3 runs this season and previously won no more than 2 HCh. Guitar Pete didn’t exactly fill many of those criteria last year, and I think I can pass on him doing the double this year. I’m not really taken with Romain De Senam nor for that matter Foxtail Hill, although he does generally run well enough here. From my initial shortlist I think I’ll pass on the 9yo War Sound and perhaps Mr Medic as he too is going up in the weights and tackling a new challenge for the first time. Much could be said in favour of Rather Be, but he has yet to fully tick some of the boxes, plus he didn’t manage to finish the BetVictor here lto. Now I know that was not entirely his fault, but I’m generally wary of choosing likely favourites who failed to complete lto. That rather leaves me with the first two in that race, Baron Alco and Frodon. Of the pair, Frodon is rather flying in the face of tradition in trying to carry 11-12 to victory here and while he may well make the frame, I have to think that Baron Alco has the best prospects of actually winning. So for me it’s Baron Alco from perhaps Frodon, with Mr Medic and Rather Be contesting the minor places and Foxtail Hill the best outsider.

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