Sunday 19th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 19th May

Postby Devasteve » Sun May 19, 2019 10:53 am

It did indeed go pear-shaped yesterday, although at least at Thirsk I did mention the winner as a possible danger. What went wrong at Newbury I still have to work out as perhaps I erred in viewing Breden’s lto run as a downturn. While Thrave ran much as expected, I’m still at a loss to explain Salute The Soldier’s effort!

Just the one race today – bit of a surprise a Cl 2 on a Sunday – and let’s hope we do a little better!

Ripon 16.20 Cl 2 Hcap 171 (102) 9f gd – 10 Run

Last year – 156 (95) gd/fm – 7 ran
Gurkha Friend 6/1 6-8-9 (83) Dr 5 by 2.5l from Fayez 20/1 4-8-13 (90) Dr 6

Just Hiss 6-8-9 (90) Dr 6
11/2* Cons 7* AB 110* Lto 200* SF 103* Rat 113*
27 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (200) 8f sf Hayd 20/1 8-7 3.75l 3/11 off 90 – 92
chased leaders, soon led, headed over 2f out, kept on same pace
29 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (130) 8f gd/sf Leic 6/1 8-13 6l 3/8 off 90 – 88
led 1f, remained prominent, led again over 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (190) 8f gd York 9/1 8-7 1.5l 1/16 off 86 – 94
made virtually all, ridden and edged left over 1f out, stayed on well and in command inside final furlong
Consistent enough handicapper at around this distance winning a Cl 190 at York in October, although unable to repeat that running off revised mark when dropped in class slightly at Leicester later in the month; ran better than expected on return at Haydock last month, finishing 3/11 to the much more fancied Mordin, with Knighted (0) a further 1.5l back in 4th; entered at York this past week but withdrawn presumably because of the fast ground there; has won over this trip in similar conditions at Musselburgh in September 2016; consistent in forecast and one of the higher ability group, plus coming from a higher class race lto, has solid ratings support; drops in class and carries the same weight as when winning at York, though off a 4lbs higher mark, and should be fitter for season return, although has never won before July; nevertheless, a possible contender.

Gurkha Friend 7-8-13 (94) Dr 5
4/1* Cons 20/9*? AB 103* Lto 70 (140) SF 108* Rat 116*
29 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (70) 8f AW Nwcs 10/1 9-0 6.5l 7/8 off 90 – 85
led 2f, tracked leader, driven and outpaced over 2f out, soon ridden, weakened final furlong
16 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (70) 8.5f AW Wolv 25/1 9-2 0.05l 3/10 off 89 – 95
led 2f, pressed leader until 2f out, rallied between horses in 2nd and every chance over 1f out, ran on, lost 2nd post
29 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (140) 8f gd/sf Hayd 10/1 8-11 0.05l 2/9 off 93 – 101*
led, ridden over 2f out, edged right, hard pressed inside final furlong, rallied gamely when narrowly headed inside final 100 yards, just held
Useful handicapper on turf having won the past two renewals off 90 and then 83 carrying 8-9 on both occasions; also won a Cl 90 here off 91 carrying 9-7 in June last year; not the same animal on the AW, his close 3rd at Wolverhampton in March being the exception and the first time he’d made the frame in 8 AW starts, which suggests they’re just to keep him ticking over and it’s noted that last year he also had a prep at Newcastle prior to taking the race; thus basing his form on his turf performances, he’s consistent in the forecast, among the high ability group and while up in class from even his last turf race, has strong rating support; carries 4lbs actual weight more than for either his previous successes in the race and runs off an 11lbs higher mark than last year – plus has an unfavourable 10lbs swing with runner-up Fayez – it would, nevertheless, be no surprise to see him at least make the frame.

Give It Some Teddy 5-8-2 (82) Dr 8
8/1 Cons 8# AB 101* Lto 60 SF 91* Rat 113*
10 May Cl 4 Hcap (60) 9.5f sf Nott 11/2 9-6 8.25l 6/10 off 83 – 72
mid-division, effort over 2f out, one pace and no impression over 1f out
08 Apr Cl 4 Hcap (60) 8f gd Red 8/1 9-2 0.02l 1/16 off 80 – 87*
mid-division, headway over 1f out, led entering final furlong, just held on
06 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (280) 8f gd Red 20/1 8-6 0.05l 1/15 off 77 – 86
mid-division, tracked leaders halfway, ridden to challenge 2f out, soon edged left towards far side rail, led entering final furlong, hard pressed towards finish, just held on
Improved throughout last season, just holding on in a Cl 280 at Redcar on final start in October carrying 8-6 off 77; showed new mark no problem when taking a Cl 60 off 80 carrying 9-2 at Redcar on return with Kripke (-2) back in 4th; poorer effort in similar race off just 3lbs higher at Nottingham lto may possibly have been down to the sf ground; now goes back up in class, but has been dropped 1lb in OR and carries 4lbs less than for October’s Redcar win off only a 5lbs lower mark; consistent, but not in the forecast, plus among the highest on ability, and while going up in class from lto does have ratings support; another that could possibly be considered a contender, although not among the strongest and may be hard pressed to confirm Redcar running with Kripke.

Kripke 4-8-2 (83) Dr 1
9/2* Cons 11* AB 81* Lto 80 SF 85 Rat 114*
01 May Cl 4 Hcap (80) 8f gd/fm Pont 7/4 F 9-5 1.5l 1/7 off 78 – 88*
tracked leaders, ridden on outside over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led final 75 yards, won going away
08 Apr Cl 4 Hcap (60) 8f gd Red 20/1 9-0 1.25l 4/16 off 78 – 82
mid-division, soon outpaced, headway over 1f out, never on terms
Won a Mdn at Southwell in March last year, but not seen after a disappointing effort in a hcap at Doncaster in May until returning at Redcar last month when ran better than expected to finish a creditable 4th to Give It Some Teddy (+2); has since confirmed favouritism in taking a slightly more valuable hcap at Pontefract; that has seen his mark rise 5lbs, but he will actually meet GIST on 1lb better terms today; consistent in the forecast and just among the highest on ability, he only has minimal support in the other figures and as such not the strongest contender although he might overturn Redcar running with GIST.

Fayez 5-8-6 (87) Dr 10
5/1* Cons 13#/8? AB 62 Lto 90 SF 93* Rat 114*
27 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (90) 8f gd Rip 16/1 9-5 5.5l 3/14 off 88 – 92
slowly away in rear, headway over 1f out, one pace final furlong
30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (280) 8f gd Donc 33/1 9-6 7.25l 9/16 off 92 – 85
held up in rear, progress 2f out, ridden just over 1f out, no further headway
09 Mar Cl 4 Hcap (60) 9.5f AW Wolv 15/2 9-7 0.25l 1/8 off 85 – 91
in rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, all out
Won on his debut here as a 2yo, but hasn’t won on turf since, finding the AW far more lucrative; that’s not to say he isn’t capable of running on turf, got he was only beaten 2.5; in last year’s renewal, carrying 8-13 off 90 and giving 4lbs to Gurkha Friend; this year he carries 8-6 off 87 and receives 6lbs from GF; was a game winner of a Cl 60 at Wolverhampton in early March and then given an impossible task to carry only 1lb less weight in the Cl 280 Spring Mile at Doncaster and under the circumstances did well to finish 9/16; dropped back to a Cl 90 over 8f here lto he finished a modest 3rd having been slowly away, so we can presume he’s fit; in the forecast, and certainly among the top five on consistency, he fails on ability and is going back up in class, but does have ratings support; hard to place him,

Others:
Knighted completed a hat-trick of hcap wins over 8f last summer, the final being with 9-5 off 86 at Redcar in September; down the field to Give It Some Teddy (-11) off 91 on final start there the following month; weakened final furlong on both his starts this year, the latest at Haydock when 1.5l behind Just Hiss (0) at Haydock; not a contender.
Red Mist making his season return and hcap debut; comfortable winner from Three Saints Bay here in a Cl 70 stks in late August, subsequently 4th in listed company at Newbury and Chantilly, the latter to Mr Satchmo who went on to record a second victory there in similar conditions; consistent in the forecast, but not enough other pluses to support on his return.

Working down from the top, Just Hiss was withdrawn from a more valuable race at York during the week, presumably due to the fast ground, and would look to the most likely contender today. I have to link Gurkha Friend with last year’s runner-up Fayez and while there’s no doubt that GF will have been trained to gain a three-peat, it looks a hard task to finish in front of F at the revised weights. I expect both to be thereabouts, but with Fayez edging Gurkha Friend this time round. In belief that the soft ground at Nottingham lto did for Give It Some Teddy, there should not be a lot between him and bottom weight Kripke. However, the younger horse has more scope for improvement and I expect him to get the better of the argument today. So I’m going for Just Hiss with perhaps Fayez edging out Gurkha Friend and Kripke.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Sunday 19th May

Postby martinkil » Mon May 20, 2019 8:07 am

At least you're back to smashing the woodwork - and with a 14-1 fellow.


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