Taunton 14:10

[SteveV]

Not a full on analysis as such, just wondering why we bother trying to assess a race using rational logic when the 9/4 morning price favourite Cresswell Breeze has been beaten by a combined 127 lengths in her last 3 runs at odds of 100-1, 40-1 and 25-1. Never run beyond 17 furlongs is now upped to 3 miles 110yds for her handicap debut. Apparently the whole world has been waiting for this except me, I am so annoyed that I am going to take her on with the obvious form choice AROSEFORASCAR which at least will offer a tiny bit of E/W value.

[Steve]

Funnily enough Steve, I saw this this morning and thought the same. 15-8 now. It has only once stayed on ever so slightly over 2 miles, weakened last 3 races and now on the job upped to 3 miles !! That is a stable that I take note of in bumpers when the money is down, as they seem to have a good strike rate in those races.

Be a struggle to stay awake this afternoon looking at the uninspiring fare on offer today.....!

[SteveV]

Be a struggle to stay awake this afternoon looking at the uninspiring fare on offer today.....!

To be honest I really don't care if its the Derby or a selling handicap, I judge a race by whether or not its got a good bet in it, and actually the bog standard races are often easier to work out. I probably won't have a bet in any of the handicaps at Cheltenham for example, just ridiculously hard to whittle down a reasonable shortlist!

[Steve]

Agree with you to some extent Steve, but as you said yourself about this horse today in the first post, there are far more job horses and non triers in class 5 handicaps , regardless of how clean they tell us this sport is. How do you think owners pay the bills when they get maybe 1500 quid for winning a race which 99% of horses don't anyway? Training fees are a min a grand a month before add ons. Being able to lay your horse has made it far easier to recoup some or all of these expenses.

Like you, I pay my bills through this poor fare so it does not bother me (and last month was my best ever month by miles), but I still fail to be inspired by it and end up nodding off by 3pm!!!!!!

[SteveV]

i don't even watch most of the races I have a bet in as I am not an in play trader and once the bets are on there's nothing I can do to influence the result!

I absolutely agree about the amount of job horses but if you have been doing this for a while you can smell one a mile off. Normally its when they have the handicap mark down to a certain point below its last winning run, those are fairly straightforward. It is the ones that are thrown into their first handicap like Cresswell Breeze today where unless you have an 'in' with the connections you would not have touched it with a bargepole that are frustrating. I absolutely do not blame Owners for this though, the prize money on offer at the lower end is less than what it was when I started following horse racing in the mid eighties yet the cost of keeping a horse must have gone up tenfold.

[Barney21]

I call them "alert" horses you get 3/4 a day where the form just does not tally up,what do you do? as you cannot totally ignore them,the market has to be an important factor surely,do the connections know something that the form book doesn,t we will see.Tea Caddy small ew for me.good luck all.

[SteveV]

I call them "alert" horses you get 3/4 a day where the form just does not tally up,what do you do? as you cannot totally ignore them,the market has to be an important factor surely,do the connections know something that the form book doesn,t we will see.Tea Caddy small ew for me.good luck all.

Its just the massive jump in distance Barney that makes it obvious. It is like when Mark Prescott puts one in a handicap over ten furlongs after three abysmal runs in 5f maidens, absolutely nothing underhand about it even though he had to run a horse seven times once before the handicapper would allocate it an Official Rating

[martinkil]

This thing was almost fav on it's first two starts in NHF races 17f and 14f so it must have been showing something at home even back then. Interestingly the two horses which won those races are now 130+ rated hurdlers. The fav is the sort of runner who in my more naive moments I would be looking to Lay (to my cost usually). Nowadays, I would look to lay it short InPlay in the knowledge that if it makes a move, there will be a rush of expectation and a high probability it will trade sub 2.0. It might still win, but it won't hurt as much.

My inclination would be to try to DOB the exposed - Unefille De Guye - who has a good dobbing rate in recent races. In fact if you look at his InPlay price map in the Price Movement cards you'll see that in each of the last 5 races he's almost doubled (or more) in price from his Bfsp before crashing back down indication that he takes some time to get going but does tend to respond to pressure.

[Barney21]

Cheers steve.

[Steve]

I call them "alert" horses you get 3/4 a day where the form just does not tally up,what do you do? as you cannot totally ignore them,the market has to be an important factor surely,do the connections know something that the form book doesn,t we will see.Tea Caddy small ew for me.good luck all.

Its just the massive jump in distance Barney that makes it obvious. It is like when Mark Prescott puts one in a handicap over ten furlongs after three abysmal runs in 5f maidens, absolutely nothing underhand about it even though he had to run a horse seven times once before the handicapper would allocate it an Official Rating

That's their excuse when the stewards have an enquiry to ask them to explain the sudden 2 stone improvement in their horse. "Nothing untoward Guv' just been running over the wrong distance" !!!!!!