Grand National (Martin)

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
philipg
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Grand National (Martin)

Postby philipg » Wed Feb 18, 2015 6:56 am

Martin I am sorry if this is in the wrong section. I wondered when assessing this great race, how far back is it worth delving into the horse history.
I normally set my parameter to 18 months on my day to day selections, and I feel everything that is required will be unearthed in this time. Obviously because of its nature, is it worth widening and looking further back for this particular race, or do you think everything that needs to be seen can be captured in this time frame. I understand everything is subjective but your input would be great.

Thanks.

martinkil
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby martinkil » Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:37 am

Shouldn't you ask how often I find the winner of the National first ? :)

LoveWinners
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Feb 19, 2015 11:24 am

i have a sure fire way to success = back every runner in the field :lol:


i didnt say success is profit just winning finding at its best :D


The weird and wacky world of the grand national past 16 years

avoid lto winners as always get overbet but back horse who finish 2nd - 8th lto would have netted +13 points profit you would have had to remortgage to bet them all though :D the last 18 running 16 winners finished 8th or better lto though. the other 2 winners previous form were f or p/u weirdly any horse that unseated never hit the frame in that population of data

15 of the last 18 running's horse were carrying 11 stone of less.

136 - 157 OR range for all 18 latest running's really classy runners havent done too well but i dont see a reason why it cannot happen

just to add to the craziness backing favs or jt favs in that population of data would have actually returned a 5pt profit.


all winners in that population (last 18) ran between 16~60 days (although they were of course the largest subset numerically)


season runs - all winners had atleast 3 runs that season and another weird stat was that backing horse who had 6 runs that season would have netted +100 pts profit from 6 winners (86 qualifiers)


14/18 had raced 3m5f+ and all previous winners had won at 3m+


LTo track - cheltenham 4 win (2%) loss 135, haydock 3 wins (5%) profit 10 pts, kelso 2 wins (12%) profit 65 pts, uttoxeter 2 wins (6%) profit 84 pts, punchestown , newcastle, naas, doncaster, fairyhouse , leopardstown and downroyal all 1 win each interesting to note the irish tracks lto may have not been the most fortunate but have a decent advantage in th place s/r.

With a race of this nature is is vital to understand its just a fun race where variance is at a premium so the bast way to tackle such races imo is to use a method of reducing the field to a more manageable size by using any field reduction you feel comfortable really and the reason for this is because its a fun race and not to be taking serious you dont want to be having to analyse it for hours on end....

The problem with trends is we are backfitting always but if we use parameters we can do so in a fair way

if we look at horse run 16-60 days with a or range 136-157 (you could alter this to 135-160 or whatever you feel more comfortable with etc)

the above would see all winners and only a loss of £1 for the whole population..... there would have been a 451 horse over the 18 years so an average of 25 per year.


if this is still too time consuming with the remaining runners we would look to filter it down further , you could do a basic research with ratings and find a pattern or apply more filters to reduce to population....


you could go down the route of genuine route in dismissing all runners with head gear we would lose 2 of the winners but would have reduced the population to 359 (just under 20 runners average) and the group would have then become profitable of 75 points

or you could use the class angle with class droppers having a poor recent run, horse who have finished atleast 5th in last 3 runs showing some form and the important sole angle of course experience buy eliminating all horse who havent run at the track before....or any such preferred profile


the one above would have seen the winner in 10 years of the 18 but more important the population was 137 so a average 7.6 runners per yer to consider on a side note those in that population with filters profited 223 points it would have highlighted

2014 (7 qualifiers) winner 25/1 and the second 14/1
2013 (10 q) winner 66/1 and the second 12/1
2012 (10 q) winner 33/1 and the 16/1
2011 ( 7 q) winner 14/1
2010 (11q) winner 10/1
2009 (9q) winner 100/1
2008 (10q) miss
2007 (7q) winner 33/1


etc etc etc


there really isnt a definitive approach or ratings that will give a large edge tha i believe reliable and that is a good thing imo for a race of this nature , you can take any route to arrive at a selection and luck will be the deciding factor and hence why i try to get a short list of 5 and bet them all for a tenner each and then 50p combination fc 25p combination tricast , any winner will cover the multibet and if there is any race that is worth chancing a big payout its this race as small wagers can clearly become large returns and if you lose then what damage has really been done?


but there is always the greatest strategy of them all and will take less than 10 seconds to come to the selection and that is the old blindfold and pin technique but remember to not do this on the sofa :oops:

Buzzit
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby Buzzit » Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:43 pm

Weight and age definitely help a bit.. As does form (I stay away from recent pulled ups and fallers)

SteveV
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby SteveV » Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:48 pm

Until I know what the ground is like I don't even look at the entries to be honest, if it is soft or heavy you can reduce the field by at least half most years because there are always a few doubtful stayers as well as the ones that just don't act on the going anyway.

philipg
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby philipg » Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:37 am

Good answers and analysis. Once the dust settles a little, maybe we could use this thread to put up some early thoughts and selections. I know the Grand National is a lottery but we are all going to watch the race and if we could find the winner it would be great. We certainly have the expertise here in this forum to slice and dice the race down to a workable number of runners. When I get a bit of time I will have a go and see if I can get the ball rolling to a shortlist of say 10 contenders. Thanks everyone for the positive input and great reading material. I will try and put some up in the next couple of weeks hopefully sooner.

Headed_post
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby Headed_post » Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:37 pm

Hi All

The race is becoming less of a lottery as time passes imho and there are some very strong trends now. its a much classier race than it used to be so some consistency is able to be seen in recent winners profiles. I'll post something nearer the time with a view towards possible selections ( the going to be taken into account on the day of course)

LoveWinners
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:26 pm

i'd be happy chucking my hat into the ring closer to the race also and when i get a chance to look in isolation so thats a few of us for the wacky race's :lol: but before hand we got the easy pickings of cheltenham to build the bank last year had a stormer and got he gold cup winner and champion hurdle winner, neptune , queen mother and even the bumper , handicaps were hit and miss though with orgilgo bay being my biggest bet of the week and still feel robbed to this day :( , pendra 3rd again thought i was on the winner but finished the week in style when don poli won with ease in the last :) got many emails thanking me for that one , funny how if its a last race winner people are more inclined to thank you and if last race loser they forget the 33/1 winners earlier ......fickle bunch :D well i guess im being harsh as it wasnt the last race but the fickle comments still holds true :lol:

primrose4
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby primrose4 » Sat Feb 21, 2015 12:44 pm

A quick reply

In recent years the most important part of finding the Grand National winner is previous experience of these
fences. It was noticeable that Tea for Three was the ante-post favourite last year for a considerable amount
of time. This was due to the previous season's running since its form throughout last year was very poor for a National
favourite. This indicates that bettor's have now cottoned onto the importance of having previous experience at
this unique track.
I noticed that the same horse is entered for a third time. Unlike the previous year Tea for Three was not mentioned in
the various National summaries which leads me to believe that the early price may offer some early value.

diesel001
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Re: Grand National (Martin)

Postby diesel001 » Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:20 pm

Bumping this up given the race is tomorrow.

One thing to note - Aintree has altered the way they dress the fences to make them more solid. Expect the circuit (especially second time around) to be harder to jump than in the last few years - you can see in the Topham today that it looked tougher to jump.


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