Damon's selections

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:36 pm

Only 1 bet today;
4.25 Wolverhampton CLASS 6 HC (0-65)

Raging bear 1pt win

The selection was beaten LTO by 0.75 lengths by the same rival he is facing today (Gabriel the thug). Running over the same C&D and with a crucial 3Lbs in hand, I am hopeful that the form between the two can be reversed. Gabriel the thug is 3/3 over course and distance and carrying 9-7 (same as LTO when victorious) he seems to have thrived off the drop in trip after a 9 run losing streak between 9-10 furlongs (albeit he has won once at 1m 2f) but he clearly has stronger form over 1m 141yds! You would have to cast your memory back to 2013 to find a winning run for my selection. (which leads me to believe I am crazy for putting up this horse haha) That victory came over an extended 7f trip in a claimer at Lingfield for the deadly Hannon and Hughes combination. Since then he has obviously changed hands and had disappointing runs in class 4 and 5 HC races. He has however placed in all 4 of his races in class 6 company which is where he is at home! Ryan Tate is in the saddle and has an 11% strike rate on AW (38 from 347 rides) and is 48 from 436 rides on horses 4yo+ (Also 11%) All In all am hopeful that my selection can at least give me a run for my money today and look forward to doing more write ups in future!

Thanks for reading and good luck with your bets if you are having a flutter.
Happy Thursday!!!

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:57 pm

*correction raging bear has 4Lbs in hand not 3Lbs*

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:39 pm

Well that went well!! Stayed on for 4th after an absolute shocker of a start! (Lost about 6 lengths after standing still in the stalls as they opened).
Only bet of the day so -1 point! Could have all been so different! Disclosure ran on well to beat the fav though!

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:47 am

Friday 20th march selection;

NAP: The Dancing Lord 7.05 Dundalk-1pt win

My selection is a Dundalk specialist I have been following for a while. (backed when winning at prices of 8-1, 7-2 and 6-1). He has ran here on 7 occasions without ever being out of the places. (Dundalk form reads 2112113). Bumped into a couple too good LTO but not disgraced, and managed to stay on stoutly behind the winner Bishan bedi into third 1f from home. In the end losing by just over 1.25 lengths. This gelding has a fantastic attitude towards it's job, he also loves a battle and seems to give 100% effort in every run without fail! He is top weight in this field tomorrow carrying 9st-10lbs which could possibly be a negative but he has won carrying more than this in the past in arguably better company, so it has not put me off! The other horses in the race I cannot discount are Beau Satchel and Tom Dooley! Beau Satchel is also a C&D winner and carrying 5lbs less than my selection. But he has not had a run for nearly 5 months so may be in need of it! The other Tom Dooley sprung a 20-1 shock here last month and is under veteran Pat Smullen for the first time which may be interesting!
The price for my selection is likely to be poor in comparison to his previous runs (apologies in advance for selecting a fav) but I would like to get my first winner on the board (or at least try) otherwise you guys may never take me seriously lol! Then I can hopefully pick out some decent priced value selections in future! But always remember a short priced winner is definitely better than a long priced loser!

Thanks for taking the time to read this and good luck if you are having a Friday flutter!

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:18 am

*correction in the LAST 7 runs he hasn't been out of the places! He has lost at this track* figures for Dundalk are;
W4-P3-L4
key: W=won P=place L=lost

FormStudent
Posts: 594
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:51 am

Re: Damon's selections

Postby FormStudent » Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:30 pm

Good call with The Dancing Lord, well done :)

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:21 pm

Thankyou very much, although a bit short priced and looked in trouble against the rail before switching right and staying on well!
Now to see what tomorrow brings. Just got home from work so not even looked at the cards yet :D

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:36 am

Saturday 21st march selection;

NAP - Master Neo 3.10 Newbury 0.5pts ew

Putting my neck on the line with this selection (form figures from last 3 races read 0PP). This horse has caught my eye however because he is potentially very well handicapped running off a mark of 117 and bottom weight in this field (10st 9lbs). If returning to form, I believe he could potentially make a mockery of that mark and at least snatch a place! There has also been some money for him this evening which I think is intriguing as 10-1 was widely available earlier and now you would probably struggle to get 8's. Master Neo's trainer Nigel Hawke has also hit a good spot of form this month with 6 winners from his last 9 runners which is a very respectable stat indeed. The run that has really caught my attention though is a brave 4th behind Sam Winner, The Druids Nephew and Saint Are respectively at Cheltenham back in November. (Grade 3 contest). Although he was beaten by 40 lengths that day I think it is still a big drop in class and after finishing nowhere then pulling up on his last 2 runs he has tumbled down the weights to a very lenient mark. I have two worries though, one is the going as Master Neo is unproven on good ground (form on good ground is 7-P) and the other worry I have is financial climate who is the mount of McCoy. This horse performs on good ground, is a C&D winner and with the champ on board has to be hugely respected. This being said I am hopeful that I will get a run for my money and also think this horse is too well handicapped to go unbacked!

Good luck if you are having a bet as it isn't the easiest day or the best quality of racing for a Saturday IMO!

Roll on the Aintree meeting!!

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:24 pm

Back to the drawing board for me, Master Neo made a mistake and never recovered -1 point for the day! Going to heal my wounds with a beer I think bk next week! the old boy carruthurs battling on gamely from Amigo to win in style!

damon2290
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:07 pm

Re: Damon's selections

Postby damon2290 » Sat Apr 18, 2015 1:03 am

Saturday 18th April selection;

NAP - BERLARDO - 2.50 Newbury

This looks a very tough race with some very classy types involved, The selection is a dual 7f winner (at listed and notably Group 1 level) trained by Roger Varian with James Doyle doing the steering. He came 4th to Estidhkaar (who he re-opposes today) by two and a half lengths on his penultimate start but managed to reverse that form LTO. Scoring by two lengths to Kodi Bear with Estidhkaar back in 4th! I think he is a progressive sort who could be anything this year having performed well at group 1 level as a 2yo. My one concern is that he is on the back end of a 183 day lay off and I don't know how he will perform fresh, but I think it could be worth sticking with him this season and even if he doesn't win today he could be profitable to follow through the season!
Good luck if you are having a bet

Also going for this lucky 31 so in me luck :)

Newbury;
Balmoral Castle 1.15
Pethers Moon 1.45
Russian Punch 2.15
Belardo 2.50
Wheat sheaf 5.10
20p lucky 31
£6.20


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