Thursday 5th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 5th May

Postby Devasteve » Thu May 05, 2016 11:44 am

A rare midweek appearance with today and tomorrow both being holidays. So maybe with the change I can shake this losing streak!

Chester 14.10 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (100) 10.5f gd – 11 Run
Weights raised 5lbs
Last year – 158 (101) sf 11 ran
Collaboration (97.9) 9/4 F 4-9-1 (95) Dr 3 by 2.25l from Tres Coronas 4/1 8-9-5 (99) Dr 4
Master Of Finance (92.2) 6/1 4-8-11 (91) Dr 2 was 4l 3rd
Sennockian Star 16/1 5-9-1 (95) Dr 5 was 17.6l 8th

Darshini 4-8-12 (91) Dr 5
16 Apr Cl 3 Hcap 10f W Chelm 6/4 F 1l 1/7 off 87 Rat 86
tracked leading pair, ridden to challenge 1f out, 2nd inside final furlong, stayed on to lead well inside final furlong
Winner over 7f at Sandown as a 2yo and won over 8f on his return at Doncaster as a 3yo; had Dark Red (-10) behind him when runner-up to Resonant over 9f at Goodwood in late May; however, probably found 12f beyond him at Salisbury last June and never threatened on gd/sf on final start at Nottingham in October; made a winning return in a Cl 3 at Chelmsford last month, although not sure of the value of that form as neither 2nd nor 3rd stamped the form on their next starts; has been raised 4lbs for that, but is up in class today, plus making debut at this level and at Chester.
Plus: going (?); distance; trainer form; recent form run (19 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: has scope for further improvement this year, but refitting of cheek-pieces suggests trainer not entirely happy with his AW effort, and maybe not the strongest of contenders today.
American Artist 4-8-13 (92) Dr 9
23 Apr Cl 3 Hcap 10.5f gd Donc 4/1 0.05l 2/13 off 90 Rat 92
tracked leaders, led over 1f out, strongly challenged inside final furlong, headed and no extra last strides
Showed improvement over the second half of the season as a 3yo winning 3 of his last 5 starts and finishing 3rd in the Silver Cambridgeshire; raised 2lbs for that but made a promising return when only just denied by Hit The Jackpot over today’s conditions at Doncaster last month; has been raised a further 2lbs for that, but improvement likely and should find today’s conditions to suit.
Plus: class (?); going; distance; trainer from; recent form run (12 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs; up in class;
Verdict: could have perhaps had a better draw, but overall conditions look to suit and a contender.
Dark Red 4-8-11 (90) Dr 10
20 Apr Cl 2 Hcap 10f sf Eps 12/1 0.75l 1/11 off 84 Rat 98
keen, close up, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, hung left towards finish
Unraced as 2yo, but showed promise last year without winning; since been gelded and got off the mark on his return at Chelmsford at the end of March; raised 9lbs fro that but held on well to take the City & Suburban at Epsom last month with What About Carlo (+16) back in 3rd and Sennockian Star (+11) towards the rear; has been raised a further 6lbs for that, but could still be improving and with Norton riding for Johnston, De Sousa takes the ride today.
Plus: class; going (?); distance; trainer form; recent form run (15 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs;
Verdict: fit and in form, and a contender despite the wide draw.
What About Carlo 5-9-7 (100) Dr 3
20 Apr Cl 2 Hcap 10f sf Eps 7/1 3.75l 3/11 off 100 Rat 92
slowly away in rear, ridden over 2f out, switched right and headway over 1f out, ran on final furlong, not reach leaders
In good form last season winning at Epsom and Newbury in August/September; made a promising return at Epsom last month when 3rd to Dark Red (-16) and meets him on 6lbs better terms for 3.75l; however, I’m not sure the drying ground has done him any favours, as his best form has been shown on the soft side of gd; moreover, he has it all to do off top weight even though nicely drawn.
Plus: class; going; distance; recent form run (15 days);
Minus: course (?); trainer from;
Verdict: going against the odds as top weight and not the strongest contender.
Felix De Vega 4-8-11 (90) Dr 1
14 Apr Cl 3 Hcap 10f hv Rip 5/2 F 3.5l 1/11 off 82 Rat 87
tracked leaders in 3rd, led over 2f out, kept on strongly
Very much a career best when winning on hv at Ripon last month under today’s rider; has been raised 8lbs for that though, plus is up in class today; however, only other win was on fast ground, so should handle today’s conditions; moreover, inside draw might not be too much of an advantage unless he can stay with the pace.
Plus: going (?); distance; trainer form; recent form run (21 days);
Minus: class; course; up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: fit and in form, but up in class and not the strongest contender.

Of others, Sennockian Star runs off only 2lbs lower mark than when down in the field in last year’s renewal and would have to improve a whole lot on season return at Epsom and is passed over, as is stable companion Master Of Finance who runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 3rd last year. One that may run better than expected though is Perrault at the foot of the handicap who makes his first start for his new connections. However, looking at my shortlist I’m going for Dark Red from American Artists and Darshini.

malvasia
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:28 pm

Re: Thursday 5th May

Postby malvasia » Thu May 05, 2016 1:57 pm

Well done Steve, great write up as always.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Thursday 5th May

Postby martinkil » Thu May 05, 2016 7:05 pm

Nice winner Steve


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