13.15 Sandown

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

13.15 Sandown

Postby philipg » Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:18 am

I have rated up the 13.15 Sandown. 1st rating is the raw unadjusted for weight Racing Post Rating the best rating for 2016/17 Ground and going uncalculated this is a benchmark ability rating. The 2nd rating to stay in line with RPR rating is 12 months best speed rating achieved on Patternform again ground is uncalculated. I have taken the 1st 7 in the betting this must snag the winner.

RPR PF
1Mercian Prince 135 69
2Atire Larigo 128 72
3Mystifiable 119 44
4Gores Island 127 65
5Morning Reggie 117 74
6Daveron 122 71
7Marcilhac 125 68

Looking above we can discard Mysifiable on account of poor speed figure Also 12 Stone? Really. This leave us 6 runners. If we now use Mercian Prince as the master rating and we adjust the other horses to this weight.

1 135
2 +4 132
3 Eliminated
4 +9 136
5 +9 126
6+5 129
7+2 127

This still all looks to tight none removed. Next we need to see if using Soft ground option and 12 months what speed figures have been achieved, we need to remove more horses. 3 horses stand out with the Soft going filter,
the only problem I have is PF soft is not the same as timeform that I use, but hey ho.

Morning Reggae 74 Daveron 71 Mercian Prince 58 Below I have used timeform going.

Morning Reggae 6 Chase runs on Soft 1 win also a notable 2nd where he hit 1.1 This is close enough to almost be a win. The win was @ Sandown the 1.1 @ Newbury.

Daveron 1 Chase run on Soft 1st Ludlow.

Mercian Prince 1 Chase run in France on Soft 1st Auteil

This still looks tight, but with proven track class form and a decent Patternform speed rating on calculated soft ground MORNING REGGAE gets the vote, he appears on RPR to need to find 9lbs with Mercian Prince, but I am a stickler for better track form, Southwell form is not something I want to travel here with, the same applies to Daveron, when he went to the better tracks he was found out.

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: 13.15 Sandown

Postby tafflizgreg » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:21 am

good write up using my sytem throws up same horse,but not by enough to make it a bet for me ,good luck

poli29
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:14 am

Re: 13.15 Sandown

Postby poli29 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:55 am

Nice analysis,.!I like Gores Island also,as i choose 2 horses for every race.Also Atirelarigo+Daveron main danger!Still checking!

PKEff63
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 3:01 pm

Re: 13.15 Sandown

Postby PKEff63 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:25 am

Hi...just want to throw one in here........... you discount mystifiable. I'm a strong believer in trainers @ tracks and Fergal OBrien has since Jan 2014 had a 57.14 win percentage at Sandown giving a ROI with Betfair of 282.72, although not in this race type (HC)
The horse form may not stack up, but the trainer @ track certainly does.

I must just confess I'm not a big gambler but love looking at stats so thought I would mention as a point of interest!

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 13.15 Sandown

Postby martinkil » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:45 pm

I also went for - MORNING REGGAE - so I'd like to say "great minds think alike" - what the hell I WILL say it.
We can't win every time, but at least we know we made the right choice which will pay off in the long run!


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