15th January 14.30 Fairyhouse

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

15th January 14.30 Fairyhouse

Postby philipg » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:51 pm

After the success of earlier let us try and have a go at this good quality Fairyhouse race.

We need to trim this field down. 1st filter 12 months. This unfortunately only removes 3 runners. We need to go further and slice this field up.
2nd filter 18 Months Soft to Heavy ground this brings us to a hotlist of just 6 runners. We will work from these and see if we are lucky enough to snag the winner.

Ball D'arc. Draycott Place. Dysios Day's Hotel. Baltimore Rock. Mister Hotelier.

Next we will Racing Post rate these.

Adjusted for weight this all looks very tight.

Baltimore Rock 153
Ball D'arc 153
Dysios 153
Draycott Place 152
Day's Hotel 151
Mister Hotelier 113// Eliminated.

We are now left with 4 runners's and now it is proving very tough to seperate them, this is clearly on paper a very tight handicap. I think we need to widen the filters here and go on finer detail's to try and isolate the winner. 12 Runners +18 month's is the next filter we will use.

This takes us down to 2 clear runners @ the 70+ barrier.

Dysio's 72
Draycott Place 70

I will include here Ball D'arc 64 although he is now on the cut list... Next Filter we will use will be the recent form 6 months Filter.

Ball D'arc 79. 77.
Draycott Place 72. 69.
Dysios 54. 30 Eliminated.

I can see why Ball D'arc is favourite, this is the form horse, but @ 4/1 the very best price available looks poor value when we take all the figure's above. We cannot back this at these odds. DRAYCOTT PLACE available @ 22/1 at a couple of the bookmakers looks much better value, this is our pick for the race.

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: 15th January 14.30 Fairyhouse

Postby tafflizgreg » Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:08 pm

Thanks

dfmarketing14
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:37 pm

Re: 15th January 14.30 Fairyhouse

Postby dfmarketing14 » Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:40 pm

Very nice analysis Phil, impressed

tafflizgreg
Posts: 167
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 10:49 am

Re: 15th January 14.30 Fairyhouse

Postby tafflizgreg » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:48 pm

Top tipping again cheers

Skeather+7
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:26 pm

Re: 15th January 14.30 Fairyhouse

Postby Skeather+7 » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:33 pm

how u adjusted for weight


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