Saturday 20th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 20th May

Postby Devasteve » Sat May 20, 2017 11:34 am

Enjoy your break Martin, you more than deserve it for your sterling efforts!!
Not the best of weeks at all, plus I end up with a Saturday that offers little in the sort of races I look at - have even broken a rule and looked at 3yos before Royal Ascot, though not seriously!

Newbury 14.55 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 436 (95) 10f sf – 14 Run

Last year – 436 (93) gd 14 ran
Imperial Aviator 7/2 F 3-8-13 (85) Dr 3 by 4.5l from Cartago 14/1 3-9-5 (91) Dr 4

Mucho Applause 3-8-11 (85) Dr 7
28 Apr Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (156) 8f gd Sand (93) 12/1 0.05l 2/13 off 82
Prominent, led over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, kept on under pressure, headed final strides
Won a 7f mdn on sf at Salisbury in September and returned to narrowly go down in the Esher Cup at Sandown last month; raised 3lbs for that, but may well do better stepping up in trip.
Plus: class (F); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: can handle the ground and may well appreciate the step up in trip, a contender.
Century Dream 3-8-13 (87) Dr 11
28 Apr Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (93) 10f gd Sand (91) 7/2 2l 3/5 off 86
Took keen hold, led until 2f out, hard ridden, kept on
Won on gd/sf at Nottingham in October and proved he could see out this trip on his return at Sandown last month; has been raised 1lb for that and may find it tougher up in class, plus stable in poor form (0/15).
Plus: distance (W); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 1lb; up in class; trainer (14d);
Verdict: improving sort, but will need to show more again up in class.
Defoe 3-9-0 (88) Dr 1
Won a sf ground mdn at Ffos Las on debut in September and didn’t run badly at Epsom a fortnight later; however, looked totally out of sort in listed company over 10f at Newmarket in early October and not seen since.
Plus: going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: class (?); distance; course (?); 224-day break; hcap debut;
Verdict: ground should suit, but too many other questions to be a strong contender.
Andok 3-8-13 (87) Dr 4
06 May Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (129) 8f gd/fm Nwmk (102) 9/2 5.2l 5/10 off 87
Held up in last pair, ridden over 2f, switched right and headway over 1f out, no impression and edged left 1f out, weakened inside final furlong and lost 4th last strides
Won first 2 starts as a 2yo, including a nursery on gd/sf, and not beaten far in another nursery at Doncaster on final 2yo start in October; not disgraced on return at Newmarket earlier in the month and trainer must believe it was a fitness rather than a stamina issue that saw him lose 4th in final strides.
Plus: class (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days);
Minus: going (?); distance (?); course (?);
Verdict: could be interesting if staying the trip and a contender.

Far too early in the season to be looking at one of these, but Mucho Applause looks the most likely with Andok a possible outsider to make the frame.

Newmarket 15.15 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 280 (105) 6f sf – 10 Run

Last year – 280 (102) gd/fm 11 ran
Show Stealer 22/1 3-8-4 (85) Dr 3 by 0.5l from Marsha 8/1 3-9-0 (95) Dr 4

Eqtiraan 3-9-7 (105) Dr 8
06 May Cl 2 Hcap (129) 6f gd/fm Nwmk (100) 8/1 0.5l 2/9 off 100
Steadied start, took keen hold, held up in midfield, closed to join leaders and travelling strongly over 2f out, ridden to lead and edged left over 1f out, soon hard pressed and headed inside final furlong, kept on well but always held after
Won Ascot mdn on debut last July, though failed to add to this success in 2 subsequent starts; gelded between seasons and after finishing 3/7 in a listed stks at Lingfield in April, was narrowly by Danielsflyer over C&D here at the start of the month; has been raised 5lbs for that, which looks a little stiff.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: penalised non-winner from last race harms his chances as a contender.
Ekhtiyaar 3-8-5 (89) Dr 6
28 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (78) 6f gd/fm Donc (86) 7/2 1.5l 2/11 off 85
Tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, no impression towards finish
Effort at Doncaster on his return suggests he’s still improving and steps up in class again today.
Plus: distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: continues to improve and a contender if handling the ground.
Holmeswood 3-8-1 (85) Dr 4
28 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (78) 6f gd/fm Donc (86) 5/1 2.25l 3/11 off 84
Took keen hold, held up, headway 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong
Another to show his fitness on his return, finishing 0.75l behind Ekhtiyaar (+1) at Doncaster last month; meets him on 3lbs better terms today, plus has cheekpieces fitted for the first time; however, stable cold at present (0/13).
Plus: Plus: distance (W); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); trainer (14d); up 1lb; up in class;
Verdict: another improving sort and a possible contender if handling the ground

Not a lot to go on here as usual with 3yos, but with Eqtiraan the only one to have run on sf he just gets the nod from Ekhtiyaar.

Newbury 17.35 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (102) 8f sf – 17 Run (15 at best)

Last year – 249 (104) gd 13 ran
Azraff 16/1 4-8-12 (95) Dr 2 by 1.25l from Gabrial’s Kaka 8/1 6-8-8 (91) Dr 7
Sinfonietta 7/1 4-8-8 (91) Dr 4

Dark Red 5-8-11 (94) Dr 4
Gelded prior to the start of last season and responded by winning the first 3 starts on his return at around 10f; but in another good effort at around that distance at York in September, though failed to match that level in his final 2 starts at the Curragh and in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket; Moore rode him to victory to open last season, but I’m not sure about the drop back to 8f as all his success has some at 10f; the ground should suit, however, although stable in poor form (1/22).
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); down 3lbs;
Minus: course (?); 238-day break; trainer (14d);
Verdict: questions about drop in trip and poor stable form harm his chances of being a strong contender.
Withernsea 6-8-10 (93) Dr 12
Not won since November 2015, but ran well when runner-up in a valuable handicap at Leopardstown last September; although all his form has been over 7f, wasn’t beaten far despite finishing in midfield in the Lincoln on his return; moreover, failed to find the necessary when dropped back to 7f in the Victoria Cup last weekend; has been dropped a further 3lbs and will find the ground much more to his liking today, but whether he has the stamina to win at the distance remains the question.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F?); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (7 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: up in trip;
Verdict: will enjoy the ground, but this trip makes him a contender with questions.
Sinfonietta 5-8-9 (92) Dr 2
01 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (280) 8f gd/sf Donc (97) 12/1 0.75l 2/21 off 90
Tracked leaders towards far side, headway and close up over 3f out, led over 1f out and soon ridden, driven and edged right inside final furlong, headed last 100yds, kept on
Gelded prior to the start of last season, won on his return before being narrowly defeated over 7f at Goodwood and finishing 4th to Azraff in last year’s renewal here off (91); ran creditably in his final 2 starts as well; solid effort on return when putting in a career best to finish runner-up to Ballet Concerto in the Spring Mile at Doncaster with Candelisa (+4) 1l back in 3rd; has been raised 2lbs for that, but may be better suited by the softer ground today and only 1lb higher than last year.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: up 2lbs; 49-day break;
Verdict: poor win record overall, but hasn’t stopped improving since being gelded and a contender.
Candelisa 4-8-11 (94) Dr 9
01 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (280) 8f gd/sf Donc (97) 25/1 1.75l 3/21 off 94
In touch towards far side, pushed along 3f out, ridden to chase leaders 1 1/2f out, soon driven and kept on well final furlong
Just an Ayr mdn as a 2yo to his name but generally put in sound efforts as a 3yo, especially when raised to 8f at York last August; bit of a blip on his final start at Carlisle, but recorded another career best when 3rd in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his return just 1l behind Sinfonietta (-4); meets him on 2lbs better terms today so should be closer between the pair.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); trainer (14d); form run lto;
Minus: going; course (?); 49-day break;
Verdict: running well without winning and a possible contender.
El Hayem 4-8-8 (92) Dr 13
12 May Cl 2 Hcap (187) 7.5f gd/fm Chest (105) 13/8 F 1.25l 2/11 off 90
Missed break, midfield, not clear run from 2f out until headway over 1f out, challenging inside final furlong, not pace of winner towards finish
Just a Doncaster mdn win from 4 starts as a 3yo and gelded between seasons; made a promising return in finishing 6/21 in the Spring Cup here and then can be classed an unlucky loser at Chester; has been raised 2lbs for that, which should not prove an insurmountable amount; bigger challenge today may be how he handles the ground, as Invincible Spirit progeny are far better on quick ground that on soft.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (8 days);
Minus: going (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: looks a winner waiting to happen, but the softer ground must raised doubts about whether today’s the day, so a contender with a question.
Mutarakez 5-8-4 (87) Dr 15
Most horses improve after gelding, but I guess this one is the exception that proves the rule for after winning 3 of his 5 starts as a 3yo off as high as 95, he is 0/7 since and is now plying his trade off an 8lbs lower mark; sooner or later his mark will fall low enough to enable him to collect prize money again, but he hasn’t been helped the last twice by trouble in running; however, once I can buy but not twice in a row, plus stable is cold of late (0/20).
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: going; course (?); trainer (14d);
Verdict: must surely win again one day, but not a contender for me.

Competitive race to be the final one on the card plus made more complicated by the wetter weather that has hit the UK this past week. Were the ground on the firmer side of good I’d be very much in El Hayem’s corner but the forecast soft ground raises questions. It will suit Dark Red, although I’m not sure the drop back to 8f will. It will also suit Withernsea, but he has to prove he can win at 8f rather than 7f. So while I may be proven wrong, that’s two gone from my shortlist to join Mutarakez who has yet to give any indication of regaining his 3yo form. So that leaves me with Sinfonietta and Candelisa to consider alongside El Hayem. None are without a query or two, as the pair from the Spring Mile at Doncaster are not exactly prolific winners, while El Hayem has to prove he can handle the ground. In the hopes I get one right for a change this week, I’m going for Sinfonietta from El Hayem and Candelisa.

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