Sunday 21st May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Sunday 21st May

Postby Devasteve » Sun May 21, 2017 10:37 am

And still the May blues continue, although Withernsea didn't totally surprise as he was always likely to win a decent pot. Still we have a great surprise today, a Sunday with UK Flat racing, and a Cl 2 handicap to boot! Whether that is good or bad news we'll know before the football half-times!

Ripon 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 143 (102) 9f gd – 10 Run (9 at best)

Last year – 142 (93) gd/fm 7 ran
Spring Offensive 7/2 4-8-9 (88) Dr 7 by 0.25l from Steel Train 20/1 5-8-12 (87) Dr 3

Snoano 5-9-7 (102) Dr 2
11 May Gr 3 Stks (425) 10.5f gd Chest (114) 25/1 5.1l 5/6 off 102
Held up, effort on inner to chase leaders over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong
11 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (156) 19f gd Pont (103) 6/1 2.25l 1/9 off 95
Tracked leaders on inner, headway 3f out, switched right and ridden to chase leader over 1f out, soon led, kept on strongly
Moving from Gosden to Easterby’s care last season had a busy time of it but won 2 of his 13 starts on gd/sf at York and Ayr; returned in fine style in putting in a career best when winning at Pontefract last month; sights set a little high lto when contesting a Gr 3 at Chester; ran well on gd here last season when runner-up to Soldier In Action over 12f in July; interesting dropping back into handicap company, despite giving 12lbs or more to the whole field; however, stable not in much form of late (1/43) and has not won over less than 10f since his 2yo days.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (10 days); down in class;
Minus: distance (?); trainer form (14d); drop in trip;
Verdict: improved form this season, but worries over trip in giving weight to the field and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Knight Owl 7-8-12 (93) Dr 1
24 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (129) 8f gd Leic (100) 8/1 2.75l 4/10 off 94
Chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish
29 Aug Cl 2 Hcap (126) 8f gd/sf Rip (99) 7/1 0.05 2/14 off 92
Dwelt slightly, soon midfield, ridden 3f out, steady headway from 2f out, edged ahead 50yds out, kept on, headed post
Put in a career best when just going down to Treasury Notes over 8f here at the end of August; however, disappointed when finishing down the field in the Cambridgeshire, although showed better at Leicester on his final run in late October; did win over this distance when taking the Sussex Stks at Newmarket on his return last season and has won on ground from gd/sf to gd/fm.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down 1lb;
Minus: 209-day break; back up in trip;
Verdict: gets on well with young claimer and a possible contender if fit for season return.
Gurkha Friend 5-8-9 (90) Dr 6
29 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (97) 8f gd Rip (91) 11/2 1.5l 1/13 off 86
Made all, ridden over 2f out, kept on well
Gelded between seasons and after a promising return at Musselburgh, made all when taking a Cl 3 here at the end of April with Miss Van Gogh (-2) 3.5l back in 5th; race hasn’t turned up any winners since, however, and he runs off a 4lbs higher mark in higher class today; in addition, he failed to get home in 2 attempts at around 10f last season, so possible something to prove about distance too.
Plus: going (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days);
Minus: class; distance (?); up 4lbs; up in class;
Verdict: unproven stamina for a horse that likes to be up with the pace means he’s a contender with questions upped in class.
Weekend Offender 4-8-8 (89) Dr 9 (N/R)
12 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (97) 8.5f gd/fm Nott (94) 6/1 1.5l 3/11 off 89
Dwelt and in rear, headway over 3f out, switched right to outer 2f out and soon ridden, stayed on well approaching final furlong
08 Oct Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (218) 8f gd York (94) 5/1 Jt F 0.25l 1/11 off 86
Tracked leaders, headway over 2f out, led 1 1/2f out, ridden and hung left just inside final furlong, soon driven, kept on well towards finish
Gelded after his 2yo days, won 3 of his 7 starts at 3yo including the Cl 2 Coral Stks at York on his final start in October; made a promising return over 8.5f at Nottingham last month and on that running today’s trip should present no problems; however, things have not gone that well since for either trainer or jockey who are 1/44 and 1/43 over the past fortnight, respectively.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); up in class; trainer form;
Verdict: has many pluses, but niggling doubt about trainer form make him a contender with questions.
Miss Van Gogh 5-8-2 (83) Dr 7
29 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (97) 8f gd Rip (91) 14/1 3.5l 5/13 off 84
Switched right start, held up, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and kept on final furlong, nearest finish
Good early season form last year, but rather lost her form from mid-summer onwards; will likely be straighter for the race than on her return behind Gurkha Friend here last month; maybe would prefer more give in the ground , but has won over the extended mile, so should see out the trip and stable was in good form yesterday.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14f); trainer (C); recent form run (22 days); down 1lb;
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: not without a chance if recovering last season’s early form and a contender.

A race full of contra indications! For example, if you follow stable form there is no way you could pick either Weekend Offender or Snoano, although I now see that the former is a non-runner. That has seen Snoano assume favouritism is some books, but not only is the stable way out of form, but he is giving 12lbs or more to the rest of the field and dropping back in trip. Sorry, too many negatives there, so that’s another one struck off my list to leave me with Knight Owl, Gurkha Friend and Miss Van Gogh as final contenders. There is a slight doubt about whether Gurkha Friend can see out the trip, but I also wonder if Miss Van Gogh mightn’t prefer a bit more give in the ground. Be that as it may, I still think the one they both to beat is Knight Owl who returned to take the 9f Sussex Stks at Newmarket last season and could do something similar this. So for me it’s Knight Owl from Gurkha Friend and Miss Van Gogh.

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